Retired
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Leased some acreage to AR in 2015. Final months of 5 yr. lease term, when wells are most often drilled? Drilling drastically reduced across the nation due to COVID lockdowns & the lease expired undrilled.
That said, have nothing but good things to say about Antero. They pay very good upfront signing bonus to subsurface mineral landowners to lease to them. During entire process? Treated me AWA other local (NW West Virginia) mineral property owners, I know personally, extremely well.
Look forward to doing more deals with them in the future.
Isopatch
Been a long time since last post on this site. With Silicon Investor continuing to shrink? Long past time for me to resume posting here. A little about me, FWIW.
Retired from active stock trading in 2012 & added decades of accumulated capital to initial positions in producing & non-producing Nat. Mineral properties with proven reserves in multiple pay zones. Mostly Gilmer County, WV. Very bullish about the sector ST, IT & LT.
All the best to everyone,
Isopatch
Hi Peter,
At 7:07 PM ET, SI crashed completely in my are of the US mid-west - central Ohio.
Anybody else down north OR south of the US/Canadian border?
Iso
Peter. Here's NG comparative chart with todays AGA update.
http://www.highlandenergy.com/agachart.htm
We may pierce the 1998 curve before fall shoulder season is over.
Isopatch
Hi Roebear,
Amen to that, bro !
Without HTP where am I going to turn for a good belly laugh?!<g>
Iso
Frank.
In the 15 months I've been an SI member there have been a few times that SI was down completely. But except for one that I think lasted a day the others were less than an hour and may have just been a few local or regional servers if I remember correctly.
This year has really been excellent up till today compared to what I remember in 2000. Seem to recall a lot more relatively brief partial outages last year, like not being able to send or receive PMs or not being able to post for an hour or so.
Roebear has been on SI a lot longer than I have. And in all our conversations, I never thought to ask him about this kind of thing before I was a member. What about it Obi Wan?<g> Did this used to be more common in 97-99? TIA.
Iso
Hi Frank,
10 PM and still can't connect to SI. Maybe that new virus got em.
Only thing I did today was buy back 1/2 position in AEM. Should have done it yesterday.
Isopatch
Frank. Yup. The alarm bell<g>
American Spirit is part of a select circle<lol>
He's one of very few that Iso put on permanent ignore (a long time ago) without every having exchanged a post with him.
I kid you not, whenever the wind kicks up you always hear it whistling between his ears. He's been banned on more SI monitored threads and put on ignore by more people than just about anybody I know of. The guy is a hoot!
Isopatch
Hi Peter,
It wasn't any of the the toy clown dog raiders of our old SD thread that got you suspended from SI, was it?
Anyway, there's no doubt the golds are going to make the difference for us in 2001. Even my sons have nice positions in GLG, KGC and GG in their college accounts, along with a fat cash reserve.
Isopatch
But where's Japan's PPT, mewonderin' ?? !! This is one UGLY opening.
http://www.drudgereport.com/flash6.htm
And look at the rest of Asia! SEVEN markets down well over 4%, and THREE of those down 5% plus.
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2
Lookin like Global Meltdown ACT TWO.
Our PPT may get more than they can handle when this hits our opening at 9:30 AM ET.
Hang onto your hats folks !!
Isopatch
Frank. Anticipating doing very little tomorrow. Here's one reason.
From the UK Guardian website:
"Shadowy committee ready to pour billions into stock
markets to avert shares meltdown
Special report: Terrorism in the US
Richard Wachman and Jamie Doward
Sunday September 16, 2001
The Observer
The US Federal Reserve and Wall Street's powerful investment
banks are preparing to spend billions of dollars to support the
US stock market, which opens this week for the first time since
last Tuesday's terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.
A secretive committee - the Working Group on Financial
Markets, dubbed 'the plunge protection team' - includes bankers
as well as representatives of the New York Stock Exchange,
Nasdaq and the US Treasury. It is ready to co-ordinate
intervention by the Federal Reserve on an unprecedented scale.
The Fed, supported by the banks, will buy equities from mutual
funds and other institutional sellers if there is evidence of panic
selling in the wake of last week's carnage.
The authorities are determined to avert a worldwide slump in
share prices like the crashes of 1987 or 1929. Investment banks
and their broking subsidiaries are to block short-selling by
speculators and hedge funds by making it hard for them to
obtain prices on favourable terms.
'Everyone is eager to avoid "contagion", where prices fall rapidly
as investors react lemming-like to a falling index,' said one
banker.
In addition, US regulators are prepared to ease rules that prevent
companies from buying their own stock.
The 'plunge protection team' was established by a special
executive order issued by former President Ronald Reagan in
1989. It is known to include senior bankers at leading Wall
Street institutions such as Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs. It
has acted before, in the early Nineties and during the 1998
LTCM hedge fund crisis.
Whether coordinated action by the US authorities and banking
institutions will be sufficient to avert a large-scale sell-off on Wall
Street this week remains to be seen.
Tony Jackson, director of UK equity strategy at investment bank
ING Barings, believes there may be an emotional tide of support
for Wall Street this week, but that it will be shortlived. He said:
'Some people are talking about a "patriotic rally" that could lift
the Dow by 1,000 points on reopening. I don't think it will be that
high, but it will certainly go up, perhaps several hundred points.
'But long term, the trend will still be down, perhaps 10 per cent
from where it opens. Many companies will cut earnings
forecasts now.'
Khuram Chaudhry, equity strategist at Merrill Lynch, believes
that Wall Street could fall by as much as 10 per cent. 'You have
to remember that things did not look that good before the attack
on the World Trade Centre. There were already signs that
American consumer confidence was deteriorating. I don't think
people are now going to rush out to take foreign holidays or
crowd the shopping malls.'
