InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[blueskywaves]

 
 1Q2003 GLOBAL WIRELESS HANDSET MARKET 
 By Units and Market share 
 Source:  Gartner 
  
                        Units        Market Share 
 . 
 Nokia                  39.5M           35.0% 
 Motorola               16.6M           14.7% 
 Samsung                11.9M           10.5% 
 Siemens                 8.6M            7.6%     
 Sony/Ericcson           5.4M            4.8% 
 LG                      5.0M            4.5% 
 Panasonic               3.9M            3.4% 
 NEC                     2.9M            2.6% 
 Others                 19.9M           16.8% 
 . 
 Total                 112.7M          100.0% 
 

100% penetration or $1B a year in royalties is a stretch, but recurring royalties of $150M-$200M in 2003 would be very good start for IDCC. It increases the credibility of their claims that they can generate x amount from 2G and at least 2x amount from 3G.

More importantly, however, this baseline revenue level will support more R&D in the kind of competitive wireless environment sketched out in these articles below.

Obviously, the vendor that stands still in this cut-throat wireless environment, loses.

Good-Bye 3G - Hello Wi-Fi Frappuccino

....The goal for T-Mobile and similar wireless providers is a seamless network, where one device hops from the Wi-Fi network to the cellular network with ease. Call it communications convergence: a blissful harmony of technologies, invisible to the consumer, that allows broadband access anywhere, anytime, from any device. Despite significant technical hurdles (not the least of which is a lightning-quick power drain), chipset makers like Intel and Qualcomm are experimenting with built-in Wi-Fi, and dual-action handsets are on their way. Samsung and HP have already shown PDA-based Wi-Fi phones; Motorola has promised one by the end of the year.

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.05/unwired/convergence.html?pg=2&topic=&topic_set=

Beyond Wi-Fi: The 5 next big things

Ultrawideband

This superfast, short distance wireless technology promises data speeds 10 times faster than Wi-Fi. It works by transmitting its signal over a wide swath of frequencies, including licensed bands, at such a low power that it doesn't interfere with the other occupants of the spectrum

Mesh Networks

One of the most highly anticipated technologies, mesh networking turns nearly any wireless device into a router, creating an ad hoc network. Members of a network no longer rely on a central routing hub to distribute data - instead, the information hops from one user's gadget to another until it gets where it's going. Each connected cell phone, PDA, or laptop pitches in a little routing power, forming a spontaneous, temporary wireless cooperative.

Software-defined radios

Software-defined radios can reconfigure themselves automatically to recognize and communicate with each other. This could impose order on the current Babel-like chaos of competing wireless standards (CDMA, GSM, TDMA, and countless others), transforming today's rigid networks into nimble, open systems.

Wireless Personal Area Networks

This short-range technology lets everyone have their own little local wireless network. Within a personal bubble of operating space, PCs, PDAs, mobile phones, and digital music players detect one another and interact. Defined by the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers as a zone of at least 10 meters (32.81 feet) around a person, WPANs could forever eliminate snarls of cable and wire that booby-trap homes and offices. In their place: wearable, smart computing devices that converse on the fly, as well as new mobile digital payment systems and personal security technologies.

Adaptive radio

Adaptive radio is a move in this direction: a technology that lets wireless devices scout out the spectrum wherever they are, avoiding interference by tuning their transmissions to the available gaps. Such devices can modify their power, frequencies, or timing to suit the environment they find themselves in, making such adjustments at occasional intervals or constantly checking and changing as airwave traffic shifts around them.

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.05/unwired/futurewifi.html