Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Sam Zell - his other monicker was the “grave dancer” after his propensity and skill at buying distressed properties— see https://www.samzell.com/wp-content/uploads/1982_The_Grave_Dancer.pdf
Re:FGEN
I sold my FGEN at the end of the year for a tax loss; naturally it’s up quite a bit from my sale price. I don’t follow the stock since I suffer from the character flaw/mental disorder which causes me to root for a stock that I’ve sold to go down.
But the press release suggests this is a fairly rare condition, 5/100,000 adults so maybe not much of a market, and the general up market in biotech today is more of a factor than this news.
Re: FGEN miss. The press release is pretty blunt, failure stated in headline. I looked for, but did not see, a discussion of how the endpoint was met in vegetarian bicyclists or another subgroup.
Stock is up anyway.
There's a theme/common question here, is it worthwhile to pay for process/device that saves the patient time (here a shorter process and fewer visits) or longer lasting drug such as Daxxify or, for those unfortunates invested in Ocular Therapeutixs, a longer lasting treatment for wet AMD. In the end, I'm betting competition and patient desires will prove such devices or drugs successful.
Looks like the Dexcom G7 and Libre 3 are pretty similar. However, the Libre 3 is a bit smaller, lasts longer (14 days v 10 days) and is a lot cheaper, $260 for 28 days of the Libre 3 v over $400 for 30 days of the G7. Dexcom claims to be waterproof while Libre is water resistant, I occasionally swim for 10 - 15 minutes or sit in a hot tub, probably OK.
Re: CGM's. I'm considering using a CGM for at least a few months, not diabetic (or prediabetic) but I'm interested in seeing how my glucose fluctuates and what my actual average glucose levels are (as opposed to hbA1c, which is correlated with average glucose levels but can certainly vary). Anyway, I will probably go with the Dexcom, reviews suggest it is easier/better to use with an iPhone.
WSJ headline, "FTC Alerts Nearly 700 Companies About Potential Penalties for Misleading Claims"
WSJ article is here, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ftc-alerts-nearly-700-companies-about-potential-penalties-for-misleading-claims-f240b92b?mod=hp_minor_pos2
List of companies is here:
https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/ftc_gov/pdf/Published-list-Recipients.pdf
Revance is not on the list -- recall the complaint letters by one or two groups dedicated to consumer protection (or, perhaps, helping Botox sales).
I knew about the reduced diffusion and the claim its due to the peptide. I don't recall seeing/hearing his explanation (related to electrical charge).
Hair splitting -- Dr. Brown distinguished between diffusion (whereby Brownian motion causes molecules to mix) and spread, which I believe is sometimes referred to as dispersion.
Re: Dr. Kane podcast. He said two things I hadn't heard before or had forgotton:
(i) a proposed explanation for Daxxify increased response time:
I’m going to guess that therapeutic injections are deeper and more painful compared to cosmetic — if so another advantage to Daxxify.
CLF also announced a $750 senior debt offering, proceeds to be used to repay existing credit line.
https://www.clevelandcliffs.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/584/cleveland-cliffs-announces-proposed-offering-of-750
Verve Therapeutics (VERV) - I am starting to look at this, it is another gene editing company, in fact licensing from BEAM, among others. Its first drug is in phase 1 in the UK and New Zealand and is designed to make a single A to G change in the PCSK9 gene in the liver, downregulating PCSK9 and thereby upregulating LDLR, which clears LDL in the liver, essentially what a PCSK9 inhibitor does via an MAB but in Verve’s case via a genetic manipulation. People with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia have one of three types of mutuations, most commonly their production of LDLR is decreased. Preclinical results were encouraging; this article in the MIT Technology Review discusses it. https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/01/19/1067074/next-for-crispr/
Other details here https://www.vervetx.com/pipeline/
Stock is down 75% from highs, at least partly in reaction to a clinical hold from the FDA, discussed in an 8-K:
Not sure I’d call this “trial” a waste of time. The point was to compare equal but lower than recommended doses of Daxxi and Botox to see if there is a difference in treatment duration at lower doses, presumably if there’s a difference at the lower dose it will persist at the higher. The injector found such a difference— mild confirmation for what the Revance trials showed.
Since he reinjected the botox side but not the Daxxify side in the video, the comparison will certainly not be apples to apples hereafter.
Well, the first flashed videos of patients accompanied by an inspiring pop music background with no doctor commentary. The new one shows the injector analyzing the results at a slower pace. And presumably he knows what to look for.
Pretty favorable to Daxxi. Not sure I see everything the injector sees, but he seemed convinced that the Daxxi is lasting longer and acted faster. Trial design deliberately used lower doses so that differences would appear sooner.
Also three months out is not when the Botox- Daxxify difference would be most apparent, Botox should just be beginning to fade while Daxxify should still be going strong. So the next month or two should be more informative.
My CT scan may have saved my life - calcium score was very good for a 65 year old and but incidental finding was a dilated ascending aorta.
Re: LDL-C. So many people - cardiologists included - continue to focus on the quantity of “bad” cholesterol when it seems that the number of atherogenic particles is a more relevant measure, as measured by, for example, apo B or LDL-P. This is a discussion by lipodologist Tom Dayspring. https://www.lipidcenter.com/pdf/Understanding_the_Entire_Lipid_Profile.pdf
My impressions from talking to my own cardiologist is that doctors are slow to change or just don’t believe that these other measures provide much more information than good ole LDL-C. At one point, I had my LDL-P measured at an outside lab and there was no “discordance” between the LDL-P and LDL-C but for some people, there is.
