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Other than $TSLA getting a reduced rating from HSBC today with a $146.00 price target, (well see how that works out) not much else worthy of mentioning I could find today.
HSBC said that Tesla CEO Elon Musk is undoubtedly an asset, but said his prominence presents a "considerable 'single man' risk" and while Tesla has many concept-stage ideas, the commercialization of these ideas may take longer than the market and stock's valuation currently reflecting.
Tomorrow is a new day. Carpe Diem mentality tomorrow.
Westrock Company ( $WRK ) is showing some interesting call activity primarily being motivated by the 15 DEC 23 $37.50C.
Volume is 5,174 compared to an Open Interest of 120.
https://www.advfn.com/stock-market/NYSE/WRK/options?expiry=20231215&strikes=10
This would imply new positions and using Options Flow, all the Call’s purchased today were bought at the ask price which to me, suggests Bullish intent.
https://www.advfn.com/tools/options-flow?symbols=WRK
After looking, their QTR earnings is scheduled prior to Thursday’s market open. This could explain the high volume today.
Staying on the sidelines for this one but I will def be putting this on my watchlist.
Happy Hunting Everyone!
Well, it’s been a crazy week…
Another inflation warning from J. Pow yesterday,
Yields on the 10 year T-Note briefly topped 5% for the first time since July 2007,
U.S. crude oil moved back above $90 per/barrel,
And the $VIX climbed above 21 for the first time since early May… This may suggest the $SPX could experience sharper moves.
But never let a bad situation go to waste. There will be plays out there with all this uncertainty. 🧐
US economy adds 336,000 jobs in September, above expectations of 170,000.
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%, which was above expectations of 3.7%.
The US economy has now added jobs for 39 consecutive months.
IMO this likely indicates a longer Fed pause.
People's Bank of China injected liquidity and pledged to step up policy coordination.
Let's pray for a rebound day. My long options are getting hammered.
Happy Wednesday to Everyone.
Interesting… PacWest Bancorp $PACW on the 27 OCT 23 $6.50P.
Volume on this contract is 5,397 versus open interest of 7.
After more investigation, $PACW is tentatively marked to report Q3 earnings on 26 OCT 23 after closing bell. Positioning of this size tells me that someone is trying to capitalize on the Earnings.
Staying away for now for me but still interesting. Still rolling with my $MET (which is stinky right now) and my $ABBV.
https://www.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/PACW/options?expiry=20231027&strikes=10
$ABBV Update:
Very Happy about this. Once I started learning the Option Flow, I took a 19 JAN 24 150C Position at $4.90 on 09/06/2023.
Today, 09/18/2023, the B/A $9.20/$9.35.
The OI right now is about 22x higher than the Volume. This may indicate a market in consolidation and or the market is prepping to break out in either direction.
Still riding this wave as of now.
Don’t forget it's flu season lol.
WestRock Company $WRK has some odd Call Volume vs OI activity today.
20 OCT 23 $40.00C is the position I noticed. Volume on this contract is 5,664 vs. OI 82.
With a very low B/A $0.35/$0.40, this suggests to me a bullish intent.
Westrock is America’s 2nd largest packaging company.
I would have expected a longer time frame buy with the holidays around the corner, so for now just keeping my eye on this one.
I am taking a postion today on MetLife, $MET. At time of posting the stock is pricing at $65.94, almost a 6 month high.
$MET was upgraded from a Hold to Buy rating and has a price target of $72.00 from $58.00
B +5 $MAT 17 NOV 23 $67.50C @ $1.65
B/A. $1.65/$1.75
Volume and OI are on Calls are massively outnumbering Puts.
Now I wont mind all those Insurance TV ads lol.
Hold on.
Pharm Company Update...
Moderna $MRNA is up today ~3.30%. Today they announced that a redeveloped type of its RNA-based flu shot met its initial goals in a final stage trial.
This result could facilitate the path to seek regulatory approval for the influenza vaccine.
According to a Bloomberg report, “an accelerated approval would allow the shot to be approved in the U.S. based on the current findings while Moderna conducts a larger study to confirm that the vaccine prevents disease symptoms.”
Another one to keep an eye on. No position taken as of this post, but added to the never ending watchlist.
