They can only pump up to get out

Greater fool theory & Mark Douglas

443.01, lordy, lordy they are good. Throw that out for the minions to focus on the rest of the day. It'll sell calls while they digest the week, whipsaw the finish & do a 5-point park job here to 442.96.

They created a real strong Inside & Up move on 4H last two days & the Daily is setting up nicely. Next week Daily set for a real nice IAU towards 446 & ATH. With a little BA majic today, the second half of the day could run into the close.

The dreaded H pattern

Hope has sprung a leak. The 4H is going inside & giving pause to longs. That was high enough to suck in call buyers & premium from puts but not convincing enough for me. Limited upside here. I'm inclined to wait for this candle to close for my next move. 439.56 reclaimed bulls can push it to 441.77 beyond that 443.98

Just with CVS MA AXP GS BA DIS BRKB all pointing south, only V looking partially up. 7:1 is not a good ratio.

3 long years. I recognize a few here. Where's Net?

Started trading bigger timeframes, S&D as well as fibonacci. This Daily SPY chart caught my eye, looking like a waterfall setup. The Weekly chart is setting up an Inside & Down move. Be safe out there. Stay nimble. It's about to get ugly.

For those that don't read charts, the cliff notez version -

Line in the Sand: SPY 439.56. I hope this becomes support, however, it looks like potential rejection which yields the following targets down:

t1 434.32
t2 431.88 (expected test support of this move)
t3 429.55 (if this breaks)
t4 424.21 (a good healthy pullback for support to then break ATH)
t5 421.97 (100% retrace of move measured)

Fib levels to watch:
438.55 (38.2%) A logical Bull Run bounce spot
435.96 (50%) A good target
433.36 (61.8%) A trend change target

How to play:
8/27 430p @ 2.58 or for more time 9/17 400p @ 2.20. These could explode in value here. Watching for signal.

Whatever timeframe you're playing, a touch of the above targets should trigger a trim or sell (if you only buy one). I use 4H candles & their formations to trade actively.

If you choose to accept this mission, know your levels, the exits & put those costly, useless emotions to the side. They're too expensive.

That's a summation of this economy


and why the thin ice is getting brittle, about to break. The metrics used to measure economic health are antiquated and don't capture the shift of burden.

Thus, inflation can begin with a simple squeeze of the avg American household budget. Add one or two medical issues and boom, the boat starts to tipover.

Globalists & those that hate America

take it out on Trump. He's the scapegoat, the lightening rod, the effigy. In reality, he is the mirror. He's the reflection of the times not cause of them.

These 'screams' are the Fascists; they censor 'divergent' thought in public and on campuses, they promote violence to further ends, they are class based - separate and unequal - the laws and rules pertain to all the lemmings, not them. (see Hillary, et al)

Soros has been saying Obama was a disgrace. (b/c he didn't get the job done.) You see he almost neutered the US on the global stage. Liberals (and the Left in particular who use the libs) eat their young and lash out in all directions. They don't care who is in the cross hairs as long as it is not them and their cause. Smear campaigns, character assassinations and infantile crys are their playbook.

Martin Luther King's words are lost today. His own children don't even know them/live by them: "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character." Character, what's that?

Keep it up. No poll will catch it, none will see it coming, but you'll elect Trump better than any campaign manager, slogan or candidate.

Fools......what have you planned after Trump 2020 election? It's been almost two years......and six more to go. Pace yourself.

Tune out Noise

Don't you wonder how they time those 'stories' and info leaks to come just at the 'right time'?

It's like the Outer Limits intro: "Do not touch your (computer) we control the action, we monitor your behavior, we buy your short sightedness, we profit from your panic"

At least technicals are just, well, technical. There is no ambiguity or very little with them. They are what they are. You can interpet them but they're numeric in nature and derived from price. Fundamentals on the other hand: news, rumor, innuendo all subjects of conjecture, play into fears and spread like wild fire whether false or not. Interestingly enough, they support many points of view. Each statement bendable to the alterior motives/points of view of the author. Opinionated and biased. Rubbish.

Noise is a distraction while their picking your pockets. Don't buy the lie.

Trump will tweet, something will happen globally, the press will lie or half-truth stories. Focus on logic and computations not conjecture and gossip. Your account will thank you.

