CVR REFINING (CVI)

[jugs]

I was so proud of myself these past couple of weeks, selling off a third of my NTI and moving the money into CVRR. I sensed the NTI distribution would be low whereas CVRR enjoys greater throughput and I sensed the Q numbers would be really strong.

Well I was right but then the worst that could happen did---a fire immediately following the release of Q numbers. Thus we know units must open 96 cents down on the morrow. But over the next week to two, expect units to drop at least twice to three times that amount for production will be severely restrained in Q3. The word is that the refinery will be down for a full month. That means production will be lessened by at least a third.

I saw this last week and decided to stay put in CVRR. I'm not in this for the potential unit appreciation. It's all about quarterly payouts plus exposure to the refining industry.

So while I'd expect production this quarter to result in at least a third less payout, it should be as good as NTI's currently announced 53 cents.

Now, I just hope these opinions of mine prove to be close to reality.