NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | December 2, 2017
Analysis for the Week of December 04, 2017
As of the close of Thu. Nov. 30, 2017: The market is in a bearish posture near-term for now on the daily level. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 5800, 5742 5743, . Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 5684. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 5905 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 5905 to 5389. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 5740 and is trading up about 6.85% for the year from last year's closing of 5372. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Wed. Nov. 29, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum is bearish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 5755
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 20th at 5905, which was up 22 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week from the high of the week of November 20th, which has been a move of 3.89% percent in a stark panic type decline. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 20th has exceeded the previous high of 5286 made back during the week of September 25th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 4205 made the week of June 19th, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains in a bearish mode right now warranting caution. From a wider viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 9 weeks overall. Interestingly, the NY Crude Oil Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 5 months since the low established back in June.
Critical support still underlies this market at 4557 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Methodically, my broader-term study recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Crude Oil Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Crude Oil Futures remains positive since we are trading above last year's high. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2016 which was a 8 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2016, this market has bounced so far this year with this year exceeding last year's high. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2018 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new lows unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the decline as far out as 2021.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 3210 on an annual closing basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 14727 major high established back in 2008.
Aiming on the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of November 20th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 5451. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 23 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th. The last high on the weekly level was 5905, which was created during the week of November 20th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 5 months. The last monthly level low was 4205, which formed during June. The last high on the monthly level was 5905, which was created during November.
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