>>> NY Crude Oil Futures Analysis <<< By: Marty Armstrong | November 11, 2017
Analysis for the Week of November 13, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Nov. 10, 2017: The market is in a bearish posture near-term for now on the daily level warning caution should be taken. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 5737, 5676 5704, . Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 5657. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come January 2018 in NY Crude Oil Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 5485 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 5485 to 4910. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 5674 and is trading up about 5.62% for the year from last year's closing of 5372. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 5641, consolidating thereafter following the high established Wed. Nov. 8, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum is bearish while the trend indicator is bullish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 5683
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 6th at 5792, which was up 20 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been a significant move of 17% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 6th has exceeded the previous high of 5286 made back during the week of September 25th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 4205 made the week of June 19th, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 10 weeks overall. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 4 months.
Critical support still underlies this market at 4357 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Diagnostically, my wide-ranging analysis recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Crude Oil Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Crude Oil Futures remains positive since we are trading above last year's high. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2016 which was a 8 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2016, this market has bounced so far this year with this year exceeding last year's high. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2018 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new lows unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the decline as far out as 2021.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 3210 on an annual closing basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 14727 major high established back in 2008.
Bearing in mind the immediate trend remains bullish since October made new highs and we have exceeded that high so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed higher. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 5451. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, the last week of 11/6 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 20 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th. The last high on the weekly level was 5792, which was created during the week of November 6th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 4 months. The last monthly level low was 4205, which formed during June. The last high on the monthly level was 5524, which was created during January.
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