Looking back at a longer time horizon I pulled these numbers from my own files:
Return with and without AIM - May 30, 2010 to Sept 19, 2014
Symbol Share Price Change AIM Value Change AIM Capture Ratio
BMPSX 70.30% 71.90% 102.3%
FXZ 75.75% 56.20% 74.2%
IYM 62.28% 47.40% 76.1%
PYZ 111.40% 81.80% 73.4%
(all results are exclusive of dividends or interest)
I don't have the SPDR XLB etf modeled, so am leaving it out. However, in looking at their track records over this same period of time I see that XLB and IYM were virtually indistinguishable. That would lead me to believe it would have turned in similar results for Mr. Buynhold and Mr. AIM.
The AIM Capture Ratio is the difference between Buy/Hold and AIM's success over this period. PYZ had the lowest price swings to the buy side over this period, so did slightly less buying than the others. (NOTE: PYZ and the rest of the PowerShares sector ETFs have changed format to momentum filtering as of Feb, 2014, so going forward it may behave differently) BMPSX dipped the deepest and therefore did the greatest buying (raising Portfolio Control the most) so here shows the highest AIM Capture Ratio for the period. Note that having the highest capture ratio didn't give it the highest total return for the period.
From the above, we can see that even while using the same universe of stocks, ETFs and Funds can behave differently because of the method of selection of companies for the funds. There really are differences, but there is no consistent winner for all 9 business sectors. Also, remember that the "game" isn't over yet. Will it be the one with the greatest AIM capture ratio that will win in another 5 years or will it be the one with the greatest price appreciation over that time frame?
