Hi Peter and all,
I have been quiet on SI and this is my first post here. Recent events have me quite stirred up but also resulted in quite a flurry of activity in my personal agenda, since it essentialy vaporized a lot of my short term technical work*, on top of which the WTC event timing caught me in a very harried work week from which it was impossible to extract any time (ironic, in that a large part of that work was involved in training Emergency Responce Teams). I will mention here my heart goes out to all those who have suffered loss in the recent terror attack. While I don't often post outside of market subjects, with a daughter and son in law in the Marines, I am also obviously involved and patriotically so.
I have only had a chance to read a couple of your SI posts and your posts here. From what I have read it would appear that we agree a lot on the seriousness of the current war. In fact, I have been of similar mind for a long time, waiting and watching for signs of war along religious lines to develop in the world. (I tend not to post much on my political/social views, however)
While not agreeing with all the authors conclusions, I have been enlightened with some of the work and points contained in "The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order" by Samuel P. Huntington, since it's publication in 1996. While much of it has been rendered moot by the WTC events, in that the previously unthinkable has become obvious now, it has served me as a touchstone in my view of world events and even my affection for gold the last few years (albeit as a trader). One point, well made in the book, is Islam's history of being the most militaristic culture extant and the one most likely to respond violently to perceived threats.
My first thought on hearing of the WTC was "this changes everything". To me it is the investing equivalent of TEOTWAWKI, and quite possibly to a large degree the cultural equivalent also.
*Unfortunate for the st TA work, in that I reduced my gold exposure due to the long work stretch in which I would not be able to watch the markets this week. Fortunately I did keep my LT holdings and added some stocks back in Friday afternoon.
Still lost some very nice positions which I probably won't be able to get back, such as GLG, that I had hoped to rebuy on a st dip.
Did get the POG jump I was looking for, although it was not by a desired event that is certain, I am of the contrary opinion that TA will at times forecast the probability of large extra market turn events occurring and that is what I believe I was seeing in my still developing "sort of fractal" TA work.
Best to All,
Roebear