A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[ocroft]

Hi Conrad,
In one of my post I made the comment that the stock market is man made and repetitive.
You replied, " In that case when Enron rebounces we know when to get out before it collapses!

Conrad, as I explained in a reply, the Idea was to be on the right side of the market.
In this instance, when the stock is in an uptrend, be long. When the stock is in a downtrend, be short or in our case, be out of the market. AIM uptrend is on the right side of the market.
However, BTB AIM accumulates on the wrong side of the market. Enron proves this fact. A stock going to zero results in complete loss of capital.
Cash reserves should not be released while the stock is in an downtrend move.
Ones does not know how low the stock (Enron)will go before an uptrend move occurs.
Let the stock dictate your move.("Markets are never wrong, opinions often are".)

Here are the actual Enron price stock movement from 1997 to 2002
Enron Daily prices from 01/01/1997 to 12/31/2002.

http://www.gilardi.com/pdf/enro13ptable.pdf

I was curious to know how the aim BTB (uptrend method) would have fared before the collapse.
AIM BTB uptrend method is based on this one change; using BTB aim, the accumulation of shares are not acquired while the stock is in an aim downtrend move.
The shares are acquired only when the stock makes an aim uptrend move.
With this simple change , here is the results using $20,000/50-50/10% Buy/Sell parameters. Had $16,743 left in reserve. Loss $3,267 or 18.7%.
Huge accomplishment for a stock collapsing to zero.
My view is that if a stock that is really going to zero, it would not have enough momentum to make enough aim uptrends moves to absorb its cash reserve.
Now, some aimers keep bringing up MACRO. However, this requires bringing in an outside source. Charts.
From my brief observation, the MACRO and the aim uptrend is occurring at about the same time.
In other words, when the aim uptrend has occurred, the MACRO 7/14 or 13/30 has or it is about to occur. So, charts don't need to be introduced.
However, I will conclude that using TA for confirmation could be a good thing.
Sometimes I will look at the MACD, crossing below center, to try to determine if this is a " good bottom"
Again the aim BTB (uptrend method) result was an 18.7% loss in a stock that went to zero.
Regular AIM would be required to accumulate to the zero level,
hence, complete loss of capital.
Both these were on auto-pilot starting 01/01/1197.
No embellishment.

Now, Conrad (Vortex); without using the aim (delayed) uptrend method or embellishments, I am curious to know how your present method of Vortex aim would have fared on auto-pilot using Enron's actual stock prices starting on 01/01/1997?

ocroft