Wednesday, September 20, 2017 11:47:25 PM
I wonder how many heads are spinning tonight after the conference? How many hadn't seen Polymer Photonics coming? How many have heard ad nauseum about Lithium Niobate, have wondered just when Silicon Photonics or Galium Arsenide would ever revolutionize waveguide modulators or anything else in data centers bringing forth a game changing 400 Gbps solutions that hit most of function targets or are economically feasible? How many are talking to colleagues tonight about what they heard?
How many in big companies have heard whispers about a radical change that could disrupt markets? Who relates it to their VP's in charge of development saying, "We have to talk with Dr. Lebby!"
To use a classic Malcom Gladwell reflection, we will see a tipping point in adoption of this technology in terms of being possible, and when that happens ... look out. When this technology first gets to buzzing as possibly being disruptive, who will have to own the only company that offers the solution that is patented and protected by trade secrets.
When will someone dig deep and write in science journals about this technology as being the next great thing, cutting data power bills by millions (60% less power required), faster, cheaper, scalable ... fully compatible with CMOS production, Silicon Photonics and/or existing Lithium Niobate solutions. The only one that could possibly meet $1/Gbps customer requirements.
I have ALWAYS (for 10 years) maintained that greed will win here. The big boys know about this technology because Tom and Jim went to them years ago. When will one of them blink so they don't miss out on a partnership possibility? How fast does that happen? What of the first whisper of an impending partnership when someone just has to get in and own 100,000 or 250,000 shares before everything changes? What about the analyst who knows about this company and can make sense of the technology but is reluctant to write about it because it is an OTCBB listed stock now. They could make a name for themselves, but would have to defy convention by initiating coverage before it hits a more senior exchange. Who will push that envelope in order to make their clients a boatload of money?
Someone will blink and their will be a tipping point... and just when will the shorts realize they are in a no win predicament with this issue and must cut their losses and fast?
Its all coming...
Best to the longs,
F2
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