John Llewellyn, economist at Lehman Brothers, is worried that
markets may prove disorderly, despite the best efforts of the
authorities.
'There is a degree of synchronisation between the three major
economies. The US and Europe are weaken ing in tandem,
while Japan is in the doldrums. In the early Nineties Japan was
in better shape. The global economy may end up in a worse
condition than 10 years ago.'
But there are optimists too. Sonja Gibbs, chief equity strategist
at Nomura International, believes 'the economic fundamentals
will take a turn for the better in 2002'.
Robin Aspinall, equity analyst at broker Teather and Greenwood
said: 'The Americans will want to show that the stars and stripes
still fly over Wall Street."
Rate of Fed monetary creation is staggering!
Major crisis or not, this is nothing less than massive debasement of the currency.
Beyond a possible patriotic pop, say goodbye LT to the buck IMO, and hold onto core positions in the gold stocks and physical precious metals you happen to have hanging around.<g> The US dollar is the sacrificial lamb of choice to fund this war effort.
From the Feds own website.
"Friday, September 14, 2001
Temporary Open Market Operations - September 14, 2001:
$81.250 billion was accepted for all collateral types"
(That's on top of 70 billion the day before and 38 billion on Wednesday, zip on Tuesday and 2 bil on Monday).
Isopatch
.
.
Hi Frank,
Thanks. When I was at Merrill Lynch in the 70s and early 80s Bob Farrell was head of the Market Analysis Dept.
He probably taught me more about contrarian thinking than any other single person. Every Tuesday morning he held a firm wide conference call that came through each office squawk box. He would review the most important things he saw unfolding in the market environment talked about specific indicators, sentiment, fund cash levels, the whole 9 yards. But the wealth of insights on how contrarian strategies can be applied in different market, sector and individual stock situations really surpassed everything else, for me.
But he also hired a stellar group of TA guys to follow up on the general themes he developed. The FA Dept analysts got all the attention from the big time veteran brokers in those days. So even as a young broker I had easy and frequent phone access to brain storm with some of the best TA thinkers and stock pickers on W.S.!!
Phil Roth later went on to run the Mkt Analysis Dept at Shearson Lehman, Lou Smith became dept head at Butcher & Singer and Robert Prechter (only talked to him briefly once) went off to write his now famous EW book with Frost.
Funny, at the time something like that is occurring in your life you don't usually realize it's full significance till much later. Looking back at it now, feel incredibly lucky to have gotten such outstanding guidance and mentoring from some of those guys.
Sure wish we could get KGC rolling. Maybe when Slider rejoins us we can get the critter jumpin' again<G>
Iso
Hi Frank. Thanks for inviting me.
Here's a post I did on another thread that might also be of interest to readers here:
"Looks like Dow test of Mar/Apr lows OR lower by end Sept.
is in the works.
Lot of things I look at are lined up like the planets in 2001 Space Odyssey when Bowman and Poole got to Jupiter!<g>
1. First warning signal to me that there would be no summer rally came as Insiders across the board evinced only tepid buying interest in their own company stocks through the Apr/May rally. And other than another minor blip up, they've sold into the strength making successively lower lows and lower highs as per the net activity chart below:
http://www.insidertrader.com/indicator.asp
Here's one of the recent comments (8/15) from Insider Trader:
"Insiders certainly called the market's Summer doldrums correctly...and still don't indicate that the long-awaited rebound is near. The ratio of companies showing insiders buying versus selling has been bearish for over a year now, and last week the trend continued: there were 56% more companies with Form 4s filed indicating sales than purchases. An illustation of these depressing numbers can be viewed on our Insider-based Market Indicator.
Numerous market prognosticators have suggested that the worst is over for the market, and that it will recover ahead of the ailing economy. But they thought that a few months ago as well, and were proven wrong when the stats and earnings warnings showed the economy was in worse shape than they most believed. Insiders weren't fooled, though, and they are still telling us that any broad-based market recovery is not likely in the near term."
2. Sentiment continues to point to far too much complacency and lack of the kind of fear that's pervasive at important Intermediate or Long Term bottoms.
Invest Intel survey out yesterday still showing more Bulls than Bears. In fact bears hardly budged from the 30%+ number in the previous weeks report! Bulls only dropped to 43.9 from 46.9% the previous week.
In the several major Bear Markets I've worked in I've never seen a major low in place until Bears are 50% or higher with Bulls sinking into the 20-30% range.
Another sentiment warning is the high asset allocation to equities currently being rec by the major W.S. Houses. At the bottom they will be preaching the bearish tune. They are a great contrary indicator.
In other words we have A LOT more downside to go. Sentiment measures don't turn on a dime. It takes plenty of both time and price to achieve the bottom numbers we need to see.
3. The US Dollar is just beginning a Bear Market from extreme values of overvaluation when will push both the stock and bond markets much much lower.
During the long preceeding Bull Market, foreigners accumulated an unprecidented level of dollar denominated assets. Believe it was Steven Roach or Paul Kasriel who pointed out that foreigners now own 40% of our Treasury paper!!
As the dollar decline continues, they will come under increasing pressure to exit those bonds and switch to another currency or asset that will at least maintain a store of value role. As they exit in greater numbers, a vicious circle will develop with a impact on US fixed AND equity markets. Remember the Fed can only control ST interest rates. Intermediate to Long Term rates will stay subbornly high even with weak domstic demand for credit because such a huge %age of our Treasury market is more dollar sensitive than in any past economic slowdown!
That's part of the deflationary risk the Fed is afraid of.
4. The recent continued weakness in the broad market indices is beginning to put institutions under a lot of pressure to sell with the end of the 3rd quarter barely 30 days away! The deeper we get into Sept, the greater this pressure will become.
IMO we are starting the biggest selloff of the year right now.
Regards,
Isopatch