S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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:::: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 18, 2018

Analysis for the Week of August 20, 2018

THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 17, 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 781633 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's closing of 690339. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Aug. 16, 2018. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains rather weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

Turning to the broader cyclical outlook, the map of the future is certainly interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2017 and since we have made a new low. This warns that a year-end closing above 690339 would suggest a reversal to the upside is likely into the next target due 2018. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 307650.

The historical major high took place here in 2017 and we have since penetrated the low of last year intraday. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 1 year ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have a bullish market in motion for the past 0. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 864342 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 844707 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 741955. This provides a 12% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 896556 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 690106. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 23%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 781633, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 7.46% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during July. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 793331 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 793331 to 744310. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bearish while the cyclical strength indicator is neutral providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 23rd at 793331, which was up 48 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of July 30th, which has been a move of.0363%. Distinctly, we have elected all four Weekly buy signals to date.

Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 27 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 663067, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 780188 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 793331, which was created during the week of July 23rd.

Critical support still underlies this market at 690106 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 29 months. The previous monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 741956 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 793331, which was created during July. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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