:::: NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | March 24, 2018
Analysis for the Week of March 19, 2018
ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF Fri. Mar. 23, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 165820 so far is trading down about 3.28% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. So far, we have been trading up for the past 3 days since the low made on Tue. Mar. 20, 2018. Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 172500 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 160400. This provides a 7.01% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 177460 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 161400. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.04%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come April in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. Last month produced a low at 161300 and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 161300 closing yesterday at 165820. We now need to close below 156350 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.8% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. However, from the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 389.1% from the strategic low established during 1991, which has been a 26 year rally from that key event.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed down 19.2% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Now bearing in mind the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 65.5% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish reflecting support forming at 168950. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 22nd at 177050, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. We have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a moderate move of .0470% in a stark panic type decline.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this current rally into the week of March 5th reaching 168950 has failed to exceed the previous high of 177050 made back during the week of January 22nd. We have seen only a minor reaction rally from the last low for the past 3 weeks. A break of the last low will warn of a continued decline ahead. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 161600. Additional support is to be found at 162800. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
This market is neutral for now on all our weekly indicators. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 2 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 168950, which was created during the week of March 5th. The last weekly level low was 156350, which formed during the week of December 11th, and only a break of 162050 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 162800 on a closing basis.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September 2017. Critical support still underlies this market at 160500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Bearing in mind the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 5 months. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017, and the market has turned lower falling to 161000. The last monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017. That is critical technical support and a breach of that low would warn of the potential shift in near-term trend. However, we still remain above key support 162250 on a closing basis.
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