NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | March 17, 2018
Analysis for the Week of March 19, 2018
THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Mar. 16, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 162720 so far is trading down about 5.09% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 3 days, while we have made a low at 162050 following the high established Tue. Mar. 13, 2018, this price action warns that we have a pause in trend. However, we have now elected a Bullish Reversal from this immediate price action and closed on the soft-side at the end of the session failing to bounce sharply from the lows. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 167460 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 160400. This provides a 4.21% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 177460 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 161400. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 9.04%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come April in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. Last month produced a low at 161300 and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 173750 to 161300. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
Regarding the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.8% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. Nonetheless, turning to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 389.1% from the strategic low established during 1991, which has been a 26 year rally from that key event.
Regarding the near-term level, the market has closed down 19.2% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Now turning to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 65.5% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 166500. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both neutral reflecting resistance forming at 162600.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of February 5th at 161300, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of January 22nd. We have seen the market drop shaply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 163300. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We can see this market has been down for the past week. The last high on the weekly level was 168950, which was created during the week of March 5th. The last weekly level low was 156350, which formed during the week of December 11th. That is critical technical support and a breach of that low would warn of the potential shift in near-term trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 162800 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September 2017. Critical support still underlies this market at 160500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still holding. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 5 months. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. The last monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July 2017. That is critical technical support and a breach of that low would warn of the potential shift in near-term trend. However, we still remain above key support 162250 on a closing basis.
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