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Replies to post #64915 on S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends
08/25/18 9:06 AM
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Aug. 24, 2018: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 794597 and is trading up about 15% for the year from last year's closing of 690339. So far, we have been trading up for the past 7 days since the reaction low made on Wed. Aug. 15, 2018, but the key low was made 19 days ago on Mon. Jul. 30, 2018 at 760424. We did close above the previous session's high and the market remains quite strong. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Taking a broader cyclical perspective, the view which provides a map to the future is particularly important. and since we have made a new low. This warns that a year-end closing above 690339 would suggest a reversal to the upside is likely into the next target due 2018. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 307650.
The historical major high took place here in 2017 and we have since penetrated the low of last year intraday. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 1 year ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have a bullish market in motion for the past 0. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 864342 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 820045 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 769895. This provides a 6.11% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 896556 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 690106. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 23%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 794597, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 3.10% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during July. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, so far this market has already exceeded that previous high established at 793331. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bullish overall. Last month produced a high at 793331 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 793331 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 801596 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 783714. To date, this rally has been up for seven daily sessions.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 20th at 794970, which was up 52 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 794970 to 778790. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 794970. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 784912 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 20 weeks overall.
Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 28 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 663067, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 773269 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 794970, which was created during the week of August 20th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
Critical support still underlies this market at 690106 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 29 months. The previous monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 741956 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 793331, which was created during July, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
