I was pausing previously on parsing conclusions of the attendee versus statements of the presenters.
In that one Q&A bit where the questioner presented a theoretical recapitulation of events the answer firmed up discrimination between statements and audience conclusions.
Previously BS indicated he had traveled to all the big 3 to see how those accounts were, their satisfaction etc. The big 3 were generally happy, there was mention that one felt there was an issue they were having that was being under addressed. BS asked if there was anything else they could do. One of the big 3 responded, 'do you have a VSC solution?'
The VSC Q referenced above presented a timeline of,
RSA demo
Interested big 3 piloting
Prospect represents potential sale ca. product launch.
BS said, yes to RSA interest, yes to pilots, No to it being from the aforementioned big 3 mention, that is was a new customer, and finally affirmed (in so many words) that with respect to the 3/4/5 quarters sale cycle etc that it would be fair to assume that this customer is well along in that cycle and may purchase shortly after launch. I previously hadn't assembled that as a from the horses mouth thing. The questioner did a good job probing this issue by using a reconstruction of events versus the model timelines and stated launch dates.
It is worthy of a hopeful disposition. I'm going with 66.67% chance of an 8-k-ish deal within 4 weeks of launch.
I'm thinking BS is thinking 2,3,4 such deals by ye.
The plan appears to be to squeeze as much dell replacement as possible out of Sam-san-wyy-nec-Mu and to get to cfbe off the backs of VSC.
As Q1 ended with $4m and the PP was $10m and burn is $3-5m depending on dell vs dell replacement. As I am figuring Dell booking $0.5-1m tops, and Samsung is probably booking at least something, I'm going to call burn $4m.
Back adding then extrapolating puts $14m end of Q1, 3.5Qs of cash, claims of a cushion, mentions of some money for marketing and some additional engineering help ... it seems to me the plan calls for Q1'15 to be cfbe. Obviously the anticipated VSC thingy's are pulsey/astroidy in their receipt vs booking etc, butit looks to me like the plan coalesces around things looking decent Q1'15.
The above content is my opinion.
