Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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:::: NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 7, 2018

Analysis for the Week of July 9, 2018

WRITTEN OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Jul. 6, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today of 125580 so far is trading down about 4.08% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. Thus far, we traded down the previous day. Immediately, the market was an inside trading session warning of a brief pause in trend0Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 133770 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 124810. This provides a 6.69% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 127690 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 123820. This, of course, gives us a narrower trading range of a 3.03%.

This market on the monthly level has been making a reaction low retesting the previous low of 123830 established back December. The Channel Technical Support resides at 124833, which we are trading below. This does imply weakness and a closing below that will signal contiunued caution is warranted. Currently, we see projected extreme support below the market residing at 118565.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during June. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, so far this market has already broken that previous low established at 124690. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a low at 124690 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 124690 closing yesterday at 125580. We now need to close below 124690 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 123880.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 9th at 136940, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. We have been generally trading down for the past 3 weeks, which has been a sharp move of .0565%.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 11th reaching 131300 failed to exceed the previous high of 136940 made back during the week of April 9th. That rally amounted to onlythree typical reaction weeks. Subsequently, the market has breached that low of the week of May 21st and has closed beneath it warning the market is weak. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.



Some caution is necessary since the last high 136940 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during April. Critical support still underlies this market at 123820 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Honing in on the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 2 months. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.

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