Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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:::: NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 11, 2018

Analysis for the Week of August 13, 2018

ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Aug. 10, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 152950 so far is trading down about 10% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Aug. 9, 2018. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed below that low. Nonetheless, the market remains rather weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

On a broader cyclical perspective, the view of the future is cleary interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2017 and since we have made a new low. This warns that a year-end closing above 171450 would suggest a reversal to the upside is likely into the next target due 2018. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 309760. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 141540.

The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 12% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 136200.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 249128 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 164860 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 151640. This provides a 8.01% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 177460 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 155000. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 12%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 152950, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 7.22% beneath that level.

Focusing on our timing models, it is possible to see a turning point come October in NY Silver COMEX Futures. Remember to stay on point given this possible development ahead. The last cyclical event was a high established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 151850 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 162600 to 151850. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Our Daily level momentum is bearish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 153050.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of July 16th at 151850, which was down 13 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 16th. This was a key week for at least a temporary low. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of July 16th, which has been a move of.0213%. Nevertheless, we have not elected any Weekly buy signal to date.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Regarding the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 5 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 3 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 173500, which was created during the week of June 11th. The previous weekly level low was 151850, which formed during the week of July 16th, and only a break of 152500 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 162800 above the market.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 173500 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during June. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 182900 back during September 2017. Critical support still underlies this market at 147440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Observing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-660 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 661 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 173500, which was created during June. The previous monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.

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