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The question I have is buy back shares with what cash?
When you say 'coiling up', the question I have is "for what?"
Regarding the short covering comments, I have been reading this for months. Who is still shorting??
I know the company is trading for below assets right now. They have a product that's not useless, but hasn't found the right use yet. The management team are a sharp group of bio experts (even if they made some wrong decisions regarding the direction to take the company). But what value does HGEN have in the near term? Why shouldn't it be trading at $0.60?
i'm kicking myself for not adding at 1.7 or below early last week. Another 1k shares would have brought my avg cost basis down a few dollars without breaking the bank. Sitting here in one account with 12.3 and overall 9.1 ACB. I'm so ready to blow by those numbers with good data.
In my last post when I said 9 digits, I think I meant 10... This wait is taking a toll on me.
I'll take any MC that's 9 digits! But 70 SP would be fairly life changing for me.
Seems like everything lining up in the next few weeks. But I still think EUA and first sales revenue probably Mid-end of Q3. The question is how will the market value HGEN until then?
Looking like we will have to wait a bit longer. Best estimates now are reading in to June for TLD delivery. If Data is not yet locked, and it takes 4-6 weeks for data release after that, we're still waiting.
Either way I am long and strong. Even if I lose it all.
I wonder if the bigger volume this morning is insider buying. If that's the case then the database is likely not locked, and Dale doubling up after some smaller buys by other management?
My hope is Durrant missed these presentations working the amended EUA with good data rather than having to crunch the numbers, if they are less stellar than expected.
Is it possible they track so closely due to funds/MM's taking positions in XBI and HGEN itself? I'm thinking a fund could have a position in XBI and then also in the specific holdings of XBI. Now though, HGEN is not in XBI, but their trading strategy applies to all the companies in their 'bio bin'.
Just trying to process your comments. I am not trading HGEN, I hold it as a (speculative) value stock.
Having been that one person, one time to engage the theory I will say I find Jay's commitment to the theory impressive. While I still don't get it, and won't (because I won't spend enough time plotting prices to do so) I'm not in the business of telling people what to believe, especially in this domain. Some people like technical analysis and charting, and some people may have other theories as to why prices move. That's why there is a market. If I was inclined to day trade this, I would be interested in models that provide insight.
I appreciate Don's passion for the science. It truly is amazing what Lenz is able to do, and when the confirmatory study data is released we will all be vindicated. After looking at the science myself, and reading/hearing about severe covid causing 'the body to attack itself' that is the conclusion I came to.
Re: Jay's 20 quarters in the stock - i remember your comments about why you are invested here a few months ago. Very touching and heartfelt. We are all here for different reasons, but most importantly we shouldn't tear each other apart on the way to topline data. Leave the teardowns to the trolls.
Sure seems like the table is being set piece by piece for the release of ACTIV data in the short term. Let's hope all this publicity will finally bring lenz to the forefront as the premier treatment choice for GM-CSF induced disease.
Why the omission to mention the Activ-5 trial?
Does anyone have a good model of the number of treatments, revenue per, and subsequent valuation of the company taking in to account current shares outstanding and 75mil ATM share offering?
I saw one on stocktwits about a month back that looked good, and I will probably use as a base. Is there anything grossly wrong with this poster's logic?
https://stocktwits.com/velvet_religion/message/435896526
I am looking to get my investment strategy tightened up here in the face of our catalysts, such that I wont be swayed by price fluctuation (to the upside). I've already held through our deep trough.
I keep seeing things about 'dark pool' transactions. Was that 1M buy a dark pool trade? If so, what is the benefit to that?
If the MM are trading with the algorithm how have we seen solid movement with HGEN in the last few weeks?
What should I look for to see HGEN has busted out of the algo pattern?
How did it drop 10% right after? Weird movement.
So are we expecting a 10k in addition to the 8K from today?
The points you've listed are all very encouraging. What's difficult to read is the idea of another 3-4 months of wallowing in the low single digits.
I can handle it, just as I have done for the last 5 months, but considering we expect top line data from the ACTIV trial in the next few weeks I'm hoping for some momentum sooner than 3-4 months.
Transcription of JPM call and some analysis.
Petra Vinculado on twitter:
THREAD:
— Petra Vinculado (@PetraVinculado) January 17, 2022
Excerpted, unofficial transcript of @humanigen $HGEN CEO Cameron Durrant's Jan 13 conversation with @jpmorgan's Eric Joseph at #JPM22.
These are Joseph's 2 opening questions about the @NIH ACTIV-5 BET-B clinical trial in the Q&A immediately after the CEO's presi.
1/n
I'm sorry but do you really expect Lenz to command a 10B market cap? What is your time frame for this, 5 years? We are still battling through the approval stages for just one indication (covid). The other studies will complete next year and read out late next year.
Perhaps once approved in US and UK we could see the 2-3B. We can expect Lenz, assuming ACTIV data is good, to have roughly 500 uses a day for COVID initially for COVID assuming large scale orders from US and UK. Until funding is secured for more doses and manufacturing capability is cleared up.
