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Someone Knows Something
I've been trying to find out all day why Yamana's being hit with gold up $16 and have been unsuccessful. Someone knows something and it pisses me off!!! Could be hedge funds liquidating their positions and/or shorting AUY heavily because they believe Gold is going to head lower soon. Whatever the reason, I am seriously concerned and trying not to panic like the rest of the herd. If anyone has a clue as to the reason for the selloff I'd love to hear it.
Thanks
Well AUY, we're all waiting!!!! LOL
I agree 100%
Nothing wrong with the numbers IMO
Yamana's performance this morning is extremely strange though.
I don't know why it's down when Gold is up $15 to be honest. There is some higher than average selling going on at the moment. Either someone knows something I don't, or Cramer's favoring FCX over AUY last night on Mad Money has people swapping for Freeport. I'm going to wait to see how Yamana closes today before getting too worried.
Long: AUY
Indeed Rig Has Underperformed Recently
However, it has been a phenominal investment over the last two years. Lately dayrates are beginning to plateau, while operating & maintenance costs are on the rise quicker than investors would like. However, I think that the offshore drillers are still a great place to be. Once the U.S lifts the ban on offshore drilling, and they will, there will be even stonger demand for rigs (deepwater & jackups)and dayrates will have to go higher.
*Pricing Power!!! That's exactly what you want out of a company in a high inflation market environment such as this brutal market we're in currently.
*I'm looking to buy some Transocean (RIG)once the market capitulates and people start puking up stocks.
Best of Luck Longs
Might see a quick pullback here
That was a huge move in two days, however if I wanted to start a new position in AUY or any other gold stock I would wait for a pullback. The volume on Thursday & Friday on the buy side was just awesome!! The institutionals were rushing to build positions again so they don't look stupid at the end of the Q for owning financials and/or retailers.
I wanted to buy some Agnico Eagle(AEM)once gold experienced a strong surge over $900 and the dollar began declining again, but AEM just took flight before I could snag some lol. I hate chasing stocks and I expect the institionals to wait for a pullback to buy as well. One thing I really find bullish though was the volume traded on Thursday & Friday. There were so many whales trying to build positions at once. Booyah!!!!!
*Brace for an inflation nation!!!!!!!!!!
*Best of Luck Longs
Positions: Long AUY, AEM, FCX, CAT, NSC, RIG
Consolidation might be complete in Gold
That was some impressive performance yesterday by both Gold & Gold stocks. The fact that gold made it above $920 is extremely bullish in my opinion and might possibly mean the consolidation pattern it has been experiencing since March may be nearing an end. If the U.S. Dollar continues to slide Gold might be poised to make a move towards $950-$1000 again. I think the dollar will continue tank as the Fed remains in a very tight spot and cannot raise interest rates or shut down the printing presses and begin reporting the M3 again. For the time being, the U.S. will continue to experience extremely slow growth and there aren't that many places to make money. This will make gold even more attractive to investors in the coming months in my opinion.
10-20% gold weighting does not seem like a bad idea currently as the fear is creeping up again on Wall Street and panic sets in. I think there could be more bank failures in the near future and gold provided a great insurance policy in March when Bear Sterns was rescued. I see no reason it cannot provide the same insurance again.
Best of Luck Longs
Position: Long AUY, AEM, FCX, NSC, CAT, RIG,
I think Copper gos to $3.25 before breaking $4 again
That's means FCX may see a shake-out. It this happens, it would be a nice opportunity to add more in my opinion on capitulation. The Rest of The World is leaving the U.S. behind in terms of economic growth and with the dollar in decline and the bid from overseas, I think Copper will rise above $4
Position: Long FCX
The Direction of Gold & AUY
* One month ago I was thinking that Gold might pull back to $800 rather swiftly to its 200 Day Moving Average, however after witnessing the price action over the last two weeks I think $850 might be the support level for the time being. I still think that Gold wants to meet up with its 200 Day MA, but the 200 day ma is now currently around $850-$860 up from the $800 level a month ago.
* What I'm getting at is that I think the price of Gold might end up trading sideways for the next month or two and build another foundation before going higher sometime towards the middle to the end of Summer. That means AUY might be range bound between $13 & 16 for the next month or so. However, as I have said in a previous post, if Yamana can come through with more quarters like the last one, the stock could see some significant upside if the institutionals start building larger positions.
