Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
That's good Metropick,
I like your description about your wife's view and now, rolling her eyes. That's good you two are involved together on all of it.
Hope all is well.
Did anyone hear Cramer's latest on NYX?
He did a segment on his show yesterday, 12/11/08, and likes it again, right here, which is holding it up here high in the range today.
Thought I'd post a note since this board was started after he made it his pick of the year, a couple of years back. One of his worst picks ever I think he has called it.
Good luck.
Paulson seemed to confirm yesterday...
that he doesn't know what to do, or better, he's doesn't know what he and the rest of the government is doing. I'm glad he wants to do the right thing, at least that what he implied, but, that won't really help us.
Besides Obama's long list of real problems to address, now it seems a lot of energy will be diverted to reversing the new long list of items the Bush administration is pushing through here now until the end.
Good luck.
Didn't buy NYX today,
but got some CME.
Another wild ride day, so had to flip it at the close.
Let's see what tomorrow brings us after the FOMC.
GL.
Yes ajtj, he is...
don't know if you caught much of his appearance last week, but, that was another sign of people's agitation with this economy. More people were grilling him than the usual handful who you can always count on for some fireworks.
On a related observation - some of the gaffes by some of our members in Congress are truly embarrassing at times during these hearings, however, sometimes if you catch some of the members from these committees on C-SPAN on the floor, and they have more than 5 minutes allotted to them like during a hearing, then they are actually sounding pretty good on many of our current problems while giving a speech. A few of them! It gives one hope!
Yes, we sure are...
It's also been interesting watching the financial channels, esp CNBC. I'm sure many have noticed the agitation of many of their commentators during the last couple of weeks. Some like Ratigan are just going off every night. More power to him, he's got a good platform.
The best thing I saw today was The Daily Show. Stewart had a segment on Greenspan's testimony last week - hope some of you can catch the later broadcast. It was pretty good.
GL the next several days.
Closed on the lows
at a new low.
But, no climatic selling except for a couple of names. Volume is less than Friday.
How long can this go on???
Ben may decide he wants to cut 75 bps to minimize the next downdraft. Not that it's gonna make a lot of difference. So, no, probably not. Just 50 bps.
Dick Grasso is on Bloomberg TV
this morning. Good interview and alot of discussion on NYX and the future outlook which he very bullish on.
Hope some of you caught it.
GL.
Once again, the overnight session...
following the pain around the world is erased mostly as the futures bounce up this morning.
Someone does not, cannot afford, a big plunge. But, sooner or later, the last wave of forced selling will come.
I'm putting in some of my low bids again this morning. They anticipate a plunge at some point. Don't know if those circuit breakers referenced in that other message will have to be used or not. One would think this week is the time if it happens.
If those bids are hit, fine. If not, fine too.
Good luck.
I mentioned a couple of the Fed's
planned actions, the larger ones. TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) and MMIFF (Money Market Investor Funding Facility). I forgot one - the CPFF. That's the Commercial Paper Funding Facility.
The Fed stated that $1.3 Trillion, with a T, of CP would be eligible for this program which will begin Monday.
Why is this one important? It's to help keep businesses running smoothly the rest of this year and next year basically (and not get a much bigger spike in unemployment down the road).
Our financial system is much more diverse now than in previous crisis. Money for corporations is raised from many sources other than banks now - venture capitalists, IPO's, secondaries, and the commercial paper market, as well as banks and other more standard institutional sources.
The CP market has been one of the many problems especially the last couple of months. This will help.
Thanks for the link;
that's a good article, especially for times like these.
I hope our worse is about over, regarding daily plunges and we don't need any of those circuit breakers.
I'm going to be looking for a bounce, like everyone. But, next year, next couple could be tight, and I imagine the market is going to reflect that for awhile.
Depends how many New Deal-like programs our next president enacts come early next year.
GL.
Hey buyittradeit, yes the PPT exists
really, and have been doing their job, which at times has been very frustrating, at least to me. It's just been less and less effective lately, even with more and more money thrown around.
Many people, like Kevin Phillips have writen some about the history of the PPT - check out his latest book "Bad Money". But, basically, before Alan Greenspan, the internet, CNBC, Bloomberg TV, etc. the Fed was an even more secretive entity inside the beltway, actually many federal agencies were back then.
