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watch out for the iPhone crowd lol
The new site is looking great stuffit! Thanks for your help!
Re: Attn LOTTO options traders
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=30284186
Attn LOTTO options traders:
I just want to issue caution when playing options in this volatile market. I believe there will be another spike over 25 on the VIX soon. That means another round of fear and capitulation in the major indexes, imo. This afternoon's earnings from some of the major players helps support the idea that the DOW will break the March Bear Sterns lows and take the rest of the market down with it.
Let me put it this way. Do you believe in Triple Bottoms on the Dow Jones? I don't. The Dow double bottomed last August and November, then set a new double bottom low in January and March. Tomorrow looks like a crossroads once again.
Whether you are long or short when the trade goes against you, it's IMPERATIVE that you have the discipline to exit your option position ASAP because your recovery will depend on much you are in or out of the money. If you don't know what that means please look it up before you trade options. The more out of the money you are in an option position, the LESS likely your option will recover EVEN IF the stock price recovers.
If the trade moves in your favor then be smart and set a trailing stop to protect your profits. You never know when that internet connection will go out or your computer will crash at the worst moment.
I would also like to recommend to options traders that they try out positions in the major indexes via ETFs like Powershares, Proshares, and SelectSPDR. QQQQs are some of the cheapest and most manageable options available for this purpose. They move in small increments but that can also work to your favor if the trade moves against you. Imo, it makes a lot more sense to trade the movements in the major indexes as opposed to grossly overpriced options and spreads in the front month contracts for other "hot stocks". Sure playing stocks as opposed to indexes can lead to bigger gains, but can you afford to lose in this market?
Good luck!
Re: RIG
I had been trading RIG since 144. Yes it is an unbelievably slow climb. I was really hoping to see RIG close over the $150 strike for xpry. It's like a backward trading stock. I watched it open higher and sell off by lunch this entire week. Definitely one you have to buy later in the day and hope for a gap open in the morning.
It posted a higher high and a higher low this week so my gut tells me the world's most advanced oil driller will break 150 sooner than later.
All eyez on RIMM and AAPL for sure the next two weeks.
Anyone playing options on these comps would be well advised to stick to the QQQQs as a safer way to trade their movements being that front month AAPL and RIMM options tend to be quite expensive with a much higher risk/reward.
Another best case scenario would be to hedge your AAPL/RIMM calls against the much cheaper QQQQ puts or vice versa.
I saw that QQQ RV L2 you posted SL.
I thought about it. The Nasdaq eludes me at times though. Most days it is the pride of the US stock market, while others it tends to weigh everything down as much as a spike in crude prices.
Today was a day one had to "abondon all hope" and I wasn't ready to commit to that emotionally despite what I knew to be the truth. It was a tough call after watching the last two days open up lower and catching the bounce. I truly was convinced xpry had a bounce in store but this Saudi meeting must have some major players nervous in the energy markets.
High Oil/Escalation of ME conflict/Oil strike/Financial insolvency:wash:rinse:repeat::::::::::::
I think I underestimated the large amount of Q2 short interest in this market today. The bounce I expected from a squeeze interest is so large it's been spreading out over the past few days instead of just xpry.
After such a negative morning I opted to sit out and wait for the afternoon. In my experience, xpry Fri. in a triple digit RED market produces a round of short covering around 3:30 before the bell. But we didn't even get that today! Seems as the short interest is so high in the market they've been covering in the days leading up to xpry.
About all I heard on a "bullish" tip this afternoon was the rumor that JPM may put up an offer for Wachovia and WB bounced from $17.00 to $17.50. Oh and SunTrust reiterated their intent to preserve the dividend and refrain from diluting their stock so they bounced from $34.00 to $38.00 with 15 Million short shares covered in the last hour and a half of trading. SunTrust and Wachovia are Southeast US banks here in my neck of the woods.
Probably should have considered buying some July puts on STI and WB at the close for Monday lol. I just took a nap on this market today for the most part. I figured if RIG couldn't make a decent run on contract news then most of the market was doomed.
"The thought of all those savings sitting idle in Chinese, Korean and Indian accounts must be killing them, and they are no-doubt concoting schemes even as we speak to loot those as well. "
I thought that was why oil is going ^ ;)
RIG - Transocean chart.
Should perform well on Friday but will the energy trade unravel?
All technicals point to an investment opportunity.
HELLO from Terry Owens!!!
LOL
Happy to see you all here making the dough in fertilizer, oil/gas, and alt energy!