New 52-week lows ...
(110 new lows today):
Advance Auto Parts $AAP ~$59.49
Crown Castle Inc $CCI ~$96.37
Illumina $ILMN ~$150.77
"Decongestant found in many cold, allergy medicines doesn’t actually work, FDA advisors say" - CNBC
"In a unanimous vote, advisors said oral versions of phenylephrine – found in versions of drugs like Nyquil, Benadryl, Sudafed and Mucinex – aren’t effective."
This could have a massive impact on $PG and $JNJ stock.
At time of posting, $PG is down 1.76% but $JNJ up .52%
Wow lots of money being tossed around really quickly yesterday
Well... Hello there my bearish friend...
Odd put activity in Yum Brands Inc. $YUM which is up 1% as of this post...
OI on Calls vs Puts is 33 to 441 on the 15 SEPT 23 Position.
The massive Put buy was a 1,000 contract block purchased at ASK price.
One can assume this is a bearish position based on a Put @ Ask.
Not taking any position on this but just some usual put activity.
I love this tool lol. So much fun, for me.
https://www.advfn.com/options/live-options-flow?symbols=YUM
Just a heads up... Research to come but... Good to know...
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Inc. $CRNX is up BIG today
The Pharm Company stated that, Paltusotine, its experimental treatment for rare hormonal disorder called Acromegaly succeeded in a late-stage trial.
Sunday, Crinetics stated 83% of patients treated with paltusotine had the ability maintain growth-factor levels vs the opposite end, 4% of patients receiving the placebo.
Another late-stage trial will be conducted in 2024 Q1, the company said that it intends to submit an application to seek approval for paltusotine from the FDA next year.
OI on CvP's. wow.
https://www.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/CRNX/options?expiry=20231020&strikes=50
Whoa… Found this little nugget…
Vale S.A. $VALE:
• 06 OCT 23 $14.00C … Volume is 21,936 vs. OI of 2,625.
• 06 OCT 23 $15.00… Volume 18,562 vs. OI of 143.
Very high discrepancy with the V/OI ratio. Gut feeling the expected price to be around... $14.30???
Looking into:
https://www.advfn.com/stock-market/NYSE/VALE/options?expiry=20231006&strikes=10
Update on $ABBV
So far so good.. $ABBV price up to ~$149 and the B/A $6.75//$6.90. The OI on the Calls to Puts is about 1.5/1 from an original 5/1 at purchase.
With the spread widening a little bit and the ratio of OI lowering, If I were to pull out now... It would be an approximate 38% profit.
Still gonna stay on the rollercoaster for now but ready to pull the zip line in necessary.
https://www.advfn.com/stock-market/NYSE/ABBV/options?expiry=20240119&strikes=10
Wow $AMC getting hammered today. Decided just to take a little look see at the options flow...
~$1 Million Premium Position Put to Bid & ~$576k Premium Position Put to Bid. I figured there would be some big premiums today.
Put to Bid's, this would suggest this investor has a Bullish sentiment on $AMC
Update: I took a position on this today:
B +5 $ABBV19 JAN 24 150C @ $4.90
B/A: $4.85/$5.00
The OI on the Call was almost 5x more than the Put. Such a large difference suggests, to me, a Bullish market sentiment.
135 days out! Don't forget your flu shot this season 😛
Small sample size… However:
Stock: $ABBV
Price on Sept 5, 2019 : $66.64
Price on Jan 3, 2020: $88.17
Price on Sept 4, 2020 : $91.52
Price on Jan 4, 2021: $107.18
Price on Sept 7, 2021 : $110.45
Price on Jan 4, 2022: $135.33
Price on Sept 6, 2022: $137.30
Price on Jan 2, 2023: $162.40
Price on Sept 5, 2023: $~146.10
Price in Jan 2024: ???
Interesting. This year broke a small trend.
More to come.
Another earnings report stock people are talking about all over is $DOCU
Earnings on Thursday.
Options Flow tracking found this little gem...
EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.11. Again, just a forecast.
Just curious what your thought is on this? Does the buyer think there will be a pop then a swift sell off?
I have been following $GTLB since you brought it up.