Here Here. Gap down open followed by 35 points North.

I too will dump my pootski's and add to my calls at open. Playing SPX 2810/2820. With this move, if sustained, can prolly grab 2790/2795s. Then peel away profits as she rises.

Very healthy move here. Thot it would have happened today. Not sure it holds thru European market tho. I believe this is more shake and getting the boyz back in the game.

Take out stops, buy back calls and take her up. Sheisters running the new grifter shell game like clockwork.

Big drop!??!!? I guess 3.00+ is a 'drop' if you're short.

Don't ignore SPX technicals here. The price action today had a lot of 1.00+ drops only to be filled back quickly. This would be a precursor to higher moves (which it did) But SPX was held back. Not so sure tomorrow. They may let it fly.

This beast is in a tight upward 7 day channel which it has successfully bounced off the low. Upward levels 2806-2810. SPX just passed a major resistance level on daily charts going back one month - the entire candle closing above. The intersection of the upper channel and another support level going back 2 months is 2807.38. SPX clears this and 2817/2827 is in focus.

There is no stopping an idea whose time has come.

What is, makes me money; what I want does not.

fwiw: eerie convergence of indicators HMA17/63 + EMA40/67

At 12:10, HMA6 crossed under EMA13 a key momentum change indicator (for me). 12:16 HMA6 under Wilder18 is confirmation. Now it is just a matter of time.

not unlike what I have seen before the walls come down. or is it the shift change. Locked and loaded puts.

Hovering like a fly waiting for the windshield on the freeway.

Pardon the indigestion. Coming in Ralph.

S&P500 Sigma Events

Read an interesting article by a Director for the CFA Institute regarding sigma events, probability distribution, proverbial fat tails, etc. He studied events occurring Jan 1950-July 2012.

I correlated sigma values to S&P events in the last 5 years and created a pivot table. Good stuff.

The last Monday in April to have a sigma3 event (-2%+ close) was 4/15/2013 (-2.3%). Most April closes were under 1% events and positive with only 5 events -.005 or less.

What's really interesting is these sigma 2 & 3 events do not happen by themselves and are clustered in most cases, usually in a row and definately 4+ days duration. Friday was a sigma2 (-1.3%). In the last 7 days we have had (4) sigma3 (most of a series in 5 years) and (2) sigma2 events. We are at the tail end (most likely) of a cluster series with 2 maybe 3 more sigma2+ events to come in the next 5 days. (8) is the average cluster length.

These cluster events tend to have 8-9 events together with 2 clusters having 12 events in 15 day periods. February had 8 events in 10 days with a sigma5 on day two of the series.

Now sigma can be positive as well as negative. April Tuesdays have had mostly positive sigma1 events - only 5 were negative - (1) 4/5/2016 -1% all others under .3%. (2) sigma2 events in the last 5 years.

fwiw: a high likelihood tomorrow of a sigma2 close (not much of a stretch there) a Mack truck range of 252.05 - 262.67. Hell, we dropped 3% and retraced back 1% Monday.

eyeing: 4/4 252 Put 0.64 vol 8.4k 4x OI - 262 Call 0.40 13.2k 3x OI

Something not right....I have negative indicators still

5 am either looking at the wrong timeframes or we haven't 'cleared' for green skies. waiting with what I got: handful of puts 260, 258 255 and lone call 267. Obviously I think gravity wins which in this dimension it does.

Yuckberg effect = Bull Trap Coming

Look out. Prudence plays both sides but as Fred G says "Ugly is forever". Well at least this week. Buy the ticket, take the ride.

Recognize History In the Now - Repeating Itself

This is the Social Media Bubble - NOW (vs the Internet Bubble in 2002). FB will lead us down and take a whole lot of companies with it. After Zuck's choaking, there is no confidence in his ability to lead that company. That was a very unsatisfactory, poorly worded reply to security breaches (see below) and and even lamer mea culpa in the newspapers.

If the board doesn't remove him, Wall Street will punish FB (ala David Yang syndrome?). Zuck's own people don't believe in the company as evidenced by their lack of insider stock purchases the last year. They saw the bubble back from a year ago. Strange behavior for a burgeioning company, don't you think?

Congrats Zuck, you defined Social Media; now step aside into the heap of hasbeens before you that defined an industry and faded to oblivion. I always said it is better to climb a staircase than a flagpole. Gravity wins again.