I hope you're all doing fine! SL I hope you are doing GREAT! The board looks wonderful. Everybody sharing great info. LOTTO is a great place to touch base with.
I'm still trading options so I haven't been around the ol' ihub much but I noticed you guys are playing the big boards with some fair regularity these days.
SL, you have been a great influence on me, particularly when you laid it all out on the table starting last summer regarding the sub-prime market meltdown, the printing press cash free-for-all being dumped into our financial system, and its long lasting effects. Since the beginning of the year I have been mostly playing commodity based stocks or anything that is 180 degrees away from the consumer or financial plays. Your experience and insight has helped me tremendously even though I haven't been a regular poster this year.
Just wanted to say thanks and KEEP IT UP EVERYONE!
My Yahoo puts will be like the 2nd coming of BHUB! LOL
HELLO SL AND LOTTO BOARD!!!
It's me, Terry Owens again just checking in from option land.
I just couldn't help myself last week before Microsoft's "deadline" and now it looks like the lotto is going to pay off.
I had a funny feeling when I did a little research and saw that the CEO of Bear Sterns sits on the Microsoft board. I wonder how many Yahoo puts he picked up in this process?
It was a little too fishy for me when most of the WSJ articles late last week began pointing to a higher Microsoft bid after all the hard nose talk from Steve Ballmer. Yahoo almost made it back to $30 a share last week. Sounded like a pump and dump to me so I jumped on the out of the money puts against Yahoo agreeing to a merger and bought some out of the money calls on Microsoft to rally higher in case they walked away.
Well I guess they finally did walk away. Yeehaw!
Good luck guys and thanks so much for all the valuable insight you all provide here on LOTTO!
TERRYOWENS SAYS HAPPY LEAP YEAR DAY LOTTO!!!!
Hello all!
Hello SL!
It's been a while since I updated you guys. I wanted to let you all know that I am doing GREAT!!! I have been trading options contracts and after a rough initiation (hehe) I have been absolutely killing it in the Agricultural and Energy sectors on the big boards in 2008!
All my time I spent on LOTTO has been paying off! I've also been getting a little help from the Investools website that has the bomb diggity options greeks and statistical info. My goal this year is to start writing call contracts once I become a big balla. lol
Sorry I haven't been around so much this year but rest assure I learned a lot here about the way the market works and I will always be grateful for all the shared knowledge I found here in 2007.
2008 is going well so far. Hope all is the same for you all.
Terry Owens
Looks like my WaMu puts are gonna POP!
Song for THE ENTIRE SOLAR SECTOR!! :)))))))
[Suppressed Sound Link]
Song for NDAQ!
LOVIN MY NDAQ!!!
[Suppressed Sound Link]
Looks like a huge setup coming for the bears in homebuilding after the Fed meeting. I'm feeling you WB!
That's just crazy. I'm really tempted to buy those puts cause the housing news is far from over, imo.
Still long on RIMM, NDAQ, FSLR too!
I hope all the LOTTO looters are doing well!
I've been following the big boards lately and trying my luck in the options market. It's too bad I didn't upgrade my account to options trading at the BEGINNING of November! I was a little late to the bear party. Oh well!
XLF: Hi SL! Well I did great buying the puts on Monday but gave it back on Tuesday and closed the position.
Fed Rate cut rumors are inflating the "rally" this week causing a lot of short covering and profit taking at the same time.
BZH might make a good LOTTO pick? lol
It's stocks like this that let me know today's big rally could be a mirage, imo.
HOW in the world does a stock with 98% short interest and terrible signals move UP for the past two days at the open???
This market rally appears to be TUI trading under the influence of something.
Oh not too much lol. Been surfing on the big boards lately and dealin with some family stuff moving Grandma back up here from Florida.
Some rally today huh?
Do you get the feeling it's all just a mirage?
:shakes head:
Your instincts serve you well. :)
I just heard about the uptick rule change. It's all making sense now. ;)
Why try and beat 'em? I can't short pinks but I CAN buy puts on the big board.
DAL and NWA heavy on the March call options today. Airlines to lead 2008?
Went long puts on WM and CFC this afternoon.
Nice to see Solar UP with Oil going down :)
Solar kickin butt today!
Good Mornin'! I'm doing great. Long NDAQ, RIMM. Thinking about an AMZN posiiton. Looking to buy some puts on the homebuilders with new and existing home sales on the docket for Wed and Thur.
AMZN looks like a great buy.
I'd probably go long COST and possibly CVS right now too.
thanks for the read!
