NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | April 14, 2018
Analysis for the Week of April 16, 2018
WRITTEN VIEW PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 13, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 134790 and is trading up about 2.94% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 133550 following the high established Wed. Apr. 11, 2018. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 135770 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 131310. This provides a 3.28% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 135770 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 126270. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 6.99%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come June in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. Last month produced a low at 130360 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 136540 at month-end to imply a technical reversal of trend to the upside for now.
Regarding the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.2% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. Nonetheless, turning to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 417.5% from the strategic low established during 1999, which has been a 18 year rally from that key event.
Regarding the near-term level, the market has closed down 4.95% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Now turning to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 31.9% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish reflecting support forming at 135680. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bullish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 9th at 136940, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 136940 to 133010. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of April 9th reaching 136940 has exceeded the previous high of 136540 made back during the week of January 22nd. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 130660. Additional support is to be found at 131320. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 17 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.
Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 17 weeks. The last weekly level low was 123830, which formed during the week of December 11th, and only a break of 132260 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the weekly level was 136940, which was created during the week of April 9th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally. However, we still remain below key resistance 135040 on a closing basis.
Critical support still underlies this market at 126270 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 27 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015, and only a break of 130900 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 136540, which was created during January, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
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