Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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:::: NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 7, 2018

Analysis for the Week of April 9, 2018

WRITTEN OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Apr. 6, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 133610 and is trading up about 2.04% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days. On a broader perspective, this market has been trading down overall for the past 8 days, since the high established Tue. Mar. 27, 2018 following the high established Wed. Apr. 4, 2018. Employing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 134210 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 131620. This provides a 1.92% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 135770 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 126270. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 6.99%.

The last event was a low established during 2016.

A possible change in trend appears due come June in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. Last month produced a low at 130360 and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 136260 to 130360. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Observing the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.2% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. However, from the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 417.5% from the strategic low established during 1999, which has been a 18 year rally from that key event.

Observing the near-term level, the market has closed down 4.95% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Now bearing in mind the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 31.9% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 133270.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of February 26th at 130360, which was down 5 weeks from the high made back during the week of January 22nd. We have seen the market drop shaply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 132730. We are still trading above the Weekly Momentum Indicators so we have not undermined critical support as of yet.

Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 16 weeks. The last weekly level low was 123830, which formed during the week of December 11th, and only a break of 132540 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the weekly level was 136260, which was created during the week of March 26th. However, we still remain below key resistance 134200 on a closing basis.

Critical support still underlies this market at 126270 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 27 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015, and only a break of 130900 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 136540, which was created during January. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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