I like your post.
''The only thing constant is change.'' Heraclitus
And...
“Uncertainty is the only certainty there is, and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.”
? John Allen Paulos
My best judgment is that it is premature for anyone to say anything definitively.
Most great investments begin in discomfort. The things most people feel good about – investments where the underlying premise is widely accepted are unlikely to be available at bargain prices. Rather, bargains are usually found among things that are controversial, that people are pessimistic about, and that have maybe have performed badly for a long while (look at the long term chart for AVXL - AVXL's stock performed badly for a long time). Buying AVXL stock has at times been uncomfortable. Sometimes it is uncomfortable owing AVXL stock. It is NEVER easy to do things that entail discomfort, but being uncomfortable comes with the territory when investing in new ideas.
Innovative ideas like this, AVXL's new forms of drugs, have to be lonely. By definition, non-consensus ideas that are popular and widely held or obvious are an oxymoron. Thus, such new ideas are oxymoron and uncomfortable. Non-conformists don’t enjoy the warmth that comes with being at the center of the herd. Unconventional ideas often appear imprudent because what AVXL is doing is something that is NOT "what everyone does.” You will never make any serious money doing what everyone else does. Most of the other drug companies, big pharma, are doing something else -- something else that's not working.
This is really the bottom-line: whether you dare to be different. Do you dare to look wrong. Any new, innovative, revolutionary idea has to go through the stage of looking wrong because you are doing something that no one else is doing.
As an investor, don't worry about the herd thinks or is doing. Do diversify your investments (don't invest money here that you cannot afford to lose). However, do not believe that you should never buy so much of something that if it doesn’t work or that you will look bad. If you worry about temporarily looking bad you must understand that it will keep you from buying enough of something that works for it to make much of a difference for the better.
Continue to do due diligence. I do that. So far, I think Anavex may be disruptive. Remember Kodax? A Kodax employee first developed a digital camera, but Kodax rejected this new technology. Kodax could not fathom change. Kodax went bankrupt. I will maintain my long position waiting to see what results emerge. However, it will take time. In the meantime, I struggle to have patience. I watch and listen, but I ignore all of the noise. I have been long for several years. Although I have bought and sold small amounts here and there, I have continually increased my position. I think I am right. If you think you are right, sit tight!
