NY Silver COMEX Futures Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | September 23, 2017
Analysis for the Week of September 25, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Sep. 22, 2017: The market is in a bearish posture near-term for now on the daily level warning caution should be taken. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 171002, 169842 170352, . Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 169402. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come this month in NY Silver COMEX Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 176950 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 176950 to 160950. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 169840 and is trading up about 6.22% for the year from last year's closing of 159890. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. Sep. 21, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 173750. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bearish while the cyclical strength indicator is neutral providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 4th at 182900, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of July 10th. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of September 18th, which has been a move of 4.58% percent. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of April for 3 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 1 month.
Critical resistance still stands in this market at 177760 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance becomes possible.
Logically, my long-term analysis looking forward recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Silver COMEX Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Silver COMEX Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 212250 and 137300. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 212250 to 137300. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 212250 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 185060.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 83000 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 185060, while support immediately lies down at 83000 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 498200 major high established back in 2011. To date, this qualifies as a one moneth knee jerk reaction to the upside from the July low in NY Silver COMEX Futures. A monthly closing below 160950 would technically warn of a resumption of the downtrend.
Bearing in mind the immediate momentum is Neutral on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of September 11th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 9/18 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Aiming on the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 2 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 182900, which was created during the week of September 4th. The last weekly level low was 151450, which formed during the week of July 10th. However, we still remain above key support 165600 on a closing basis. For now on a broader perspective, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the monthly level. Here we have rallied for the past month. The last monthly level low was 143400, which formed during July. The last high on the monthly level was 186550, which was created during April. However, we still remain below key resistance 176350 on a closing basis.
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