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As I said in ST
Wikthor Jun 27, 2023 11:08 AM
$AMRN No more blind incentives and without clear objectives.
Incomes and SP.
And I don't mind giving them thousands of shares priced at $20. With the SP at 20$.
"The minute I express an opinion the masses don’t want to hear I’m turned into the villain and thrown under the bus."
Not all of us agreed with the criticism & not all of us share the unfortunate ways that have been seen.
Pdude, if it's not here, keep sharing interesting information as you always do. We're adults who read, research, and make our own decisions will appreciate it.
I've let a couple of weeks go by watching events unfold.
Post some thoughts:
1st. The personal attacks (mostly children) have been unfortunate, without any foundation or reasoning that contributes anything to those of us who invested in this action years ago. I've studied step by step what Amrn has done, his 10-Qs, I've read everything shared... new users or those who have been posting 2days ago aren't going to tell me anything I don't know.
2st. I reaffirm my idea that being extremely critical of many of Amrn's BoD performances I'm not going to give AD 7 reps without contributing something more to his plans.
3st. However, I consider all this action extremely good for the action and even for Vacespa as a medicine. It gives you visibility and value.
The rise in SP has allowed me to close many option contracts with profit that I will continue to reinvest when the VI tells me to.
4th. As this kick in the balls to the current Bod is going to come in very handy, their golden goose could end and leave a big stain on their resume, I hope they improve their communication, maybe they are less greedy in their remunerations (or AD forces them to be more demanding requirements) and activate to get those approvals that give us an idea of peak sales.
5st. And as I've already defended on several occasions, that's the key, peak sales. Knowing how much a BP with their network can milk this drug in the present and in the future (which is not what Amrn is going to get).
From this, I've voted FOR
To remove POW, sorry men (because the kick in the balls is fat)
and appoint two AD advisers.
With this, I don't care that there are some stabs in the following councils, general meetings or that each party looks for a BP favorable to their interests (let's not be naive, each BoD will have their interests and career after this) and that they place bids on the table.
Sorry by the price
"Vazkepa is taken as two tablets twice daily, and has a list price of £144.21 per pack of 120 capsules, although NICE notes that its cost “may vary in different settings because of negotiated procurement discounts.”
About BO & Value.
NICE UK guide CVD 2023
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/gid-ng10178/documents/draft-guideline-2
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ta805
1.3.51 Do not offer omega 3 fatty acid compounds to prevent CVD to any of the
21 following:
• people who are being treated for primary prevention
• people who are being treated for secondary prevention
• people with CKD
• people with type 1 diabetes
• people with type 2 diabetes.
Icosapent ethyl is an exception to this if used as described in NICE's
technology appraisal guidance on icosapent ethyl with statin therapy forDRAFT FOR CONSULTATION
Cardiovascular disease: NICE guideline DRAFT (January 2023) 21 of 37
reducing the risk of cardiovascular events in people with raised
triglycerides. [2014]
1.3.52 Tell people that there is no evidence that omega 3 fatty acid compounds
help to prevent CVD, except use of icosapent ethyl as described in NICE's
technology appraisal guidance on icosapent ethyl with statin therapy.
[2014]
And the UK wants to introduce statins to the entire population +18 at risk of CVD. Statin Market Rises 7% CAGR and $18B worldwide by 2027 will fall very short.
https://www.tctmd.com/news/uks-nice-recommends-lower-risk-thresholds-statin-therapy
https://news.sky.com/story/statins-boost-for-millions-in-uk-as-study-suggests-fewer-side-effects-than-previously-thought-12543076
One market, one indication. 8 million people objective. 175 pounds/month
Exactly, right now to sit and wait. Thank you very much Pdude for your contributions.
I think she is putting too much passion and little head. Of people besides that today everything is to the moon to pass to the hell.
Comment, that I've been quoted, that the peak sales to which I refer, is NEVER that of AMRN. It's the mathematical estimate that these BP make through what it achieves in the 1st, 2nd round of reimbursements. They've entire departments calculating margins, expansion, r&d or how much debt rises for every $ invested in marketing or lobbying.
If AMRN sells $1,500M, BP pays x5, it doesn't expect back those other 5 years (at least) of patent for those sales. She counts as PFE in Canada in highly calculated % each month until she reaches her goal. And in addition to the R&D of the IPE, I think there is a lot of room for applications, MITIGATE, half dose, combo pill and new patents. Cash, NO debt.