Unfortunately, there is not much the US or Fed can do about this situation.

This from a CNNMoney article in 2002: "The fear breeds selling, the selling breeds more fear. Some economists have even begun to talk about how the Fed could step in and cut rates to try and stanch the bleeding....." This option is not available. The Fed is raising rates. Why? So they can cut them in the future....2+ years from now.

In fact, add to this the rising Libor rates vs. T-Bills and essentially, the US got two (2) rate hikes this quarter. Rather quick considering Treasure yields are almost 1% higher. A tight money policy, stagflation ahead. The market doesn't like to be choaked like this.

For those thinking we are oversold based on RSI, think again. Look at NYMO. No where near oversold like February. -80 or -100 is oversold. It's hovering at -66.22. MACD has plenty of room there too.

Here's my last: there really wasn't any on Fear Friday. That is what is needed to bottom and bounce. It looks to me like we blow through 252 into the 244 range - and that is the gut check region where panic could ignite.

The direction is down at weeks end; it is a question of do we gap down tomorrow to start this. People will be deleting their FB pages, Zuck can't stop the hemorraging. FB is a historical footnote. It's a question of who else cracks under pressure here. A quality company will rip us down faster.

Fun stat: Since 1990, when SPX has lost 1.5% on a Friday, the following Monday saw a lower low 90/93 times or 96.7%.

I am a numbers guy. Anything can be boiled down to numeric equivalent. 96.7% is close to a guarantee in the markets. I trust in my fellow irrational 'man'. Emotions will be high tomorrow. Quarterly, a short week, Zuck, all we need is a well timed tweet from Trump or China flexing its trade rules.....

Puts with two fists in FB and SPY tomorrow.

My two hundred cents from various sources, but it sure makes a good story.

Is it over? Not yet

Boy, you guys have me all fired up for those Putski's. Never liked the 'Darkside' til now. Good info here with superherb technical guidance. But you have to ultimately go with your gut and what feels right.

A whole lotta waiting for one fantastick hour - of course at the very end of the week. I stopped running the spreadsheet calculating the money I left on the table. (Yes Net, hardest lesson of all - how long can you hold on to maximize returns?) Just glad the account is increasing. Sitting on free puts for next week.

Those indicators I talked about are all 'prognosis negative' for Monday and worse than earlier this week. I don't see anyone catching this knife and hysteria setting in....from some of the pros.

Dave/H.A.L. "Something wonderful is going to happen."

Interesting stat: (Credit @Oddsstats) Of the 30 Mondays with Thursday/Fridays having back to back 2%+ losses on SPX, 5 of them had an Average Return of -6.2%. Remove Black Monday and its still 2.1% average (18% chance). The worst Monday was -20.5% - Black Monday.

252.92 is a spit in the ocean Monday. 243.20 anyone? Or how about roll back the clock to Election day, 208.55. There's your 20%+ haircut.

Don't know how far this sinks but I think there is panic in the disco.

Into each life some ugly must fall - Fred G Sanford

I don't know much, but I know that I don't know it all. 'Not' got me on a simplification mission on my charts and they are much better - thank you.

Seeing some really bad signs here with many indicators looking grim on multiple time frames. Haven't seen this since Jan 30. Pattern setup of March 15/16 the same and with FOMC, tariff talk, et al.

RVI5 has the same readings: 50+ peak then a drop which does not resolve itself above 49 until Feb 14. March 12 we had a 55 reading. The highest RVI reading since has been 16.....and we're trending downward. Pair this with RSI2/5 (same pattern as Jan 29), HMA, EMA action....

I'm thinking a hedge put. Strong: SPY 3/29 P271 - Lotto: P260 or P250. Better sleep on it for pre-market move.

nothing like playing w/the boy who has the ball

they take it with them every time and make up the rules to their favor. it's like playing in the dark, they leave and don't tell you.

I got negative indicators: hma, ema, w% and they're going to park it at 274.50. sheisters. 275wp b/a hasn't budged in 4 hours...until now. 30 min race starting soon.

I thot waz friday martini lunch with wify

interns, less experienced at helm get bumped back to paper pushing then indigestion or heartburn sets in, they're either looking forward to weekend or not, or the fight about their mistress (imagined or real) play into the mind of market makers.