I read somewhere about an estimate of -0.03 EPS report. Again just a "report"
Someone is gonna get a new pair of shoes tomorrow. I think I am gonna sit this one on the sideline.
Dollar General Corp. $DG -$7.47 to $131.03 at time of posting, probably based on yesterday's Q2 earnings results.
EPS at $2.13 per share versus the $2.47 valuation and revenue at $9.8 billion versus the $9.93 billion estimate.
The DG 01/19/2024 $115.00 Put has volume at 1,008 contracts traded versus 82 open interest.
Interesting
Nvidia Corp. $NVDA down -$7.53 to ~$486.02 at time of posting, mainly being driven by activity on short term expirations.
The NVDA 09/08/2023 $485.00 Put have traded 10,005 contracts versus open interest of 3,750, which suggests fresh positioning.
Ahh... I always love the smell of Options Flow in the Morning.
Happy Friday Everyone.
I so wish I would have long called this Thursday / Friday when it was ~$453.00
The boat as usual is on the backburner.
Interesting Activity:
Hormel Food Corp. $HRL is down $0.23 to $39.52.
Puts over Calls ~24:1 mostly on the 12/15/23 37.00.
Volume on this contract is 2,043 versus open interest of 4, indicating fresh positioning.
Bearish intent?
Chewy Inc, $CHWY, at the time of this posting, is up ~$1.33 to ~$27.43 with a ~3:1 call over put activity as traders are targeting the 10/20/23 30.00 calls.
Volume on this contract is 10,791 vs. open interest of 3,160. This suggests that the volume primarily represents fresh positioning.
Who remembers Rite-Aid?
Drug retailer Rite Aid prepares to file for bankruptcy - WSJ
Reuters
"Aug 25 (Reuters) - Rite Aid Corp $RAD is preparing to file for bankruptcy in coming weeks to address lawsuits the company is facing over its alleged role in the sale of opioids, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the plan.
Shares of the pharmacy retail chain operator fell 35% to 94 cents in afternoon trade.
The Chapter 11 filing would cover Rite Aid’s more than $3.3 billion debt load and pending legal allegations that it oversupplied prescription painkillers, the newspaper reported."
As of this post, it was down to ~$0.70 / share.
Unusual call activity (26:1 over puts) is also being seen in the iShares US Real Estate ETF...
$IYR up $1.07 to $83.74.
Call volume currently stands at 25,179 contracts, 9x the daily average.
Most of today's call volume can be attributed to a large call vertical spread that was sold 12,000 times in the September 15th expiration week. The strikes at play were the September 15th 85.00 and 87.50 strikes.
The trader sold these call vertical spreads at a price of $0.60 when the B/A spread was $0.57 x $0.67 (suggesting bearish intent).
Open interest coming into the day was only 6,500 contracts, collectively, so it appears that these are opening transactions.
The median home sales price is $416,100 as of the second quarter of 2023. That's a 26% increase from 2020, when the median was $329,000.
Inventory is low, driving prices higher, IMO bc homeowners do not want to jeopardize their low interest rate from past mortgages with the current national average:
30 year fixed rate at ~8.1%.
15 year fixed rate at ~7.15%
10/6 ARM ~7.8%
Update on $FULC
I took a LONG position on this yesterday and as of this post... $FULC is up another 16% to a share price of $6.30.
Continuing to track, more to come.
Abercrombie & Fitch, $ANF
Is up 24% today after the teen clothing retailer blew past estimates for the second quarter.
The company reported net income of $56.9 million, or $1.10 a share.
Sales rose to $935.3 million from $805.1 million in the year-ago quarter.
Option activity is 12x the daily average, with the August 25th 50.00 strike calls and the August 25th 49.00 strike puts pacing the way.
Both strikes have traded more than 2,100 contracts already today.
Wow... I hope my vintage sweaters from 25 years ago are selling at a high on PoshMart.
Fulcrum Therapeutics Inc., $FULC , up $2.10 to $6.02
Option volume is running at nearly 14x the daily average on this clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company which is primarily being driven by activity on two contracts on the September 15th expiration:
6.00 call (volume is 3,127 vs. open interest of 0): The majority of the transactions on this contract consisted of various-sized blocks that were being bought at various times for between $0.35-0.55 each, which suggests bullish intent.