China. They'll never pay the €170 in EU. NEVER. But this market isn't the price, it's HIGH volume.
Nothing indicates that you cannot reach the 10% of the population that takes statins as the main market.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5827089/
https://www.scienceopen.com/document_file/f159c6cb-246f-403b-b5e2-001bc765940b/API/CVIA.2016.0051.pdf
In fact here I believe it is very important to have authorized the least amount of IPE for the same (or similar effect) at the cost level.
In this:
Seven million French patients take statins, often for longer periods than they do in other countries, at a cost of €2bn a year to the state.
In China it means 140 MILLION possible patients if it continues the development of its middle class, cities, worse nutrition... Even if it was only a quarter.
THIS is the HUGE market.
We are ALL in the same boat, more head and less heart.
Sorry, ORBAPU, I reply
pdude
I've been thinking calmly, coldly. The puts sold at $1.5 March have already been closed and the Calls purchased for the monthly expiration have been sold.
And I agree 100% with you. As ALWAYS, he demonstrates exceptional reasoning and intelligence.
The offer to give Denner the BOD of the company by buying 26M shares is not clear to me as to its purpose. It is too vague an offer for shareholders with current information. what does it offer? that contribute? what is it aiming for?
The only thing that I consider beneficial, apart from the SP, is that both parties are going to be forced to be clearer. To have better communication and treatment with the shareholder.
I want to wait for MItigate, the first round of reimbursements and see what peak sales leads to.
I want to remember that a multiple for a pharma (which still has r&d lines) is x5 its revenues. Even taking a VERY depressed amount already for the US generics of $367M (net), it appears that the $5 is giving away all the sales abroad. A dream (and who knows if the objective) of a BP.
...a good company does not sell itself, it can be bought. You GIA 100% until you don't... 100% OK.
Yes. 72%Q2 2022, 73% Q3 2022.
It must also be noted that the large variation in $/€ and the accumulation of inventory (which is usually valued at cost price and not at sale) are not taken into account & restructuring.
https://investor.amarincorp.com/static-files/63d409b8-6ced-4ac3-bf2f-9a26f17583ab
But yes, the gross margin has always been spectacular. It is something that to evaluate the peak sales or the valuation multiples of the company is invaluable.
It'll also be quite interesting to see the evolution of revenues.
In %'s, the loss of market share has been falling up to 60%, but it has been affecting less and less in percentage to the fall in income. I finally imagine coupons or fewer offers (more average profit per unit sold).
Apart from the pressure for the agreement with HN and what can come out of the Hikma trial, it would be a very good sign to see the $90M of revenues or more.
& any of ROW aportation.
A little weird the subs but come on:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/10lfREGN5aJtzjl2m7J_-YjgxDVupJtbB/view?usp=sharing
Today finally, some serious work beyond topics about the EPA in Spain.
I hope it looks good
Perfectly valid reasoning.
I'm going to believe that in countries with public health system and negotiating prices (not like in the USA based on discount cards), as soon as things go well, you can ask for $3B and the usual multiplier is more, like x5.
Another thing is that it generates hype for other research or lines with the same molecule (imagine, same product, without sales changes and new patents) or the combo with the statin:
Market expected $17.34 Bn by 2027
I still think that Pfizer in Canada is NOT a coincidence. She can multiply x2 or x3 those sales and product lines.
I keep saying and I have put it more times, MY personal opinion and I will stay until the end.
...put all not the part:
"US population is 330m, Western Europe +600 to add China, Canada, Australia, New Zealand...
Neither do you count the rest of the investigations (a molecule, many applications to investigate) or the combo pill.
Adding everything up, that's why I'm still here and I won't leave until the BO or that peak sales is reached..."
I'm not here to convince anyone. If you don't see it clearly, put it short
China this is something that has me baffled. Various causes of silence:
Collapse due to covid 0 policy (of the entire Chinese bureaucracy).
Need for financing to launch and pay royalties. Let's not forget that it is a small company with more lines of research of its own.
Waiting for a better deal with a BP to help them. Which would be the deal of a lifetime for them. they could do R&D and exploit their products and licenses.
I would almost bet on the first.