After the 1987 crash, President Reagan established the President's Working Group on financial markets. The Plunge Protection Team was the nickname given the group. The group consisted of then newly appointed Greenspan, Treasury Sec Jim Baker, and the rest of the usual suspects.
Some of their "secret" operations were rumored included buying S&P futures on certain down days, etc. and is where the nickname originated.
On the present team: Bernanke's "creative" operations over the past year either coincided with or were independent of his late rate cuts and/or with now more recent large scale plans like with Paulson and the $700 billion bailout (actually $810B+)they got Congress to approve. Or even more recent like the Fed's $600 Billion MMIFF program several days ago regarding CD's and CP in order to prevent more plunges.
The current Working Group is now often casually mentioned on the Nightly News and you'll often see video of Bush, Ben, Hank the Hammer, and company in the cabinet room.
But, all their operations and all their money, so far, can't stop this market from unwinding, and at a quickening pace.
Today was the first limit down day we've had during this mess. We've still not had those other halt measures mentioned in your linked post on the NYSE. Thanks to the PPT. But, overall, by percentage, the drop over the last couple of weeks or month works out to be the steepest drop in history on a medium timeframe, a larger decline than any other "crash" including 1929. In the end, in some ways, it's more or less the same as if it came in one or two days. Some real damage has been done.
At this point, this market is going to go to about the same place it needs to go, regardless of the PPT. Granted, their larger reactionary measures will have some effect and help next year. But, their response is all coming late.
It's too bad that's how Washington works. Katrina and other examples are the same. Everyone knew for decades of the problem in New Orleans, nothing serious was done to address the real problems. After it hits, is when DC deals with it, with far more costs than anything preventative.
GL.
Yes! there sure is no evidence in the market
that they exist anymore! Or better, in this market none of their actions are providing any evidence for more than a day that they exist!
I'm glad it's the weekend.
Whoever gets elected on 11/4/08 is going to have to immediately assemble and start working with their own economic Working Group on this economy and their own economic plans and perhaps start working with Bush's team too so there is some semblance of a smooth transition in January. It's too important.
Have a good weekend.
Snookered...
corrected this morning.
The Plunge Protection Team can't do anything now. We are going to where we need to go.
GL.
Good close,
and volume up on the day. Got some dow stocks and misc others, but, am not holding msft or others into earnings. Not in this market.
Not the climatic selling I was searching for in certain names, but, still some ok flips.
First time in awhile I feel ok about holding something overnight as well, even though those are for flips too.
GL.
This market is back in a correction,
still in a downtrend. Our fledging rally from last week died with yesterday's selling.
But, still looking for climatic type moves and/or special cases like MSFT.
Tight stops are a must for getting in right here.
GL.
Hopin for some climatic moves...
down on some stocks at some point today. Gettin' ready to start buying.
Still a time for flipping, but, yesterday's move in MSFT under 21, buy. Would like to get some more, but, cautious on any names before earnings reports.
There are others like that, time to get the rest of the list ready with some entry points.
Everybody is talking today on Capital Hill, except Bernanke and Paulson. Don't expect much from anyone, but, maybe it can still help induce some selling.
Will be looking for a stronger rally later today than the one we got at the close yesterday.
GL.
>"Besides, pain is a temporary symptom. It either ends, or you die."
I like that, could be applied to trading too!
I feel for you. It's hard to remember pain, but, I can easily remember the nights sitting/sleeping on the couch, everything in your daily routine taking four times as long, trying to get in and out of the truck, and every little thing you don't think of until you can't move without pain! No pain meds here either. Just weeks of crap, as you say.
One suggestion - we have those little flat blue l.e.d. lights throughout the house in many outlets - no energy usage and you can see everything at night! :))
OT - ajtj, what do you have cracked ribs from?
I couldn't find any previous references.
Just curious, I had to sleep sitting up for a month when I had several cracked about 4 years ago.
Regards.
hahaha!
I listened to a little of his speech last night - eh.
Besides the testimony today from the rating agency ceo's, the other interesting lines deliverd are from Ted Stevens corruption trial that are in the news this morning.
Let's see what the jury thinks about it.