Street: Coming Week: Breaking Down
By Liz Rappaport
Markets Columnist
11/24/2007 9:40 AM EST
The crisis in the credit markets is derailing the usual year-end optimism for stocks.
The day after Thanksgiving brings shopping, and with Christmas, even more shopping. The holiday spirit typically makes for positive months in the markets, even in challenging times. But this holiday season may be different.
Investors in both bond and stock markets are giving up on trying to find bottoms even in the most beleaguered sectors like financials, opting instead for protective measures like shifting to cash.
"Like it or not, we are in a bear market," says Richard Suttmeier, chief market strategist at RightSide.com and a contributor to TheStreet.com's sister site RealMoney.com. Suttmeier points in particular to Wednesday's close for the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 12,799.04, below its August low of 12,845.78, and 9.6% off from its October high. While the Dow rebounded to 12,980.88 in a half-day of light trading Friday, breaking through that low point creates a "sell signal" for many traders who follow what technicians call Dow Theory.
"You have to keep your powder dry," says Louise Yamada, founder of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, meaning investors may be wise to move their investments to cash. "Preservation of capital here is of the essence."
That may be the current path of individual investors who are growing increasingly bearish. The American Association of Individual Investors survey of investor sentiment shows that 50% of investors are bearish, which is the third highest level this year.
Investors are certainly selling their U.S. equity mutual funds. Mutual fund investors in U.S. equity funds posted an outflow of $4.9 billion in the week ended Nov. 14, according to TrimTabs Investment Research. That marks the highest outflow since the week that ended Thursday, Aug. 16 -- the last time the credit markets imploded. TrimTabs, whose fund is short the market after being bullish through most of 2007, adds that the $21.4 billion year-to-date outflow from U.S. mutual funds is nearing the record annual outflow of $25.4 billion in 2002.
Specifically next week, "the key risk will be the potential for a liquidity squeeze," writes T.J. Marta, fixed income strategist at RBC Capital Markets. He says this liquidity squeeze theme is likely to be in place for the rest of the year as investors flee risky assets before they write investor letters, and financial firms attempt to clear off their balance sheets before the year-end reporting season.
Fiscal year-end markers hit on Nov. 30 for four large U.S. banks. How much these banks, which include Bear Stearns (BSC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Goldman Sachs (GS - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Lehman Brothers (LEH - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and Morgan Stanley (MS - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), liquidate in order to wipe their slates clean for 2008 will likely foreshadow a December unwind for the rest of the financial sector.
Measured by the Amex Securities Broker Dealer Index, the sector has fallen 27% from its June 1 high.
"The financials are in bear markets," says Yamada. "They had their bull market and we're not going to see it better there for some time."
Marta notes that next week's economic data pose some telling signals for markets on whether recession looms, and the Federal Reserve's thinking. The Fed's beige book, or intermeeting report on economic activity, comes out Wednesday, while Fed officials pepper the week with speeches, including one Thursday from Chairman Ben Bernanke.
Tuesday brings November's consumer confidence report, followed Wednesday by a read on business spending with durable goods orders for October. Most economists are expecting declines in both.
Lastly -- as if Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's new view that the housing recession and upcoming loan rate resets need a united response from the mortgage servicing industry isn't enough to spook investors -- economists are predicting that both existing- and new-home sales, which are reported Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, will decline again.
I'm seriously looking at the XLF.
The chart looks as if a lot of people are stuck calling a bottom, or the shorts have been closing out trades. Just look at the A/D line! Accumulation has been trending higher since the bounce off the subprime selloff in August, but stock price has gone WAY DOWN!?
Very odd I must say as the A/D line usually follows the candlestick chart. Looks like a setup for a big movement to the downside on continued negative news from the financials.
Too many people here in XLF stuck trying to call a bottom?
Happy Thanksgiving LOTTO!!!
Lovin my NDAQ! Leading the pack along with RIMM GOOG and AAPL. And still no mention of the OMX acquisition from the talking heads. Some are telling me that is a market inefficiency that smart traders look to exploit. NDAQ will close above the 20 day EMA today. Not many stocks are actually doing that right now ;)
Well if they actually pulled off a sale it would probably be good for GM because ResCap has been a sub prime ball and chain for their corporation. Did you read the part where GM had to sink $1bill of equity into ResCap?
But like I said, the movement today is more of a knee jerk reaction from shorters looking to cover on this "news" after a two week feast. A sale probably has as much likelihood of happening anytime soon as AT&T buying Dish Network this week.
push some of that rain down here!
lol ballyhoo you're a quick one!