A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[ls7550]

Ocroft analysis

Running AIM on historic data back to 1871 (US stocks price only) monthly reviews and for all by the book AIM trades, measuring the average cost of stock across sequential same direction trades compared to the next months share price where no further same direction AIM trade was indicated provided 184 measures, 41 buys (where a count of 1 involved multiple AIM buys in some cases), 143 sales (count of 1 involved multiple AIM sales in some cases).

For buys, delaying to buy at the next no-AIM-trade indicated timepoint resulted in a marginal price improvement of just -0.1% average lower price across all such trades i.e. delaying the actual purchase trade to a single purchase point after AIM was no longer indicating one or more sequential buys was marginally better than by the book AIM cost averaging of share purchases. For sales however the average price improvement by delaying was +1.2%.

So ocroft style of delaying buying (selling) until the market was "on the right side of the trade"

to be on the right side of the market.
In this instance, when the stock is in an uptrend, be long. When the stock is in a downtrend, be short or in our case, be out of the market. AIM uptrend is on the right side of the market.
However, BTB AIM accumulates on the wrong side of the market.

seems to have worked on average, but more so on the sell side. Despite the very small average improvement on the buy side, delaying so as to use a single timepoint/purchase potentially has other advantages, such as

My view is that if a stock that is really going to zero, it would not have enough momentum to make enough aim uptrends moves to absorb its cash reserve.