NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | December 16, 2017
Analysis for the Week of December 18, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Dec. 15, 2017: The market is in a bullish posture near-term suggesting it is positive on a daily level, but it is still trading below the December 2016 high. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 126452 and 125752. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 125522 and 125552. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come January 2018 in NY Gold Nearest Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month. Respectfully, we are still trading neutral within last month's trading range of 130040 to 126590. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 125750 and is trading up about 9.18% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. So far, we have been trading up for the past 3 days since the low made on Tue. Dec. 12, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish reflecting support forming at 129700. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 123830
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 2nd at 126280, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of September 4th. We have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks from the high of the week of November 27th, which has been a move of 4.77% percent in a stark panic type decline. Looking at this from a broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 27th reaching 130040 has failed to exceed the previous high of 130840 made back during the week of October 16th. We have seen only a minor reaction rally from the last low for the past 3 weeks. A break of the last low will warn of a continued decline ahead. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136240 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during September. Critical support still underlies this market at 121420 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Methodically, my broader-term projection recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 68090 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 130790, while support immediately lies down at 68090 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 192370 major high established back in 2011.
Inspecting the immediate trend remains bearish since November made new lows and we have penetrated that low so far this month. This is warning to pay very close attention since last month had closed higher but the upward momentum has been lost. With this pattern in motion, we should be on point here for there is the risk of a change in near-term trend if the reversals give way. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 12/11 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Inspecting the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 2 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 130040, which was created during the week of November 27th. The last weekly level low was 120400, which formed during the week of July 10th. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 126640 above the market. For now on a broader perspective, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 23 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 136240, which was created during September. However, we still remain below key resistance 129880 on a closing basis.
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