The key remains the estimated peak sales. If Novartis believes it will exceed $2B, it has paid slightly less than that x5 peak revenue. And it is a common multiple in BO & merger
https://reconstrategy.com/2022/08/an-innovative-sales-strategy-for-a-pivotal-drug-leqvio/
What`s the target population of Vacespa/Vazkepa?
What`s that sales peak?
That is the key why Denner has gotten into it
And before talking about generics, US population is 330m, Western Europe +600 to add China, Canada, Australia, New Zealand...
Neither do you count the rest of the investigations (a molecule, many applications to investigate) or the combo pill.
Adding everything up, that's why I'm still here and I won't leave until the BO or that peak sales is reached.
We should fire them all at the next general meeting of shareholders.
Signed: A shareholder
Great as always PharmacyDude
There is more movement here, today Sabouret who defends the use and availability of the EPA in France, today links a defense of Bhatt.
A great overview in this issue about #EPA, #JELIS, #REDUCE_IT, #STRENGH. Very useful as EPA may probably be available on the French Market during 2023. #lipids https://t.co/0UQRYyIDNR
— SABOURETCardiologist (@SABOURETCardio) February 19, 2022
We can only thank you for your efforts.
Good job.
Wherever we arrive
Thank you Marjac!! no matter what happens you have made us PROUD
Edding Ph. has it's HK IPO pending.
& They wanted:
...plans to raise up to $200M via a Hong Kong listing...
I imagine related to the launch and the milestones that have to be paid to AMRN.
It is VERY important that you have your terms and conditions (perhaps penalties or exemptions if they do not comply, it will not be a blank check in terms).
They are expanding by buying licenses.
This is the HK IPO documentation (you know I do my due diligence constantly??)
https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2021/104071/documents/sehk21121501528.pdf
It is general problem in IPOs in HK. China wants more control.
https://www.ft.com/content/7faaa91e-e190-4e98-aeab-f1287aedd21d
Great as always. Pdude
Not only Covid (& Prepare wasn't a 100% failure because the anti-inflammatory effect is there).
We have Cardio link 9
& Mitigate:
clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show...
...reduce the sequelae of laboratory-confirmed viral upper respiratory infection (URI)-related (i.e., COVID-19, influenza, and other known viral respiratory pathogens) morbidity and mortality in a high-risk cohort of adults with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD)
Here I only read you, since the level is brutal. Some of you will know me as ST or TW wikthor.
First and again, thank you Marjac. Your work is priceless, like that of the regulars on this forum.
Something that may sound weird.
What if they are looking to add the active ingredient to the Vacespa / Vazkepa encapsulation itself?
In the end, they are a series of active ingredients for sale all over the planet. Directly from the chemicals that produce it:
https://www.indiamart.com/proddetail/atorvastatin-calcium-trihydrate-22113079030.html
https://www.simsonpharma.com/product/rosuvastatin-calcium
https://es.made-in-china.com/co_hbyanxi/product_CAS-147098-20-2-Rosuvastatin-Calcium_rrsngrneg.html
I don't know what the English expression is like, to try a bluff?
But I think they are making visible how big the market can be to add for a BP and that it can start a bidding process for that sweet peak sales.
Because it is not the same to risk now and pay $ 20 than if it is already a blockbuster drug, approved worldwide and growing exponentially in sales.
I have always commented that the statin market is created and is a VERY important part of the cake:
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/statin-market-2021-growth-opportunities-market-shares-future-estimations-and-key-countries-and-forecast-by-2027-2021-11- 18? Tesla = y
"Statin Market: was valued US $ 14.1 Bn in 2020 and is expected to reach US $ 17.34 Bn by 2027, at a CAGR of 3% during a forecast period."
For a BP to capture with a new drug that market is colossal.
I read Marjac's work here on IHub, it is invaluable.
THanks
Amarincorp or some Hedge type BB or Denner, should take the reins and fund any appeal that continues. For them it's peanuts.
I try to do outreach work through TW since Amarin doesn't.
There're more later studies. And the placebo was not the same in others, Cherry & Jelis without placebo...https://t.co/qcE1nnJp53https://t.co/sIsk7FK0KShttps://t.co/w1MvecPX9rhttps://t.co/qcE1nnJp53
— May's Financial Options (@MayOptions) December 15, 2021
But @Amarincorp should be doing this