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not tendering or selling either, not before Q3 earnings numbers anyways. Still trying to wrap my brain around what just happened here.
CFO is catastrophic.... never liked that guy and him jumping to RVNC after AKAO disaster was a huge red flag, which I was, unfortunately, willing to turn a blind eye to.
Wow this is pretty f-ing unbelievable.... Lost $90K on this one.
It has been just short of 2 weeks since my wife's daxxi treatment. She thinks it is in full effect now, so it took about two weeks which is better than botox by about 1 week (again this is all relative to her, in her experience). Now for the results: she is absolutely satisfied with the results. She thinks it is clearly a better product than botox (in her own words) and that it does something to skin. I don't know if that is what they call "glow", but It looks smooth and texture looks different, in a positive way. For her, there is no going back to botox.
Now for the RHA, she feels it is a bit on a soft side, and because she sleeps on her stomach, she feels she may be getting some wrinkles next to where it was injected, that are only visible after she wakes up. Not sure if this is normal or not, it is just her observation. Overall she is satisfied with RHA but not as impressed as she is with Daxxi.
I'll update you on the duration when time comes. For her, botox worked only for a couple of months.
90k total across several accounts. Deeply underwater (more than 50 percent) but this is nothing unusual for me, been in biotechs since 2013.
I just saw $3.00 print ... RVNC is becoming an attractive take over target, hostile or otherwise.
The drop today must be RHA related. 30% drop on +7% QoQ units while Botox did -14% for same period makes no sense.
That +7% QoQ is stellar! RHA sucked but that could be transitory as mentioned on the call. The number that matters the most to me is that +7% QoQ, no other competitor reported QoQ growth, which means that Revance is taking market share across the board.
Was not able to find what the price breakdown of Daxxi/RHA was, but I found out that 3 syringes were used for Daxxi at Dilution: U/0.1cc
and that 1 inch 25G cannula of RHA4 filler was used
I'll leave the rest for you to figure out :)
I have no idea. All I can say is that total Daxxi + RHA was $980. The dermatologist is Cynthia Golomb MD, from Hallandale FL.
My wife was primarily looking for injection expertise with Daxxi. The price was not of concern.
couple other tidbits i was able to gather:
- according to this dermatologist, her patients are generally willing to switch and try Daxxify
- this dermatologist's assistant is using Daxxify exclusively and is very happy about it
Still too early to know if my wife will like it. She did Botox couple of times before, so there is some basis for comparison.
Wife did Daxxi yesterday (and bit of RHA fillers). The dermatologist said she should expect 9 moths duration for 11 lines. I thought that was perhaps a bit too optimistic, but lets see. In regards to slowdown that Botox reported, I think a large part of it is just a genuine market loss to competitors. I expect that Revance will also have favorable QoQ differential.
Them not answering questions (even though the questions were not related to the 3 items that were being voted on) is a total dick move. Ultimately it shows a disrespect for minority shareholders.
Daxxi practice locator tool for Miami area is now showing 52 locations compared to 26 just yesterday. Whatever they did to gain traction in Miami seems to be working.
can we close green today? :)
Ian you seem like a smart guy, but you are too pessimistic about RVNC's prospects. With the pricing adjustment they have a fair shot at making a lot of money. I will reply to this post in about a year and admit that I was wrong, or that you were just unreasonably pessimistic.
if q1 numbers don't fit into that $280 million EOY revenue picture, it will get much uglier. We will know soon enough.
all of a sudden now that $6.25 raise looks phenomenal
I thought you didn't like what Foley was doing to RVNC, like just two posts ago. Anything that happened in the meantime that made you change your mind?
"While these changes have had an impact on our stock price, the early results we are seeing with respect to sales volume growth and positive feedback from customers continue to give us confidence in our strategy and long-term blockbuster potential in the U.S. facial injectables market."
So they are acknowledging the screw up and and are aware of the impact it had on stock share price. This is a good sign. References to blockbuster potential are still there.
They can make this a success. In the meantime don't look at the ticker tape so often, that will make you feel somewhat better.
Some of that software is pretty bad and for some reason still in use.
Nowadays AI (for example open source package called "whisper" available on github) does is so well. I've been using it for a while now and it rarely makes a mistake in a much tougher setting than what conference call is (e.g. in videos with background music, lots of noise etc, multiple people talking simultaneously, etc.)
I will post the next RVNC conference transcript transcribed by whisper, so you can get a sense of improvement over "standard" technology. Unless it becomes the standard by then and everyone starts using it.
the source: "trust me bro" ;)
I've been updating practice locator counts daily for almost past couple of weeks now. There is a nice trend forming. Here it is again, for what it is worth:
daxxi practice locator counts
wow, good luck with that strategy
nice call @alertmeipp
30K is not a convincing number.
$7 more likely
i guess that explains that 20+ percent pop from a couple of days ago.... i'm afraid we're going to give some of it back today
That's EV/sales ratio of 2.67 if RVNC '24 revenue guidance is taken. Pretty darn cheap indeed.
Some other EV/sales ratios I got from finbox:
Pfizer Inc NYSE:PFE 3.4x
Healthcare SECTOR:HLTH.US 3.4x
Johnson & Johnson NYSE:JNJ 4.6x
Novartis AG ADR NYSE:NVS 4.7x
AstraZeneca PLC OTCPK:AZNC.F 4.8x
Abbott Laboratories NYSE:ABT 5.4x
Merck & Company Inc NYSE:MRK 5.8x
Amgen Inc NASDAQGS:AMGN 7.1x
I can't really name any, so you may be right. But as noted on the call, it is 1000 injectors that covers 70% of CD market, so it is pretty concentrated market and there are 40 people across sales ... so about 25 injectors per sales person, to get to 70%. And once it gets going, there is potential for switchover to be very rapid as both patients and payers benefit.
If it is truly just 40% of what Botox brings per CD patient then adoption will be much faster than 50% by EOY '25.
i guess I'll have to read it... the share price just dived in the premarket
How long is it going to take to start seeing royalties from sales in China? I understand Daxxi is not yet approved there. Say it gets approved in 6 months (that would be about 1.5 years since submission, which is about median time for NMPA to approve). Any thoughts? Also what's your best guess on how much the approval milestone payment is going to be? Thanks.
As to why no one of them bothered to update their own website, i guess that will remain a mystery
Just a quick update on this. Out of 11 practices i called, from 9 i got a confirmation that they do offer Daxify. The other 2, there was no one to talk to so i left a voice mail. So far my impression is that the locator tool is very accurate.
took a random sample of 55 providers from the list generated by the tool (btw it includes hawaii and puerto rico too).
I went to each provider's website, 29 out 55 do not have any reference to Daxxify on their website. I will start calling those 29 starting tomorrow to inquire if they offer daxxify treatments as I have the phone numbers ready (and I have been summoned for a jury service anyways so nothing better to do anyways). Hopefully no false positives, in case there are, I'll ask on the spot if they offered daxxi at any point in the past.
I made a spreadsheet because ... why not! Currently only two data points one from 5 days ago and one from today.
Daxxi Practice Locator Counts Over Time
The number is now up to 1635 including Hawaii. I wonder if results from this tool can be used as a reasonable approximation for speed of adoption.