Best of Luck longs
Position: Long a small position in AUY
Higher ROE would be great.
* What we need for AUY to move up significantly is definitely higher ROE. If both net income and cash flow continue to improve by the same margin as Q1 then I think the institutionals will be all over AUY and that's what would move Yamana, certainly not the retail day traders that flip flop constantly. I'll wait to see Q2 results though before I get too excited about AUY lol. I want to see consitency.
Position: Long a small position in AUY
One More Solid Quarter Is All That's Needed
I have to admit, Yamana shocked the hec out of me with those 1st Quarter numbers: fantastic earnings growth that beat consensus estimates for a change, nice cash flow, and even free cash flow. On top of that they boosted the dividend much sooner than I expected. If Gold & Copper prices remain strong and Yamana can come in with another solid quarter similar to Q1, the whales will be all over AUY.
Short term, the stock could be range-bound for awhile and might even trade down if Gold drops to $800, however I'd be a buyer on any dip, especially if panic selling sets in and people get impatient & fearful. I remain bullish on Gold Long-Term simply because monetary policy in the U.S. is showing no signs of change and the consumer will remain under significant inflationary pressure for some time, impacting overall GDP growth. Much of the stimulus package money in my opinion, will be spent on the increase in the cost of living. Honestly, I would not be the least bit surprised if another stimulus package is put together if the present one doesn't get people spending and living beyond their means again lol. The only bubble in the markets currently in my mere opinion is the dollar.
Best of Luck Longs
Position: Long AUY
Bounce possible, however I'm waiting for capitulation.
I left Yamana after they reported that horrible earnings miss last Q. In my opinion, the company really should have warned investors that analyst estimates were way too high. I think managament needs some schooling in how Wall Street operates.
I'm beginning to think that if AUY can't hold the $12 mark and drops lower, the company could very well be purchased. Their assets are worth one hec of a lot more than AUY's current market cap. If it does fall below $12 I'll be a buyer once again, but only on speculation of a buyout. AUY needs new management.
Position: None Yet, But Soon
Best of Luck Longs
Selling is an invstors most powerful tool.
At least that's what I have learned over the years.
Sell the losers & keep the winners.
Take Care
I'm out. Good Luck Longs
I was very disapointed once again that Yamana couldn't at least come in line with earnings estimates. Estimates are there for a good reason, to give investors an idea of future growth potential. I've cut this company far too much slack in the last year. That Q4/2007 earnings report read like it was put together the night before lol.
I'm going to pray for a pullback in Gold and begin building a position in Agnico Eagle (AEM) at around $55-$60 if I'm lucky, which really is the best of breed amongst the mid-tier gold miners. They have low cash costs and operate in one of the most politically stable regions in the world. That's why the stock is able to obtain a much higher P/E multiple than the other miners. As the price of gold continues to climb, the risk of nationalization becomes greater, so I'd rather be in Canada or Australia than South America.
Best of Luck to those who remain long AUY
Aloha
Anyone hangin on?
Well, so much for the bounce I was expecting today. People are really afraid to step up and buy.
It's crazy how much we have sold off in the last week and truly humbling honestly. In hindsight, I should have taken some off the table at $19, however I really didn't think I was being greedy. My target was $24 and Yamana's valuation isn't over-extended compared to the other miners. This pullback has seriously been a bump on the head for me and one hec of a learning experience lol.
Best of Luck
Way Way Way Over-Done on the downside IMO.
Why couldn't Yamana report earnings two weeks ago? Maybe then, the stock might have gotten a little extra momentum to hit my target price of $24 lol. The panic selling is way overdone & I'm thinking that a bounce may be possible next week. I heard a few jackasses on TV today pronounce that the Gold Bull market is over and the U.S Dollar has bottomed. Riiiiiight lol, like the Fed is going to stop debasing our currency anytime soon? lol The dollar will most likely continue it's downward trend after it's oversold bounce IMO.
Gold Production actually decreased in 2007 and a lot of people have been waiting for this pullback to buy. I think the bull market remains intact in the long-term because a lot of folks (including myself) are getting sick of the Fed absolutely killing the purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar. We were just overdue for a correction.
