Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Nearest Futures Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 28, 2017

Analysis for the Week of October 30, 2017

As of the close of Fri. Oct. 27, 2017: encountering resistance so caution is wisely taken. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 127522 and 127182. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 126382 and 126802. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.

We should see a trend change come December in NY Gold Nearest Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 136240 during September. We need to exceed that level during October to suggest a continued advance is likely. Support technically lies now at 127820 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 123650 becomes possible.

NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 127180 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 9 days, while we have made a low at 126380 following the high established Mon. Oct. 16, 2017.

The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bearish immediate tone with resistance at 129290

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 2nd at 126280, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of September 4th. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of October 23rd, which has been a move of 1.67% percent. Interestingly, the NY Gold Nearest Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 9 months since the low established back in December 2016.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 136240 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during September. Critical support still underlies this market at 121420 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.



Methodically, my broader-term analysis looking forward recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012.

To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 68090 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 130790, while support immediately lies down at 68090 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 192370 major high established back in 2011.

On the subject of the immediate trend remains bearish since September made new lows and we have penetrated that low so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed lower. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 10/23 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We can see this market has been down for the past week. The last high on the weekly level was 130840, which was created during the week of October 16th. The last weekly level low was 120400, which formed during the week of July 10th. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 127820 above the market. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The last high on the monthly level was 136240, which was created during September. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. However, we still remain above key support 123650 on a closing basis.

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