CVR REFINING (CVI)

[jugs]

Strange that the article you quote (via link) is one I found particularly offensive. It seeks to lead the naïve and others incapable of gathering critical information with which to ply a common sense fabric.. It plays to stupid and offers less. Not normally one to sit quietly when I might yell
"FIRE! FIRE!"---I chose to sit that one out. Let someone else take up the branding iron & inspire the sweet smell of barbeque on the hoof. You did, Michael!

CVRR has never been a favorite of mine. I usually limit my position to about 500 units with a possible topside of 800. I'm unable to explain this as my trades have always been nicely profitable.

Still, I find NTI and ALDW more to my liking. And, in the back of my mind, I don't like having to worry about Icahn pulling the rug from out under me.

In my mind, things are pointing to a deteriorating case for building any position in CVRR. While not one to run in fear from significant risk, I dislike losing. lol And right now my sense is telling me to be more than mildly cautious for there is nothing on hand to provide a worthwhile catalyst justifying great expectations.

CVRR closed yesterday at $19.22. If it drops down towards the $18.50 range by midweek, I won't consider taking a position. This is because of the momentum factor that would have me thinking we're likely to drop below $18 fairly soon. I don't trust the way this company trades. I always have the feeling there's a great amount of manipulation happening. Whether my instincts have it right or now is immaterial. What is important is that I continue listening to myself for my instincts and manner of processing are whut brung me to the dance. It's not the time to switch partners.

Again, I'll advise folks to resist the temptation to pile on board simply because units are well off their recent highs. Oil is also well off its highs along with many other items. Old prices don't change to the downside because of error. They drop because they no longer belong at previous highs. It is a major trading mistake to presume that a drop is necessarily a bargain merely because we may have grown accustomed to seeing something at a higher valuation.

It may be a correction that actually CORRECTS! Imagine that! lol