NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | November 25, 2017
Analysis for the Week of November 27, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Nov. 24, 2017: The market is in a bullish posture near-term suggesting it is holding trading above the December 2016 high. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 129332, 128732 129192, . Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 128512. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come January 2018 in NY Gold Nearest Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a low at 126280 and we need to penetrate that level on a monthly closing basis to suggest perhaps a further decline.
NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 128730 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days. On a broader perspective, this market has been trading down overall for the past 5 days, since the high established Fri. Nov. 17, 2017 following the high established Wed. Nov. 22, 2017. We have advanced 0.nf% from the previous day implying the market is still very strong.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is neutral providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 2nd at 126280, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of September 4th. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week from the high of the week of November 13th, which has been a move of 1.80% percent in a stark panic type decline. Looking at this from a broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 13th reaching 129750 has failed to exceed the previous high of 130840 made back during the week of October 16th. We have seen only a minor reaction rally from the last low for the past week. A break of the last low will warn of a continued decline ahead. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now. From a wider viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 5 weeks overall.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136240 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during September. Critical support still underlies this market at 121420 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Expansively, my far-reaching analysis looking forward recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 68090 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 130790, while support immediately lies down at 68090 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 192370 major high established back in 2011.
On the subject of the immediate momentum is Neutral on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of November 13th's low. Some caution is warranted given the fact that last month closed lower. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 11/20 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 19 weeks. The last weekly level low was 120400, which formed during the week of July 10th. The last high on the weekly level was 129750, which was created during the week of November 13th. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The last high on the monthly level was 136240, which was created during September. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. However, we still remain above key support 123650 on a closing basis.
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