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We’re up 2% today! Somebody knows something! LOL!
Skipper, yes, I agree with what you are saying. I only hope it was done strategically, to create some massive momentum when they eventually reverse course and start buying.
It appears that there is still roughly 18M shares short in AMRN stock (now approaching 30 days coverage at historically low volume).
And continued short volume is roughly 1/3 of all daily volume.
To me, this indicates that if something big happens, there will be a massive short squeeze.
It's sort of shocking that this many shares are still short at the current price.
BBI, as I said, this was one tiny snippet from a very lengthy article (nearly 100 pages). There’s like 4 pages of disclaimers.
Yup, it’s unfortunate.
BBI, no, ConsumerLabs is legit.
I have subscribed to it for years. Their analysis is very neutral and balanced. In fact, they take down a lot of supplement companies.
Having said that, I don’t always think their scientific analysis is thorough enough. But I am sure they have limitations on how much they spend on research, etc.
The article/research on fish oil is pretty good. They do use scientific studies to back up their analysis. And a lot of it is very good. What I quoted was just a snippet of the larger research.
Saw this unfortunate update in ConsumerLab.com. I don't think they are interpreting the RESPECT trial correctly. They are ignoring the fact that results were positive, just not statistically significant.
https://www.consumerlab.com/reviews/fish-oil-supplements-review/omega3/#epa-plus-statins
Thanks for your top notch analysis Sleven.
Rather than snarky remarks, you could give your opinion on how an injunction against Hikma would shut down all 7 generics.
Ram, an injunction would only impact Hikma. There would be 6 more generics to fill the gap.
Ah, got it. Ok.
It would still seem that Amarin is at a disadvantage due to their size and lack of multiple medications to negotiate with.
I also wonder if it is a demand issue. Amarin ceased all sales and marketing efforts a few years ago, so there is little demand for branded Vascepa in the U.S. Generics do not market (that I am aware of), so outside of docs adopting Vascepa based on their exposure at conferences, even PBM deals don't move the needle tremendously. And at the same time, insurers have to be willing to reimburse. Even if PBM's cut deals with Amarin for branded V, if insurers don't put them in the formulary, it just sits on shelves at CVS (Walgreens, Rite-Aid, etc.).
It seems that the challenge for Amarin goes much wider and deeper than simply cutting a deal with PBM's.
This is where it would be helpful to understand what/if Sarissa has a real plan for the U.S. market. Because I don't really see one.
Yeah, originally the "idea" of PBM's was a good one - be the "expert" between the pharmacy and the drug supplier. Negotiate prices, bring prices down, etc.
It was not unlike the origins of health insurance and HMO's. But, like them, profit motive got in the way of a good thing, and they constantly find ways to chip away at the "savings" they are providing.
One point of interest, however, is that PBM's actually will sometimes mark generic drugs higher than branded drugs, and manage the cost and profits through a rebate system.
It all seems very shady.
I think one of the biggest challenges that Amarin faces with PBM's and insurers is that they are a "one-trick pony". They are small, and provide only one drug.
Ram, and actually for them, safety is probably the bigger concern (thus the trials), where Vascepa really only has one (very small) potential side-effect of afib.
LOL! Ram, that's pretty funny, but true.
What's sad is that Vascepa is almost like that - beneficial for almost everyone (most populations have Omega3 deficiencies), and has a safety profile close to water.
That's a great question. I don't really know the answer. The unfortunate part is that Vascepa (and EPA in general) is so good for most people's health with such a great risk profile, but the challenge is getting the world to accept that (and pay for it).
Our world is all about the "quick fix" in healthcare.
Unfortunately, it looks like BA/EZ combo is taking off as the drug of choice. We need some of the recent conferences to move the needle over there. We're currently annualizing at $2.7M per year in UK (£3.6M). There is a LONG way to go.
The trajectory is very similar to that in Canada, and Canada is currently annualizing at about $17M. But they are about 5 years into commercialization. Granted, the dynamics there are different because of the tedious and time-consuming provincial approval process they needed to go through. But the trajectory is fairly similar so far.
So if nothing really changes in terms of uptake, I would assume the trajectory would look something like this:
2024: $2M
2025: $5M
2026: $10M
2027: $20M
2028: $35M
2029: $40M
And it would likely level off around there. This would be similar to the current uptake in the U.S. (per capita).
