NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | November 25, 2017
Analysis for the Week of November 27, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Nov. 24, 2017: At this time, the market remains in a full blown bullish position. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 5907 and 5897. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 5777 and 5807. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come January 2018 in NY Crude Oil Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 5485 during October. We have now to exceed that level during November implying a continued advance was warranted. Support technically lies now at 4910 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 4365 becomes possible.
NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 5895 and is trading up about 9.73% for the year from last year's closing of 5372. So far, we have been trading up for the past 8 days since the reaction low made on Tue. Nov. 14, 2017, but the key low was made 35 days ago on Fri. Oct. 6, 2017 at 4910. We have advanced 0.nf% from the previous day implying the market is still very strong.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 5722
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 20th at 5905, which was up 22 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been a very dramatic move of 20% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 20th has exceeded the previous high of 5286 made back during the week of September 25th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 4205 made the week of June 19th, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 12 weeks overall. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 4 months.
Critical support still underlies this market at 4357 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Logically, my long-term projection recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Crude Oil Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Crude Oil Futures remains positive since we are trading above last year's high. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2016 which was a 8 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2016, this market has bounced so far this year with this year exceeding last year's high. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2018 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new lows unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the decline as far out as 2021.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 3210 on an annual closing basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 14727 major high established back in 2008.
Eyeballing the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of November 13th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 5451. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 22 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th. The last high on the weekly level was 5905, which was created during the week of November 20th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 4 months. The last monthly level low was 4205, which formed during June. The last high on the monthly level was 5524, which was created during January.
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