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A good close but
still a lot of uncertainty on many issues. Could see more selling next week. Have to see what else comes out of Washington and Wall Street this weekend.
GL.
Put my bids in this morning...
a couple hit at the top of the planned scales, we'll see if some more get hit later today.
Only on some names like MCD, WMT, PG, GS, WFC, etc.
Others to watch are ICE, CME, NYX, AAPL, etc. but, this market is still jacking things around.
May put in some low bids early next week on others like GOOG, MA, CHK etc.
GL.
Regarding this morning's action...
The President wouldn't have come on to give his planned confidence speech (moved from 10 am to 10:25 am) with the Dow down 600 or more and with many individual stocks crashing. That's not how this administration works. This morning's rally beforehand could be attributed to many things like the gap fill, Vix spiking, etc. but the reversal was very purposeful.
The Fed and Treasury were totally quiet this morning after markets roiled around the world ahead of our open. In addition, uncharacteristically, no new market operations by them were announced, so likely we may hear that they were in the markets this morning buying S&P futures, at least starting the buying at the open and then triggering some covering of the large short interest. I would tend to believe at this point that they (the PPT) were intervening again this morning ahead of the president's speech.
Sooner or later, the market forces will take these markets to where they need to go, not where the Plunge Protection Team wants them to go.
Regarding "earnings have to get cut
the next several quarters" comment.
On IBD's Screen of the Day for Friday, 10/10/08, it's titled "Estimate Beaters". When you click on the link the results page comes up blank with the following message:
"No stocks met the criteria for today's Screen of the Day"
I have not seen that happen before.
This market might go tomorrow...
down, big.
hahaha!!! Exactly!!!
LOL!
You know, Paulson would make a great Bozo the Clown. Just think of him coming out dressed like that at one of his press conferences. You know, just the shape of his head with some crazy red hair sticking out, and then his voice and all that stuttering! It would be a great show! And even his long awkward gait, it would only be more awkward with some size 22 floppy black shoes on his feet.
Before he comes out you'ld get the merry melodies music and then the announcer, "Bozo's Circus is On the Air!"
Ok, gotta get back to the screens.
LOL, that's good Metro...
about Elmer Fudd.
It is what it is, regarding the clown show. The McCain campaign just released their revised statement on his mortgage bailout plan he announced during the debate opening - also clownish. So he needs one of those red balls to put over his nose and join the group. Sorry! But, you've got to read the latest statement. :)
All I can share is what I've been doing - just try to protect capital and make some money when you see a sure thing (which is hard in these types of markets). I know how easy it is to get whacked on even some of the "sure" things with all these clowns changing rules and seizing companies and their reactionary market interventions, as well as commodity swings, huge hedge funds liquidating, etc.
Tight stops and minimal risk right now.
If we can get a washout despite all of the efforts of the Plunge Protection Team, like early next week or later in the month, that should be a sure thing to jump on (at least for a while).
GL.
They could do either of those
if they don't first have the SEC extend the short selling ban.
The Plunge Protection Team is working late again tonight, but, it looks like we are getting some semblance of a real plunge anyway.
Be interesting to see what their next tool is; they are clearing out the shed.
GL.
Too bad that didn't last
into the close.
Well, let's see if the brilliant SEC follows through and lets the short selling ban on the financial stocks expire tonight (expiration was 3 days after the president signed Emergency Economic Stabilization Act or 10/17/08 whichever came earlier, per the SEC order).
That will help the rest of this week. Not.
But, who knows what Cox is thinking.
GL.
markets filled that gap down pretty quick...
ok, lets see what we get here at 10am.
It's not enough...
Bernanke's 1/2 pt coordinated cut.
Not this late.
Besides the FOMC minutes released on Tuesday, Bernanke's speech on Tuesday matched everything in the minutes that after stating the problems he notes they are still concerned about inflation.
That's the problem, that's what the market doesn't like, that's what going to take us down after a brief pause here.
If you've got cash next year, you've got deals coming your way in everything and anything. There is going to be massive deflation.
GL.
Might as well stay up now...
Bloomberg had a well written news article on Tuesday also on the SEC and the report they censored on the agency's failure to regulate and do anything ahead of Bear Stearns' collapse.
Here's an excerpt:
"The report, by Inspector General H. David Kotz, was requested by Senator Charles Grassley to examine the role of regulators prior to the firm's collapse in March. Before it was released to the public on Sept. 26, Kotz deleted 136 references, many detailing SEC memos, meetings or comments, at the request of the agency's Division of Trading and Markets that oversees investment banks.
