NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | December 30, 2017
Analysis for the Week of January 1, 2018
As of the close of Fri. Dec. 29, 2017: At this time, the market remains in a full blown bullish position. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 6053 and 6044. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 5984 and 5993. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 5905 during November. We have now to exceed that level during December implying a continued advance was warranted. Support technically lies now at 5389 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 4558 becomes possible.
NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6042 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's closing of 5372. So far, we have been trading up for the past 11 days since the key low made on Thu. Dec. 14, 2017.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 6001
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 25th at 6051, which was up 27 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been a sharp move of 8.40% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of December 25th has exceeded the previous high of 5905 made back during the week of November 20th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 4205 made the week of June 19th, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 12 weeks overall. Interestingly, the NY Crude Oil Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 5 months since the low established back in June.
Critical support still underlies this market at 4557 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Logically, my long-term study recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Crude Oil Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Crude Oil Futures remains positive since we are trading above last year's high. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2016 which was a 8 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2016, this market has bounced so far this year with this year exceeding last year's high. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2018 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new lows unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the decline as far out as 2021.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 3210 on an annual closing basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 14727 major high established back in 2008.
Addressing the immediate trend remains bullish since November made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed higher. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 5451. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, the last week of 12/25 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 27 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th. The last high on the weekly level was 6051, which was created during the week of December 25th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 5 months. The last monthly level low was 4205, which formed during June. The last high on the monthly level was 5905, which was created during November.
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