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Sunday, June 11, 2017 12:23:25 PM
Yes that looks pretty good to me.
I have really enjoyed looking at your data. You are not a dope.
Sometimes this is really tough to analyze. I would like to be able to post my entire spreadsheet but I haven't figured out how to do that on this board like you are able to.
Basically I've developed a spreadsheet with 331 Rows. Each row represents a patient. I then put in the dates of their entry and formulate the analysis that way.
One can then model different scenarios. Unfortunately We don't have a lot of precise data points so we end up somewhat with educated guesses. I utilized the worst case scenario, because we did have defined dates of entry and we knew the number of failures as of July 15, 2017. So I figured, that was our best "known" dataset.
We could run this with additional data points that you and flipper and others have just to see what would happen. But the uncertainty goes up when we don't have defined points. And that worries me.
Fortunately however my review, the worst case scenario, wasn't all that bad. So I expect the actual curves, when published will be better than what my worst case scenario showed.
Alpha
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