``People can judge for themselves, but it sure looks like the SEC didn't want the public to know about the red flags it apparently ignored in allowing Bear Stearns and other investment banks to engage in excessively risky behavior,' the Iowa Republican said in an e-mailed statement.
An unedited version of the 137-page study posted to Grassley's Web site Sept. 26 showed that Bear Stearns traders used pricing models for mortgage securities that ``rarely mentioned' default risk. "
The rest of the article talks about the SEC's "failed mission".
Let's see if they still take off their temporary short selling ban rule tomorrow night into this mess. That will be brilliant.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a6iXuZJG1L44&refer=home
NYX was on that temporary ban list - if they let the rule expire you may need an extra beer on Thursday Metro.
Bernanke has waited so long again...
on cutting that if he does an emergency coordinated quarter point tomorrow (Wednesday) the market just sells anyway.
Half point may hold for a bit before the selling resumes.
3/4 pt. might get some attention.
He needs to take it down a full percentage point since he is so far behind. Do we get that? No.
What a disgrace.
What the heck do those two guys debating tonight even want with stepping into this mess. God bless them.
May need some more beers...
tomorrow. It's 11 p.m. out here in California and Asian markets are down 6%, Australia -5%. YM down over 200 pts.
Read those FOMC minutes released today (Tuesday 10/7). They don't even make sense - they list and state how everything has fallen off since August including inflation pressures due to falling energy and commodity costs, and then contradict themselves about their concern for continued inflation. It's really unbelievable. They really don't get it, what's coming.
I guess I still hold out hope for a news release in the morning about a coordinated rate cut - depending of course on how much pain Europe falls into today.
But, Bernanke is just an asshat. That's not meant to be derogatory at all - it just perfectly describes that he has truly had his head up his ass the past couple of years.
Sad thing is, after all of this, the professor is finally getting some in-depth on-the-job experience and by early next year he may actually start to get it all. Too bad he'll have destroyed any hope of saving the economy by then. He'll be forever behind the curve until it's too late.
Unemployment is going to be disastrous next year. Earnings have to get cut at least out several quarters now.
I gotta go make sure I have some beer in the frig for tomorrow too.
Another link on this CDS
auction day:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6beabcdc-8f51-11dd-946c-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1
He's going to have to come up with something...
His open letter to the U.S. Representatives of the state was just read on the floor during the debate this morning regarding the bailout bill and is another warning shot. He outlined some of the problems coming up and it's not pretty.
The municipalities (in CA and elsewhere) are also facing many problems coming up.
The Bailout, or as Senator Bunning...
repeatedly termed it "The Paulson Plan" is being discussed this morning in the Senate hearing room.
All good opening statements by all of the Senators. Unfortunately, the hearing just got preempted by Bush at the United Nations. Hopefully, Bloomberg switches back quickly.
The Senators comments are surprisingly reassuring this morning.
Good! Very Good!
NYX on the emergency order
list by the SEC of securities temporarily banned from short selling, along with NDAQ, ICE, CME, and NMX.
NMX? Yes, that is on the list too.
At least they didn't include ISE.
GL.
Change the flag and...
Kudlow is going to have to change his tagline to:
"I believe free market Socialism is the best path to prosperity"
If he starts talking about Goldilocks again, I will have to turn him off for a long time.
GL today and next week as Treasury and Congress finalize and push their new legislation.
Great Post LG...
There will be a large outcry if the SEC does enact this. Cox will likely be forced out if the outcry is loud enough - and it is already starting tonight and not just on the financial channels.
Good luck to all tomorrow and next week.
Hey Metro...
Good to hear from you. I didn't buy NYX, but, did buy some GS after that dive today - was watching MS and GS closely. There was a double bottom on a short time frame so went for it. Keeping it for a flip probably only until tomorrow. Depends what else is disclosed tomorrow from D.C. ahead of the weekend.
But, I think the whole crew - Treasury, Fed, SEC, the Administration, Congress, FDIC, etc. gets low marks so far. But, it is what it is. More of a fascinating study of human nature and our society and government and now politics.
They are still not wanting to react, then being forced to react, and so we'll just have to see what comes out by next Monday. But, they are still feeling pressure since they got so far behind the curve and it will take some time now to evaluate all of these moves. Hopefully, they don't feel too desperate and go too far like for example with these rules banning short sales the SEC is considering now.