7.50 call (volume is 1,833 vs. open interest of 126): The majority of the transactions on this contract consisted of various-sized blocks that were being bought at various times for between $0.20-0.35 each, which suggests bullish intent.
Unusual put activity ~26:1 over calls is being seen in diversified insurance provider Arch Capital Group Inc, $ACGL , -$0.27 to $74.68 which is primarily being driven by activity on the September 15th 70.00 put.
Volume on this contract is 1,918 versus open interest of 363, indicating a fresh positioning.
The bulk of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were being bought around the same time at the ask price of $0.65 each, which suggests a bearish intent.
Unusual Put Activity:
Pure Storage Inc. $PSTG, up $0.32 to $37.14 at time of posting, has a ~12:1 over calls being driven by activity on the October 20th 35.00 put.
Volume on this contract is 3,756 versus open interest of 101, so we know that the activity primarily represents fresh positioning.
The bulk of the transactions on this contract consisted of various-sized blocks that were being bought around the same time at the ask price of $1.70 each, which suggests bearish intent.
4/21 Toy Manufacturing Play Update: Doll of the Year Finalists and Toy of the Year Finalists:
Upon research, the 2023 Toy of the Year Awards shall be held on Sept. 29, 2023 in New York City. Candidates as follows:
ACTION FIGURE OF THE YEAR
Toys that represent a person or fictional character intended for active, imaginative, and narrative-based play.
Gunslinger Spawn with Horse by McFarlane Toys
Heroes of Goo Jit Zu Deep Goo Sea Triple Goo King Hydra by Moose Toys
Jurassic Park Real FX Baby T-Rex by Wow! Stuff
Jurassic World: Dominion Roar Strikers by Mattel, Inc.
Pokémon Train & Play Deluxe Pikachu by Jazwares
Star Wars: Chatter Back Chopper Animatronic by Hasbro
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem by Playmates Toys
DOLL OF THE YEAR
Toys that include baby, toddler, and fashion dolls.
Barbie The Movie Dolls by Mattel, Inc.
CreativeSoul Dolls by Disney Consumer Products
Disney The Little Mermaid Ariel Doll by Mattel, Inc.
Latinistas Fashion Dolls by Purpose Toys
Magic Mixies Pixlings by Moose Toys
The Fresh Beats Collection by World of EPI
Under the Sea Exploring Ariel Doll by JAKKS Pacific
Personal Opinion:
Mattel $MAT is up, as of this post, 1.13% to $21/share.
Doll of the year, Barbie or The Little Mermaid, both manufactured by Mattel, are in the running.
More to come but I am getting more and more excited on my futures play with $MAT
Some unusual put activity (better than 7:1 over calls) is being seen in Shift4 Payments Inc. ( $FOUR + $1.97 to $55.96) which is primarily being driven by a 2,943 contract block that was bought on the September 15th 50.00 put at the ask price of $1.55 (open interest is 2,109).
We know that this block is a new position based on the open interest figure and we can assume that the intent is bearish in nature since the trade took place at the ask price.
"For the third time this week, some unusual call activity (~16:1 over puts) is being seen in the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares ($YANG + $0.72 to $11.47) as option traders primarily target the January 2024 11.00 call.
Volume on this contract is 9,434 versus open interest of 808, so we know that the volume primarily represents new positioning. The bulk of the transactions on this contract consisted of various mid-sized blocks that were being bought at various times at the ask price of $2.90 each.
Since YANG is a leveraged bearish ETF, the positioning suggests that the call buyers are bearish on China."
Intersting...
Opinion:
Possible Long Idea: (Research to Come)
Years and years ago when I had a stock broker mentor from ATL...When we would talk about options and future trading... He always kept telling me to seriously look into toy companies to LONG in the late summer... and those companies were always Companies that make toys and the oncoming of Christmas Spending...
Kids going back to school, parents moving, vacations... etc.etc.... Money not spent on toys.
I would be very curious to track $MAT (Mattel), $HAS (Hasbro), and companies of the like.
Seriously interested in Mattel due to the fact they make Barbie dolls... and over the summer... My guess is that lots of little girls are gonna be asking Santa for Barbies heading into the holiday season based on the blockbuster success of the movie.
Food for thought.