NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | January 6, 2018
Analysis for the Week of January 8, 2018
OUR ANALYTICAL OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 5, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6144 and is trading up about 1.68% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Jan. 4, 2018.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. Last month produced a high at 6051 and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 6051 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 6380 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.
At this time, the market has closed on the Yearly level up 131.9% from the strategic low established during 2016, which has been a 1 year rally as of last year.
Regarding the near-term level, the market has closed down 14% from the last cycle high established during 2017, which has been only a move from last year. Now turning to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 58.9% from the strategic high established during 2008, which has been a 9 year move.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 6074
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 1st at 6221, which was up 28 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been asignificant move of 11% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of January 1st has exceeded the previous high of 5905 made back during the week of November 20th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 4205 made the week of June 19th, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 13 weeks overall.
Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 28 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th, and has now been broken in the recent decline. The last high on the weekly level was 6221, which was created during the week of January 1st, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
Critical support still underlies this market at 4897 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 22 months. The last monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016. The last high on the monthly level was 6051, which was created during December 2017, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
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