That, and with all of these emergency last minute reactions since January, we have never gotten a flush with everything lined up for a strong bottom, although looking at some different indicators especially for the financials, the July low and this week are pretty close.
Been trading some E-mini's still and otherwise been sitting on mostly all cash and sleeping well and watching it all unfold.
Some good interviews on Bloomberg today on the next wave of problems coming later this year with Municipalities.
I'm looking at some other names too like GOOG, consumer staples, etc.
Good luck in this interesting time.
Larry Kudlow is going to have to change his tagline on his show about free market capitalism. We don't have that anymore in the US.
Good article by Cramer on NYX
today on Real Money titled "The NYSE is Done".
Good reading.
gl.
Their deposit base is shrinking
day by day.
Some in Congress have been quietly working...
on trying to get the Constitution amended on that issue - to allow naturalized citizens, like Schwarzenegger, to become president. I believe it's been proposed every year since he became governor, but, not enough support to get to vote, yet. Might get less support in congress, however, after this next election depending on how things go.
I still like that line in the movie Demolition Man about the Schwarzenegger Library and then Sandra Bullock refers to changing the constitution before he became president.
BATS ECN says it won...
SEC approval to operate as registered national exchange as listed in the news today.
Probably one item that is mostly built into NYX and some extent CME prices already as there is not a lot of volume today, but, they are both pushed down again.
GL.
Big move...
although no news is out this morning, I believe it's because of David Pogue's piece he did yesterday on the latest Naturally Speaking 10 package. Can't get a better sales pitch and/or free advertising out there than that.
A great buy point several days ago, on Tuesday as it cleared Monday's high. But, I added some today on this move. You've got the double bottom you are coming off of. There will be less risk if you wait for it clear the proper double bottom pivot, but, I like it, and that piece Pogue did.
GL.
Thanks Metro...
I'll look over that site later when I get some time.
Re: NYX - long-term, the value is still there. But, man, is it weak still. I didn't study that last quarter, but, looking at the revenue and eps, it really fell off from last qtr, and just barely above a year ago - so the sellers correctly knew what was coming. The Nasdaq numbers were improving with their acquisitions and got a quick bump, but have not seen #'s on US market share. Just looking at NY composite charts, trading volume was down for the recent qtr, but also don't know about the action in markets in Europe. As a value play, this is still a good one, but, man is that chart ugly. It's kind of ? - stunning. Good luck with it.
Me, I'm long other positions - some recently: MCD, BMI, CALM, a little tech, etc. But, tight stops, not much size, and otherwise, scalping some e-minis.
Wanted to mention a great read as it has been a tuff year for most people: Trading In the Zone by Mark Douglas. It's on psychology only and well written throughout. Great stuff for a market like this.
It'll be interesting to see the images from China in the next several weeks. Hope they get a little rain.
GL.
Hey Metro!
Good luck with everything.
I'm still leaning towards D-fence as so many individual charts are a mess. I liked MCD yesterday, but, stocks like that are really not my style.
Don't know if you saw it, but, last Friday's show was on the 1-year anniversary of the Rant, and on the opening segment Cramer just told it like it is and basically ripped Bernanke. It was actually great television. I hope some in Washington watched it.
GL.
Also, after seeing her new video yesterday in response to McCain's celebrity commercial, I'm writing in and voting for Paris Hilton now! I seriously wonder why our 2 candidates couldn't come up with an energy plan like she promotes in the video. More great television!
Garmin Chipotle's Christian Vandevelde...
had a tough day yesterday in the Tour. Had a small crash on the last descent but, rode very strong today on Stage 17 and is a favorite for the last time trial. Although after yesterday, he is now over 4 minutes off the leader Sastre, so probably too far behind. He really needed to pull up and stay with Sastre today and trim off 2 minutes.
Close race for the general classification top 5 leaders. Christian is overall sixth.
GL.
Hey Metro...
yes, caution is still due until we get some confirmations in the markets. I've been sitting on a fair amount of cash and lately every time I wade back in, I get stopped out pretty quickly. I'm watching the Tour and taking it mostly easy for now.
How are you feeling? Hope things are better than from last spring.
GL.
Yep, I also had some CD's at
Downey Savings and I cashed those out last summer (2007) when they came to maturity, probably like everybody else, and took my money with me, never to return to another Downey branch. That was when DSL was trading in the $60's. That one is now at $1.35 today - down only 20% today - not as bad as Wamu.
