:::: NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | August 18, 2018
Analysis for the Week of August 20, 2018
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Aug. 17, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 146310 immediately is trading down about 14% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. Aug. 16, 2018. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 9/3 in silver followed by the gold target due the week of 9/10. Up to now, we have been declining in this market since the last high was made 6/11 at 164600 for the past 9 weeks.
Taking a broader cyclical perspective, the view which provides a map to the future is particularly important. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2017 and since we have made a new low. This warns that a year-end closing above 171450 would suggest a reversal to the upside is likely into the next target due 2018. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 309760. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 141540.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 7.42% which has been a moderate rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 136200.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 249128 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 168200 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 141300. This provides a 15% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 177460 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 155000. This, of course, gives us a narrower trading range of a 12%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 146310, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 13% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come October in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 151850 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 151850 closing yesterday at 146310. We now need to close below 151850 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bearish immediate tone with resistance at 154650.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 30th at 160700, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 16th. We have been generally trading down for the past 9 weeks, which has been a significant move of .1749%.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 11th reaching 173500 failed to exceed the previous high of 173600 made back during the week of April 16th. That rally amounted to onlysix weeks. Subsequently, the market has breached that low of the week of April 30th and has closed beneath it warning the market is weak. Since then, the market has consolidated for the past 9 weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Honing in on the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-2868 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 2877 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 173500, which was created during the week of June 11th. The previous weekly level low was 160700, which formed during the week of April 30th, and has now been broken in the recent decline. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 162800 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 173500 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during June. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 182900 back during September 2017. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Eyeballing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-660 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 661 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 173500, which was created during June. The previous monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017, and has now been broken in the recent decline. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
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