Obviously, they need to do something to convince the industry to adopt Vascepa as a legitimate CVD solution, and not just a "niche" drug.
Yes, I explained that process. NLM must review first before posting. But they will post within 30 days even if the review is not complete.
Extensions can be granted beyond the deadline. This happens regularly.
The 12-month deadline is for submission by the responsible party (U of W). It's not a deadline for when it gets posted to the public on ClinicalTrials.gov. They have now met the deadline. Theoretically, it could get posted after 9/29, but I expect they will have it up before then.
Sleven, results are already submitted.
According to the NLB, they will post those results publicly within 30 days of submission, even if all items are not rectified (if there are any).
It's derived from ClinicalTrials.gov
FYI, BRAVE results were submitted to NLM yesterday. They then review the submission for quality control, and return comments to the sponsor (U of W).
In any case, the submission is posted on ClinicalTrials.gov within 30 days of that submission, even if the review is not concluded. They will post, with comments pending.
So the latest we should see results is 10/18, but likely sooner.
That's affiliated with Medicare. That's why Vascepa is still covered.
The last 4 weeks, we are averaging 626K shares traded, which is absurdly low. I can only speculate that whoever has been shorting the stock has ended their campaign, due to the stock price.
It just feels like we are in some sort of purgatory right now.
Dmc, do you mean Medicare?
The CVS deal of dropping Vascepa did not effect Medicare plans.
Thanks North, hence the "headwinds" we are facing.
Yeah, at the end of the day, it’s still about the ability of Vascepa to catch on worldwide. Something like the NOL tax benefit is just added gravy to a buyer.
Lizzy, Amarin sure is unique in the biotech space. We have been commercialized for over 10 years, yet still floundering.
So, on one hand, we are well past the startup/clinical phase of risk, but have yet to prove that we can effectively commercialize at scale. Between the loss of US patents, and the massive European headwinds, we need something to get us over the “hump”.
Thanks Tal. So the bottom line is that Amarin would need a much higher buyout number to fully take advantage of their NOL's.
Thanks Tal, can you explain the rule a bit more?
I think the 3rd quarter results will be telling. If revenue slides even further, then I think the BB is off the table.
But if we manage to stay relatively cash neutral, then my thinking is that they are planning to use the BB as a price momentum play at the right time.
Everyone has to also keep in mind that the MDCO deal happened during the halcyon days of the XBI. Multiples were exploding, as the index continued its upward trajectory.
While XBI has at least flatlined in the past year or two, multiples, and demand for acquisitions has cooled considerably since 2019 when the MDCO deal took place.
Back then, biotech resembled the tech boom of the late 90’s.
Well, my cost basis is $2.34, so I need at least $7.50ish to make that. If Sarissa can’t get $7.50, they suck.
Hard to determine exactly, but AMRN is currently trading for roughly the future value of its tax loss carryforward.
It could be less if used in Ireland (their corp tax is only 12.5%)
Glutton for punishment, but bought another 8500 shares at $0.58.
Current share count is 215,797
FYI, I received an email from one of the BRAVE coordinators in response to my email, that they are in the process of uploading data to ClinicalTrials.gov, and *hope* to have it completed by the end of the month.
Thanks Kiwi
Incidentally, does anyone know what Amarins cumulative tax loss carryforward is? I can’t find it in any financial statement notes, and it is not necessarily the same as their GAAP losses.
Tax returns are not public documents, but I feel like Sarissa may have made mention in one of their presentations during the proxy fight, but I can’t find anything.
Thanks Zip. You may be correct that any company can use them. There ARE certain limitations, but I don’t think they would impact Amarin.
RMB, I agree. There are thousands of companies that would love to have a tax loss to carry, but they don’t buy unrelated companies to take advantage of it.
IMO, nobody is going to buy Amarin solely for the tax loss. Virtually every BP out there is profitable, so the tax loss will just be gravy for any of them.
Although I am curious how companies value a tax loss carry forward in an acquisition price. I am going to do a little research on that.
I have to go back and re-read some of the information I found on Irish-based tax losses, but I thought I read somewhere that the “acquirer” has to be in substantially the same business as the target company in order to capitalize on the tax loss carry.
I didn’t pay it too much attention at the time, so I might be wrong, because my assumption was that Amarin will be acquired by BP, but I will see if I can go back and find it.
ORB, maybe if Amarin ran “several commercials every evening”, people would be more familiar with Vascepa. 😩