GL.
It could fail...
and it's now at $3.09 as I write, that's why I opened a new WFC checking account last November when this was in the teens. Time to transfer some money over and start using the new account and stop using my Wamu account (which was originally a Coast Savings account many years ago). FDIC will back up deposits, but, don't even want to mess with this if/when it falls apart or more likely someone else steps in.
GL.
Yep, it's staying ugly...
getting a relief bounce right now across the screens as I write. But, with continued problems like the IMB news on Friday afternoon, WM skidding today, and continued FRE and FNM "news" (noise), every short-term buy point lower stays just that - a short-term trade and flip quickly thereafter.
Getting close(r) to a bottom, but, don't see it yet and still don't see any real leadership from Washington - not from the Fed, Treasury, FDIC, Congress, the Bush Administration, SEC, nor anyone. So, gonna maintain some longer-term short positions - even after covering some today. Definitely don't have any confirmations to load up on anything long yet regardless of different indicators.
GL.
Team Garmin Chipotle's
Will Frischkorn was in the breakaway today on the third stage of the Tour de France and finished second. Overall he is now third. They've got a good team although relatively made up of mostly unknowns.
How about NXY instead of NYX?
Some pressure today as it came in just below it's 50. But, this is one to watch depending on how oil trades going forward.
NYX just continues ugly along with this market.
Tomorrow morning will be interesting - I'm expecting more declines/losses than economists are estimating and expecting on the jobs number.
GL.
Just following up...
with a little more disclosure. While doing some select scaled buying at this juncture, I'm also plenty protected with QID, short the Q's and a couple of other plays for the downside.
Viva la Tour - starts this weekend.
GL.
HA-Ha!!!
How you doing Metro?
Actually, I'm waiting to see if today (or soon) we get that shwoosh down at some point. It could happen this time, unlike in January and March when Bernanke and Co. were pulling tricks out of their collective hat at the lows to try to make up for their previous inaction and/or totally behind the curve actions at just about every point - which they'll never admit triggered all that selling. They're sitting it out at the moment.
I'm looking for a flush, but, even if not, some stocks have really taken a hit, looks like time to start putting in some limit orders and see if I get filled - on some select names.
NYX - wow! new all time low. Incredible. I'm more interested in CME this morning on a related play. Missed my second buy at 352 just now by one penny. Woops, just got it while writing. Set up a wide scale if you are not worried.
GL today and tomorrow Metro.
The main problem, besides
this market, is they keep having to cut their fees to compete for order flow. In Europe, some estimates are as high as 50% of orders are matched outside of the displayed exchanges.
To continue their competition with other pools, i.e. BATS, as well as dark pools, etc. NYX is going to have to keep coming up with new platforms, like SmartPool.
With their estimates being cut, I guess we can expect more weakness, but, at some point, like a good double bottom sometime soon, this really becomes a great value play. Like some of those others you mentioned - and like lots of other Dow stocks.
OT - this "green" or more accurately alternative energy movement is really picking up steam with oil ramping.
I first noticed some changed behavior three weeks ago when everyone on the freeways dropped their speed from 75 to 65. In our own neighborhood people are planning and having meetings to start putting up small wind turbines - and we already have a lot of solar panels on the hills and roofs. Honda will have their new fuel cell car on the road in July also out here. And I did like McCain's $300 million battery initiative proposal today. Interesting stuff on the new planet green channel as well. Need to get a list of top stocks for all of this happening.
Thinking how cool someday to have your solar array generate power all day (for net metering) and also runs your home photocatalytic hydrogen generator so you can fill up your fuel cell car in the evening. A total local and decentralized energy infrastucture (the best for security) and clean energy independence for all.
GL.
NYX looks like
dead money even with the AMX deal news today. The buyback looks like it offers no support. And I noticed Cramer finally dumped his entire position as it fell below the 50 dma 4 weeks ago.
CME is moving on the NMX news and the upgrade. I still like that one. Similarily, with more people leaving like Cramer, NYX could get going later at some point on any upgrade as this AMX deal looks to go still later this year.
NYSE Euronext did get a little exposure over the weekend from the U.S. Open on Westwood's play (his sponsor) with Tiger. What a great contest - all last week and especially Saturday and Monday. Hope some of you got to see it.
Trading days sure are better with the U.S. Open, live coverage from the ISS, or other good television going on in the background.
GL.