They either take it out on the stocks, trade with reckless abandon or say I'm cutting out early.

Hovering like a fly

waiting for the windshield on the freeway......

Not sure what is proping this up. Must be that 9EMA. Oh no wat, is that a breech........

All down, %W crossed -20 south

MO on 100. XOP lead indicator - locked, loaded, make it rain!

XOP, GS & CVS tipping on 15 min

just need BA &/or V and they'll bring down W% & thus SPY. Tempted by 175wp @ .73

Who's leading who: SPY or QQQ

I'm having intermittent issues with Fidelity but there appears to be a divergence on my 60min charts. SPY 3 hours into a southern projection; QQQ still climbing an escalator north.

One gap up filled on SPY; 3 gap ups not filled on QQQ. Gravity takes over eventually and QQQ is awfully far from EMA22.

Who wins the tug-o-war today for direction?

9 days in February vs. 9 days in March.

Simplified 30min chart, seems like price wider swings but still a 'tight' channel, the most recent trading day's previous close splits the BB channel with WilderMA16 a resting point. The gap-up in February signaled a 2 day island reversal followed by a day channel, gap-up then Boom.

Do these look similar or is it just me?

I tink the QQQ stalled out.

A lid was put in around 169.98

except for the last minute candlestick, we were at WilderMA18, and with the gap-up today, we are forming an errie pattern similiar to late January going sideways.

The 'big bang'started with a two day island reversal then the flush. There also looks like an ascending triangle on the daily to me...a continuation pattern? But then there's a hammer, a 'pict' actually, on my 30 min last 'stick. "Bang bang Maxwell's silver hammer comes down upon his head".

What's the rule for conflicting patterns? I think a hammer smashes pattern behavior.

As this is the 3rd or 4th attempt at this level in 8 days (upper BB range and all) and no way is 3x the volume going to keep coming in 30 min traunches, I'm inclined to feel that volume burst was preliminary reaction to Trump. But protectionism helps the few at the expense many.

As with all meals, it is good to let them digest before doing other activities first.

@EMA60, price looks exhausted, downward pressure building, a pullback to 166-168 would be healthy here. Short attention span theatre has to have it now so - GAP DOWN and run tomorrow.

If we were going for ATH, we wouldn't have channeled like this today.

Lucy I'm feelin' sumpin strange

new simplified charts that nowwhat challenged me on are showing a harmonic divergence. We could be at the top of the roller coaster 15 minutes ago. Buckle up. Loaded puts.

Test on QQQ at 169.12.

Sorry real post - Conflict hourly & daily SPY charts

These two lead me to believe that we are going to see a bull trap tomorrow, possibly gapping up and then 1-2 hours later the rug getting pulled but it could be 1-2 days. HMAs are crossing trend lines (daily) and running up on others (hourly).

HMA5 is bringing HMA10 under HMA60 and EMA22 within 0.83 of EMA60. Last time that happened: 2/2 the start of a 5 day slide of 8.00+ on SPY.

I'm watching these closely. I couldn't create a new 9 day candle chart like Net as Fidelity limits minute reporting periods to 360. Thanks to Nowwhat2 for chart posting tips.

Daily could breach the lower BB which would follow what others here posted, a Tuesday/Wednesday drop.



The hourly looks to break north but coming up on EMA22, EMA60 and resistance at 270.62. Clear this then 275.76 possible Monday or Tuesday. Otherwise, the walls come down.

Sure. I've tried to post charts, but I use Fidelity which saves as a jpg. iHub seems to want an online source. Can you or anyone point me in a direction? I need Hull and Wilder Moving Averages.

BTW: anyone here have experience with Fib Arcs and when/how to use them instead of retracement? Would like to tinker over weekend.

I must warn viewers, the charts I created look like Salvador Dali threw-up or an OJ Simpson crime scene.

thankyou tankyu thnk u

Net your advise stuck with me all day: can I hold out to reap the reward of my plan? Working the plan even though it's not what I thought it would be. It's like playing cards and then told 'ok pass your hand to the left and now play your cards.' I lasted until the 20 minute mark (3:40) and then sold my calls. Premium not maximized but I'll assess the lesson this weekend.

You guys are making me comfortable being pissed off taking profits with 'nominal gains' (100-400%), leaving money on the table and watching ticks go by.