Best of Luck
Direction of AUY/ Thoughts on today's price action?
Looks like gold is ready to take a rest. How low will the profit taking ultimately take us? You got me ???????? However, I have to say, gold has been a very handy insurance policy over the past 6 months and there really is no reason for me to believe (yet) that I don't need that insurance anymore.
So, rather than try to jump out only to jump back in again a week from now lol, I've decided to hang on to Yamana just in case this credit crunch/ run on the bank mess isn't over.
Best of Luck
You May be right about that.
Q4 Earnings should be golden
Yamana has had quite a run up over the past 6 months, so I'm definitely not complaining. However, I think we have a chance to go up a few more points from here if earnings smoke analyst estimates on the 25th. We shall see.
Thanks for the article
Best of luck
HCBK smokin the other banks.
Their traditional lending style is just awesome!!! I was a Wachovia shareholder and removed myself from that sinking ship to board the Carpathia of banks in my opinion lol. Buying incrementally and re-investing the dividends for the long term. I think Hudson City will exit this housing led recession in very good shape and benefit from a complete leveling of the playing field for mortgages.
Keep On Keepin On Hudson City.
*Position: Long HCBK
Got my Capitulation Selloff List ready
If the DOW & S&P break through support on the downside then I think there could be some intense selling that will spike the Volitilty Index ($VIX) again over 35. Once that spike occurs I will be on the move picking up shares in my favorite companies again, especially Corning. It would be great if management came out and upped the dividend this quarter right? I think their in the position to do so.
Man, this market is vicious.
Best of Luck
Today a good day to add
If anyone was waiting patiently to add some shares you got your chance today and may even have an opportunity to add some more if AUY dips further. Wow, what a move this morning on the downside!! Traders taking profits I would say. It's hard for me to flip flop in and out like that because I'm no good at catching the absolute bottoms and tops, so I've decided to just hang on and let the traders do their thing and wait for the low-mid $20 range before taking any profits.
What's the general concensus on earnings from people here?
The analysts are looking for $.18 this quarter. For once that doesn't seem like too high a number considering they made $.20 last Q. However, this quarter they will be taking a charge for fees involved in the acquisition of Meridian & Northern Orion. I'm not the saviest on accounting rules, but that should be counted as a one time charge no? and not a part of adjusted earnings. If anybody could offer some clarity on this issue
I'd appreciate it.
Rock On AUY.....Rock On
Jim loves the sound if his own voice lol
I've read four of his books and while he is a terrific writer and very savy on the ways Wall Street thinks and acts, he has made far too many bad calls in the last year from the banks to the retailers than I can respect. I think Fast Money smokes his show anyday.
Agnico Eagle is a great company, but an expensive stock IMO
I'm really surprised that Cramer recommended buying Agnico at its current valuation. While AEM's earnings estimates are too low for 2008 I still feel that Yamana offers a better risk/reward ratio based on it's valuation. I've learned a lot from Jim, but when it comes to gold and its fundamentals, I don't think it's his strongest area of expertise in my opinion. Then again, Agnico operates in one of the most politically safe countries for Gold in the world, so maybe the stock could obtain a much higher multiple.
Agnico is a fantastic company. It's just trading at too rich a multiple for my tastes. If gold were to pull back sharply, AEM could be subjected to more downside risk than AUY.
There aren't many other sectors to be long honestly
You're in two of the 5 sectors I like right now, with Gold & Silver being the best at the moment in my opinion. I agree with your taget price by the end of the year and I'm also quite excited about this quarter's earnings with the dollar falling against the Yen and with Verizon now purchasing ClearCurve.
Let's make some money in this Bear of a Market.
Best of Luck and nice talking to you
What a Day!!!!!!Up 6 percent on strong volume.
I saw some really big orders go through today on the buy side.
Finally, Yamana is being recognized for it's true value.
Earnings on the 25th of this month. The numbers should be half decent with signicantly higher Gold & Silver prices over last Q.
How short-sighted is the market right?
I think Corning is a great turn-around story. Do you think the sellers will take GLW down to $20 again? That would be a gift in my mind. The one thing I'd like to see the company do in the near future is start buying back a lot of stock. That would go over very well with investors.
Long & Stong GLW
Adding more if GLW slides again.