So what is the likely market cap for HGEN (for Lenz) by 3q22? From what I recall they indicated 100k treatments per year, at 10k per treatment. Are they likely to increase these figures? Or decrease the price per dose?
I assume the patents in CAR-T will not contribute to any MC figures (since they are hypothetical).
Do we think there will be a buyout prior to EOY 2022?
regarding MHRA decision in the short term, It does seem inevitable that UK will deny with the reason being the new data so close to publication, but this is my non-expert opinion. I wonder if this is likely and how HGEN will communicate that next week in the conferences.
I remember when the price was just above $18 in august and I decided not to sell, since I had big visions for massive gains after EUA. What a mistake, in hindsight. To be fair, my biggest mistake on this stock has been allocating past my personal target, without considering the downside. I haven't sold any of those higher priced shares I bought, but it is a bit painful seeing the huge red figure every day.
Lesson learned - stick with an appropriate allocation. I'd feel a bit better had I not broken my own rules.
Great summary. Seems like UK is the only hope for short term, and best case for that seems to be by EOY. More than likely UK some time in January. I don't think UK will wait for ACTIV data, since that will run outside the rolling review window (from what I understand). So, hopefully UK likes what HGEN has to offer prior to the ACTIV data. I think HGEN is in the clock-stopped request for more information phase at the moment, with MHRA.
ACTIV data will be available likely 2 months after completion of the study, expected in 1Q22 so data in spring of '22. So, not much expected in USA until late-spring of '22.
Looking like this investment is a hold well in to next year. As they say "if it was easy, everyone would be doing it."
I'm not reading that much in to it. If there was big approval news I think Durrant would be presenting it, since he's the face of the company.
Optimistic, but not expecting much.
I have to admit, I got in to a small position in this stock because of MWM, but after doing significant DD I increased my position to my comfort level. I don't have much experience investing in bio, so I am looking for some examples of how to think about a company moving from clinical to production, in terms of market cap, revenue, and longevity (buy-out?).
How do we look at this company medium and long term. Right now we are sitting on hopes of approval and authorizations for COVID and then the ongoing/upcoming studies for other uses in the pipeline. Prior to realizing this potential, the market will value hgen however it wants.
Once hgen starts moving product, is the sky the limit?
What is the view here regarding the recent UK news of Antiviral purchase? does that eat market share from Lenz?
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-secures-covid-19-antivirals-merck-pfizer-2021-10-20/
New form 4's submitted by
Dale Chappell - CSO
Cameron Durrant CEO
Adrian Kilcoyne CMO
Edward Jordan CCO
https://newsfilter.io/articles/4-form-00eb22e7780d8945bd8d840c6f48b4cc
Giving up salary in Q4 for options. Probably bullish? I guess if I was *extremely well compensated* i might be happy to do the same but giving up real money for shares is something I would sign off on only if I was confident.
I have this slide deck from March 29:
https://s28.q4cdn.com/539885110/files/doc_presentations/Lenzilumab-Phase-3-Results-v8-RXMD-032921-0555h.pdf
This presentation was for the P3 results. I have not been around this long, so I don't have a good handle on the study design and the mITT changes.
Heartbreaking slide 11 expecting EUA granted relatively soon after EUA submission.
Sources: HGEN slides and VeryJerry Stocktwits posts. He posts useful research on HGEN and Lenz, despite the obvious and unfaltering bull angle.
Toci is most effective when administered to pt's with CRP>150, more severe than target for Lenz (CRP<150).
Toci not that effective: https://trialsitenews.com/fda-grants-eua-to-roches-tocilizumab-despite-mixed-study-results/
Actemra (toci) high mortality but somehow already given EUA for Covid (previously used for rheumatoid Arthritis).
HGEN slides:
See the bottom with the star - toci is red box but further along. Lenz has treatment opportunity.
When you look at all this stuff it's boggling to think Lenz was denied EUA. I don't think this is cherry-picking either, the company has shown the drug to be safe and effective. Not particularly clear why it has been given such a hard time!
To which we are rewarded with 16 month lows. Ah well. not selling yet!
Great summary of P3 LIVE-AIR
It's so bleeding obvious that this can treat covid patients successfully. Final submissions to UK by end of this month, which is today (according to Mgmt). Now we are waiting on UK decision, which I am optimistic about. I wonder if they will have issues with the number of patients in the dataset as well? I am not particularly familiar with the MHRA standards for approval, or their ability to delay expecting more data. Then again, more data would be submitted at the end of the 60 day period - " If required, a letter requesting further information (RFI) may be issued by Day 60 with the clock stopped."
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rolling-review-for-marketing-authorisation-applications
So, UK reviews data over next 60 days and if they love it, approved by end of November, or they request more data and have another 40 days after HGEN submits the additional data to make the decision then.
Again, lots riding on this UK submission!
Clear and touching response. I am late to the party, having joined the board after EUA rejection, but the drug potential and management competence is very clear to me. Best of luck to us all.
Jay, You've mentioned you have been an investor for years with HGEN. You must have had some considerable ups and downs.
What keeps you invested in the company?