Another Fed action announced today - to narrow the spread on the interest rate paid on bank reserves. He's still having to react. Tony Crescenzi had a good article on it this morning.
Be interesting to see what Obama does in January, and where we are in all this by then. McCain's gamble on Palin has about totally backfired at this point - her last interview and the SNL rap are getting a lot of air time and will totally discredit her this next week. Along with Powell's speech on Sunday morning on Meet the Press, that's about it.
I've been watching ICE and CME and haven't even looked at NYX today. What's it at in this sea of red?
Gonna be an interesting close in the markets today!! Hopin for a rally or it's gonna get ugly. (uglier)
And then today the Federal Reserve announces
their new money market facility (MMIFF) today. With as much as up to $540 Billion of funding to purchase CD's and CP.
Question is: Visionary or reactionary? I say reactionary. There is a difference.
Bloomberg properly described it as "another emergency manuever" today.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081021a.htm
I continued to be a little Mmiffed by this Fed.
GL.
p.s. Paulson is down on the NYSE floor this a.m. with Neideraurer.
Good God, Bernanke, ...
I'm just shaking my head listening to some of his answers. He's a smart guy and he has many answers, but, he's just reiterating what I would call standard textbook answers. Good safe standard average technical statistical normal-times answers.
That's what is disturbing. The professor is well learned, but, it seems more and more from studying history, things, past events, not from participating. From reading books, reports, studies, data, etc, not from being out there working. From meetings and statements from his staff, not from people out across the country doing it.
He is still behind the curve because he is following the textbook, planning by the textbook, and still reacting somewhat as if he is living in textbook times, and real life is never text book. There are always nuances and unique situations and this period is certainly one of unique events, and textbook responses to questions this morning as well as ongoing textbook responses to markets are not what is needed.
Creativity and vision from someone knowledgable in the real world (what a cliche'!) is what is needed. Some call his operations "creative", but, many have been small measured unsure operations based on textbook, until he gets further behind, and then he has to react.
The market seems to agree once again as the selling picks up during his answers this morning on Capitol Hill.
None of his answers this morning were creative, none would put him ahead of the curve, none would be used to describe him as visionary, they were all standard and safe.
And that is the problem.
Good stuff ajtj
very interesting.
Thanks for posting and sharing these interesting stories, market commentary, and links you find, as well as the sources and sites you read.
Good job!
Yes, that seems the only way to navigate through this market right now.
GL.
Anderson Cooper put another photo
of this image up on his website and on his show. However, it was from a different news agency/photographer, and was taken about 1/60 sec after this one and wasn't quite as good as this one.
Did you see McCain on Letterman last night? Letterman was relentless before he came out on stage since McCain bailed on him a couple of weeks ago.
He asked him some tough questions, he did not get some great answers. Another not so good showing, I'm not sure why he went back to Dave's place.
Plumber must've left a bad taste in his
mouth, like this photo:
http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election-2008/mccain-goes-for-jugular-but-misses-20081016-52c9.html
Hey Metro,
Yes, I didn't get to watch all of it, but, he sure did. When Obama would talk and say anything that he didn't agree with McCain on, John would start blinking his eyes real quick, and tense up further. I'm surprised they didn't coach him more on all of the body language, etc.
Paulson is another one not good in front of the camera. I saw that one too, and yes I gave him about a D-. He's been painful to watch all year, but, yes he's putting in the efforts - let's see where it goes.
Things are budging slightly in the credit markets, but, the damage has already been done there too for next year. Any relief now will show up much later.
Goog will be interesting tonight.
GL.
Hey MetalFillBoy and hopefully everyone else...
I was just watching Fast Money (we're out in CA), we're on commercial break, but, Wayne Angell was just on (former Federal Reserve Governor) and gave his two items which must be done now. He was adamant.
I don't know if they put up transcripts of the show, but, if they do there's a short answer for you from a very credible source. Better if you saw it so you could hear the urgency in his voice.
He said the Fed has got to act now and take rates down so low that you make equities attractive. He said it doesn't matter if it's 1% or 1/2% or even 1/10%. I agree totally.
It was a great interview even though he was rushed and cut short on time. Hope you saw it.
I'll still try to add more tomorrow when I get time.
GL tomorrow.
Halloween comes before the election...