For me, the links don’t appear if I use the iHub app, but they do if I log in using a browser, Chrome, Firefox and Safari all work to display links on my iPhone.
Fee, fi, fo, fum …
Also doesn’t know the difference between protein and peptide, or that Botox has two proteins (human albumin and neurotoxin associated complexing proteins), two more than Daxxify.
CLF - stock has been quite weak since that price increase was announced. Jittery market can’t explain all of that decline.
Federal regulators announced on Sunday that they would ensure that all depositors of Silicon Valley Bank — which failed Friday — were paid back in full as they rushed to contain fallout from the collapse of the large institution.
The Federal Reserve, Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation announced in a joint statement that ”depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer.”
Yes. They all received generous performance-based restricted stock grants that vested when the FDA approved Daxxify.
Re Foley sale. From the Form 4 SEC filing:
2. Represents the number of shares required to be sold by the Reporting Person to cover tax withholding obligations in connection with the vesting of PSUs. This sale is mandated by the Issuer's sell to cover agreement that requires the satisfaction of tax withholding obligations to be funded by a "sell to cover" transaction and does not represent a discretionary trade by the Reporting Person.
I don't know but looked at the 10-K and the following excerpts are mildly relevant. SVB is not mentioned in the 10-K or 10-Q. I know that in some cases, borrowers from a bank such as SVB are required to maintain a significant balance with the lending bank, I don't think Revance borrowed from SVB, certainly their two large borrowings (the convert and the more recent financing). There is some reference to a modest letter of credit with a required bank deposit, and, although I didn't see any detail about those LC's, the amount in question is relatively small -- I have no reason to believe it's with SVB but don't have actual knowledge. Lastly, I know from finance colleagues at my firm that SVB maintained a program under which customers could seemlessly invest in a pool of bank obligations, with each obligation covered by FDIC insurance (my broker, Morgan Stanley offers a similar product). Bankruptcy of SVB would not infect that program. So that could have been an alternative even were Revance a customer of SVB. But I know nothing about what Revance has done in practice.
From the 10-K:
Restricted Cash
As of December 31, 2021, a deposit totaling $5.0 million was restricted from withdrawal. This amount included a $4.3 million deposit balance related to letters of credit. The remaining $0.7 million related to securing our facility leases and will remain until the end of the leases. As of December 31, 2022, a deposit totaling $6.1 million was restricted from withdrawal. We had a $5.4 million deposit balance related to letters of credit. The remaining $0.7 million related to securing our facility leases and will remain until the end of the leases. These balances were included in restricted cash on the accompanying consolidated balance sheets and within the cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash balance on the consolidated statement of cash flows.
Investments
Investments generally consist of securities with original maturities greater than three months and remaining maturities of less than one year. We do not have long-term investments with remaining maturities greater than one year. . .
Sources and Uses of Cash
We hold our cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments in a variety of non-interest bearing bank accounts and interest-bearing instruments subject to investment guidelines allowing for certain lower-risk holdings such as, but not limited to, money market accounts, commercial paper, and corporate bonds with high credit ratings of A-1 or AAA by a minimum of two major rating agencies. Our investment portfolio is structured to provide for investment maturities and access to cash to fund our anticipated working capital needs.
As of December 31, 2022 and 2021, we had cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments of $340.7 million and $225.1 million, respectively, which represented an increase of $115.6 million. The increase was primarily due to the issuance of shares of common stock in connection with the follow-on offering, net of discounts and commissions of $216.2 million, issuance of the Notes Payable, net of debt discount of $98.2 million, issuance of shares of our common stock in connection with the at-the-market offering program…
Why is that so surprising given the similar inversion in Treasury yields (which, admittedly, only go out to 30 years). https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202303
iHub isn't able to display exponents or subscripts.
And yet, he says, the number of possible molecules that might make drugs, according to the rules of organic chemistry, is 1033 (other estimates have put the number of drug-like molecules even higher, in the realm of 1060). “Compare that number to 10 million and you see we’re not even fishing in a tide pool next to the ocean,” Prakash says. “We’re fishing in a droplet.”
Tesla crash testing -- knowing the love for Tesla that many of you have, I thought I would post a favorable article, linking to some videos posted by Tesla on Japanese Twitter (audio is in English, subtitles Japanese). https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-worlds-first-real-world-crash-test-system/
Their testing seems pretty sophisticated; with all the data they have from Tesla's on the road, they get details about every crash and claim to be able to optimiize when, for example, air bags deploy.
I didn't see any direct testing of Tesla's running head on into emergency vehicles, though.
Chatgp - I asked it a variation of the feathers and bricks weight question to eliminate any extraneous possible ambiguity and got this:
mouton29
Which weighs more, one pound of bricks or two pounds of bricks?
One pound of bricks weighs the same as two pounds of bricks. The quantity of bricks is the same in both cases, only the amount stated is different. The weight of an object is determined by its mass and gravity's force acting on it. Therefore, if the bricks have the same mass, they will weigh the same, regardless of the quantity of bricks mentioned.
Xeomin and Daxxify, which have a smaller molecular footprint than the other toxins, may have an advantage in this regard since smaller is generally better when it comes to averting immunogenicity.
I think the rep was referring to the fact that Daxxify does not use human serum albumin which could potentially be contaminated with HIV proteins as it is a blood derived product.
If you agree to link your Neuralink implant to your Tesla FSD (via convenient ethernet port in your skull), the price of FSD is reduced by 20% and you get bumped up in the installation line from near future to soon.
… my Crown Aesthetics rep yesterday …said she “wouldn’t want an HIV protein in her body”.