:::: NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | July 14, 2018
Analysis for the Week of July 16, 2018
THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jul. 13, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today of 124120 so far is trading down about 5.20% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 4 days, while we have made a low at 123620 following the high established Mon. Jul. 9, 2018, this price action warns of at least a pause in trend if not a retest of key support. Only a close above 124860 would imply a retest of the previous high. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed below th that low creating an outside reversal to the downside. Nonetheless, the market remains quite bearish.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have since been in a bearish trend overall for 6 years. The correction since that high has been 45% with the next general key area to watch will be 93107 and a closing below this area would technically confirm an important correction is unfolding. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 158834 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 133770 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 123820. This provides a 7.43% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 127690 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 123820. This, of course, gives us a narrower trading range of a 3.03%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 124120, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 7.21% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, so far this market has already broken that previous low established at 124690. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a low at 124690 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 124690 closing yesterday at 124120. We now need to close below 124690 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bearish immediate tone with resistance at 126020. To date, this decline has been down forfour daily sessions.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 9th at 136940, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. We have been generally trading down for the past 4 weeks, which has been a sharp move of .0584%.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 11th reaching 131300 failed to exceed the previous high of 136940 made back during the week of April 9th. That rally amounted to onlythree typical reaction weeks. Subsequently, the market has breached that low of the week of May 21st and has closed beneath it warning the market is weak creating an outside reversal, which is holding technical support at 124937. Since then, the market has consolidated for the past 4 weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136940 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during April. Critical support still underlies this market at 123820 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 2 months. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
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