NY Silver COMEX Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | December 16, 2017
Analysis for the Week of December 18, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Dec. 15, 2017: The market is in a bullish posture near-term suggesting it is positive on a daily level, but it is still trading below the December 2016 high, however this was an inside trading day so technical closing support lies at 158550 and a close beneath that will suggest a retest of support first. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 161202 and 160632. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 159152 and 159202. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come this month in NY Silver COMEX Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month. Respectfully, we are still trading neutral within last month's trading range of 173850 to 163450. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 160630 and is trading up about 0.46% for the year from last year's closing of 159890. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, but this has been an inside trading session warning caution following the high established Wed. Dec. 13, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish reflecting support forming at 170800. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 156350
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 2nd at 163450, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of September 4th. We have been generally trading down for the past 4 weeks from the high of the week of November 13th, which has been a significant move of 10% percent. Looking at this from a broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 13th reaching 173850 has failed to exceed the previous high of 174950 made back during the week of October 16th. We have seen only a minor reaction rally from the last low for the past 3 weeks. A break of the last low will warn of a continued decline ahead. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September. Critical support still underlies this market at 160500 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Methodically, my broader-term outlook recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Silver COMEX Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Silver COMEX Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 212250 and 137300. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 212250 to 137300. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 212250 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 185060.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 83000 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 185060, while support immediately lies down at 83000 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 498200 major high established back in 2011.
Honing in on the immediate trend remains bearish since November made new lows and we have penetrated that low so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed lower. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 12/11 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Inspecting the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 4 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 173850, which was created during the week of November 13th. The last weekly level low was 151450, which formed during the week of July 10th. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 166000 above the market. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 2 months. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September. The last monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July. However, we still remain above key support 162250 on a closing basis.
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