Following price and what I saw, not what I wanted. The directions I got today by sticking my nose into my charts and having them tell me what to do was huge. Selling into the gap down was a growth step as well.

Farooq: I think WilderMA27 works better for me than EMA22, but it still has a place on my charts (splitting hairs in sensitivity). My BB28 with a SDev1 helped me pull and not pull triggers within a tight channel today along with HMA2 for trigger points. EMA60 is either touched on or passed through on my charts 5min-Daily (trend pattern confirmation).

I executed my plan, rang the cash register multiple times and established a strangle for next week on 'house money'.

I think Monday continues upward by looks of it unless Trump tweets, the Russian-Syrian conflict gets front page or something else derails our projection upward hence the strangle position in which case I'll look to repeat today's plan.....

Thanks to everyone here for the information, lessons and experience.

One more wafer thin mint sir?

Clear skies ahead...

Net, Far, Risk, Tech et al

I had a conundrum going into the close and decided, as 'live analytics' aren't always clear, to initiate a straddle position on 268 - 165 on QQQ. They both look to go either way with mixed signals on some indicators, and I wanted to be in position for tomorrow's opening fireworks show.

I mix simple, exponential, Wilder and favor the Hull Moving Average in my charts.....and there's a convergence where we sit today. Below 10 min charts, it looks bullish. Above 15 min charts have resistance with the exception of my 30 min which looks to break north except Williams% and MO are weak.

Ok here are my numbers:

If this breaks Farooq's EMA22 at 270.82, there's a chance for 272.76 (WilderMA) then 275.26 (upper BB with a 28 setting - although probably not for two days).

On 10 min, HMA5 and EMA9 are about to cross (Fireworks!!! they're within 0.12 of each other) and confirm trend direction at crossing. 270.64 resistance on EMA60.

264.81 is 23.6% fib on 2yr. Can you smell it? I can. Wouldn't that be something? - gap down and run to 23.6% level only to reverse to 270+. If it doesn't reverse, 261.52 fast with nothing stopping it.....

I'd like a gap either way, dump the call or put then load up on the remaining C/P for a strong close the other direction. My charts say we close up so gap down open??? followed by a steady rise to close.

Thank you for the education, wisdom and sharing. Most of all creating and maintaining this board (except for the phonetic spellings lol). Enjoying the Wild Mouse ride that is the markets.

269wp getting hit at .04.......lotto?

fwiw: I got a Death Cross @ 1:33 on a 1 min. 200sma 274.24

Shaggy?

What did the Beatles say? Tomorrow Never Knows......

My 30 min chart has 200sma @ 273.11, last week's Fib 0% 272.90 and last moves Fib 61.8% is 273.61. The 8% move in one week from 252.94-273.03 is too fast. I am expecting regressive move 264.84-265.28 tomorrow.

A gap up, we fade; a gap down could be a landslide. 5 up days in a row hasn't been seen since October?

It may bounce to 265 zone or plunge 262.99 or lower at 50% retrace.

Getting a large coffee for the show tomorrow.

Did $SPY clear 281.66 Gap on 5 min, I got 281.88 @ 11:30

2 .22 miss as I read it.

if the best way to clear out a gap is the candle low.....if it is high, the whole candle, then it cleared at 282.17. which would be my base for a run and test of 282.27.

Cheers.

$GS turning fill gap 156.47 157.50wc lotto .04x.10

this will be a green day

AMZN gap below did not fill

sold half at gap down so house money saying she is $2 shy of a complete gap #1 fill. All fine on daily to drop. May have peaked intraday at 702.53. 699.78 is resistance line.

AMZN: H&S, Island Reversal, Gap Down? All or none.

H&S on 2 hour chart? Island Reversal setups on 1,2,4hr & daily.

693.50 is beginning of the first gap and the low today was 693.91, 5 min didn't say sell.

685wp 3x+ today.

There's two scary gaps on $AMZN

693.66-686.52 & 654.01-627.01

If she loses 700, I expect a test of 693 area.

Anyone have a good formula to value weekly options for a spreadsheet I'm working on? Maybe a shortcut to my spread.

Good research...I would add $CVS. Like $V

Any thoughts on $AMZN 670wp?

could be interesting, just dipped a big toe in.