This market action represents pure irrationality and if Corning slides again I'll be adding to my position. With the dollar slipping against the Yen I think we might have a decent quarter coming, but I could be wrong.
Position: Long GLW
Where the hec is everyone?
I can't believe how quiet this board is. The deepwater drillers are making money hand over fist and RIG is trading at a ridiculous multiple. There's visability in the form of solid backlog here. I don't think a 15 multiple is too much to ask for a stock with a 36% five year growth rate do you?
Position: Long RIG
I wouldn't chase it.
Yamana having a good day so far, but I wouldn't chase it if I were looking for an opportunity to start a position. Wait for some weakness which will eventually come. This stock isn't likely to run to $30 that fast lol. You won't miss the boat if you are patient.
I also just wanted to add that I'm keeping some money on the side in case the action in AUY turns irrational and my risk/reward thesis is wrong. I like Yamana's potential here, but I can't ignore discipline either. If it pulls back more then I think it will I want some capital available to take advantage of any irrationality.
The GDX
Anybody check out the GDX index lately. I was looking back a couple years and the last time we got in momentum driven ralley in Gold like this it lasted from roughly May 2005 until May 2006.
My point is that during that time-frame the GDX returned 125%
Compare that ralley to the current ralley we're in which basically started in late August, and the GDX is only up roughly 55%. I understand that nothing is ever certain in investing, however I think the gold miners might have significantly more upside potential, especially given the fact that there's a lot of money sitting on the sidelines looking sectors with visability. But then again, what the hell do I know lol. I just thought I'd share that little chesnut I found.
Best of Luck
Yamana & The Overall Market
Sorry I didn't get back to you sooner Marllene. I'm not a regular on this site. As far as AUY, I think Yamana will hold up fairly well despite the overall market downtrend. As of this morning Gold is up again putting in a new high. I think it wants to go to $1000 and maybe even a little higher before consolidating a bit, however I don't expect a major pullback until late Springtime. Until this mess in the credit markets is over and until the U.S. Dollar finds support again, I remain long AUY.
If you're looking to add more, I think Friday would've been a good time, but you never know. AUY might be pressured again today by the overall market. I think the risk/reward for Yamana at this point is down $1 and up $4 which isn't too shabby. Watch the Earnings on the 25th though.
Best of Luck
Market is throwing another sale again.
* This pullback in AUY will offer a nice entry point for those who have been waiting to add some gold exposure to their portfolios.
* Lots of other great sectors alongside gold miners getting cheaper & cheaper & cheaper too.
- Rails
- Deepwater Oil/Gas Drillers
- Agriculture
- Tech
SHOP ON!!!!!!!
So Right about that!!!
Last Summer when Yamana hit $11.00 I loaded the boat. I did not think it would drop to $8.50 though lol, but that reminded me of how totally irrational the market can be at times and how I must be prepared to take advantage of that panic if I ever want to make Big $$$.
A little consolidation possibe here
If I wanted to buy more, I'd wait for a pullback in the $16-$17 range, but that's just me though.
Yamana has been impressing me lately honestly. I don't know if you were around for this stock through 2007, but it was really a bumpy ride lol. Patience is something I have to work on on a daily basis.
Not much has been working in this volitile market so it's nice to have one or two stocks doing well. Another stock that has been treating me well alongside Yamana is Transocean (RIG)
Deepwater drilling is on fire!!!
Best of luck
I think $20 is possibilty
I have followed Yamana for about a year now and made some money trading it. However, with all that's happening in the markets (credit & stock market), I'm remaining long AUY at least until May. I also like FCX with copper looking bullish again.
Best of Luck
Great Day
I'm hangin onto my AUY with both hands now that the US Dollar has broken support @ 75 on the downside. So many big currency traders were thinking the dollar would go higher not lower. I guess they were wrong again. The dollar will stop sliding one day, but only when the Monetary Policy in the U.S. changes for the better.
I think Yamana could see $20 soon, and if earnings are half decent, maybe even $24
Time will tell. All I know is that gold has been a terrific insurance policy for me thus far.
Best of Luck
Bounce Back to $17
Short-Term oriented folks jumped ship today & then AUY bounced right back on a market ralley. I love it!!!!I don't know about anyone else, but I think we are ready to challenge that old high.