We all share your incredulity at the lack of overwhelming interest/ speculation in the stock. The lack of it raises questions... when something looks to good to be true, it usually is.
That being said, everytime I complete another due diligence round to convince myself the stock is over valued... I end up buying more. (Added more at 4.15 yesterday). But to your point, either the market needs to catch up to our understanding... or the market is pricing this accurately and we are missing something.
Here are the major risks/mitigations as I see them.
Foreign trial
The trial in Australia could put off many investors. I haven't yet found solid reason to doubt the hospital or investigator but even I will be more comfortable when a U.S. arm confirms results
Adaptive trial with no placebo
Evaluating the output of an adaptative trial seems like a major hurdle for investors. They seem to get as far as "no placebo" and decide to wait for more detail. The adaptive trial seems to tell one more... not less... about what will happen in phase 3 but I didn't start out believing that before my research. That being said, I still am not 100% certain of the games that might be able to be played by a bad actor in an adaptive trial. Probably enough uncertainty to give people pause.
New and unproven target
I am not certain why the Sigma receptor target has been passed over for others. In addition to natural efficacy concerns, it may have something to do with the fear of side effects as Sigma appears in many systems. That being said, the clean safety profile of 273 seems to lay those fears to rest. But the media and most investors will wait for confirmation from academia or industry before jumping on the train.
Small company with no resources
This is a very valid fear. How does a very small dog with a very large bone not only fund research but protect itself from an endless series of frivolous but expensive lawsuits that are sure to come? The obvious answer is a BP patron/partner. But this risk remains open until a partnership is announced.
Patent
The lack of 100% clarity here is clearly a risk. Missling appears to be doing the right things here but clearly the lack of funds makes the company vulnerable on patent issues. Open questions on how AVXL can protect its ownership might give investors pause. Is the nature of this compound such that a competitor can make a small change and challenge endlessly in court? Another nightmare scenario is a big player backing the Greek inventor for a patent dispute. The one consolation here is that the potential market cap is so large that even ending up with a small slice will reward investors. (If the return justifies the risk taken is less clear)
Rival solution
Are there other more promising long shots out there to bet on? I haven't found them but perhaps the market has.
This is the landscape as I see it which explains why many investors steer clear of this opportunity. What this does NOT explain is why knowledgeable and deep pocketed speculators haven't jumped in hard. Yes there is institutional buying and yes all accumulators that don't wish to see a spike in the price and will work together to suppress. But the float is small enough that a big player moving in hard would have dramatic effect and we are not seeing someone pulling that trigger. Why not? Unknown.
For now, I keep looking at the risks... which are real... and the reward potential which is equally real. And I remind myself that when people were still riding around in horse drawn Conestoga wagons, it took 100 years for someone to nail a board on the side and call it a hand brake. Sometimes the herd just misses the win in front of their face... and that is called opportunity.
Cheers