I'd like to see Obama dress up as Joe the Plumber
and McCain dress up as Joe Six-pack.
And let 'em work it out like real Joes do. That's a debate that everyone would watch!
And drink regardless, at every packed sports bar across the land!
MetalFillBoy, yes everything is much different now
versus when Greenspan cut rates to 1% and held it there. I'll try to write more when I have time later. But, besides the changes in different business cycles and other cycles, just think about the Billions for each gov't intervention since this started actually collapsing.
Speaking of billions, here is an email I just received that probably some of you are getting as well (I have not checked the numbers, but, at first glance it seems accurate):
The next time you hear a politician use the
word 'billion' in a casual manner, think about
whether you want the 'politicians' spending
YOUR tax money.
A billion is a difficult number to comprehend,
but one advertising agency did a good job of
putting that figure into some perspective in
one of its releases.
A. A billion seconds ago it was 1959.
B. A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.
C. A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.
D. A billion days ago no-one walked on the earth.
E. A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate our government is spending it.
While this thought is still fresh in our brain...
let's take a look at New Orleans ...
It's amazing what you can learn with some simple division.
Louisiana Senator,
Mary Landrieu (D)
is presently asking Congress for
250 BILLION DOLLARS
to rebuild New Orleans . Interesting number...
what does it mean?
A. Well... if you are one of the 484,674 residents of New Orleans
(every man, woman, and child)
you each get $516,528.
B. Or... if you have one of the 188,251 homes in
New Orleans , your home gets $1,329,787.
C. Or... if you are a family of four...
your family gets $2,066,012.
Washington , D.C
HELLO! >
Are all your calculators broken??
Accounts Receivable Tax
Building Permit Tax
CDL License Tax
Cigarette Tax
Corporate Income Tax
Dog License Tax
Federal Income Tax
Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA)
Fishing License Tax
Food License Tax
Fuel Permit Tax
Gasoline Tax
Hunting License Tax
Inheritance Tax
Inventory Tax
IRS Interest Charges (tax on top of tax)
IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax)
Liquor Tax
Luxury Tax
Marriage License Tax
Medicare Tax
Property Tax
Real Estate Tax
Service charge taxes
Social Security Tax
Road Usage Tax (Truckers)
Sales Taxes
Recreational Vehicle Tax
School Tax
State Income Tax
State Unemployment Tax (SUTA)
Telephone Federal Excise Tax
Telephone Federal Universal Service Fee Tax
Telephone Fe dermal, State and Local Surcharge Tax
Telephone Minimum Usage Surcharge Tax
Telephone Recurring and Non-recurring Charges Tax
Telephone State and Local Tax
Telephone Usage Charge Tax
Utility Tax
Vehicle License Registration Tax
Vehicle Sales Tax
Watercraft Registration Tax
Well Permit Tax
Workers Compensation Tax
STILL THINK THIS IS FUNNY?
Not one of these taxes existed 100 years ago...
and our nation was the most prosperous in the world.
We had absolutely no national debt...
We had the largest middle class in the world...
and Mom stayed home to raise the kids.
What happened?
Can you spell 'politicians!'
It would help in many ways...
if the Fed gets rates lower.
Study the WFC quarter, look at the net interest margin numbers. That's where it will help further strengthen Wells and all the banks.
Look at total consumer debt, much of which (ex mortgages) is based on the prime rate (which is based on the fed funds rate). Yes, a lot of debt including sub-prime, interest only, and ARM's are based on Libor which is causing problems (because it is high). Look at a chart of U.S. Prime rate versus Libor and you will see the recent break in the historic spread.
But, do a quick calc of 50 bp cut on the interest on that debt based on prime and you are still talking real money and real savings for consumer's debt payments. In this coming economy during the next year, a cut now will help later and have other positive ripple effects (the average consumer credit rate is dropping from last year but needs to come down more). This morning's poor economic numbers support this need - retail sales and PPI. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/Current/
The Fed used to watch things like the household debt service ratio and should want to keep it as low as possible so consumers have more money to spend on goods and services especially during a recession. If it stays high it also means more households are likely going into default. But, who knows what Bernanke is focusing on. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/
GM (and F) problems are a huge issue for this country right now that many people are not realizing. A cut would help on the consumer end as well as the smaller suppliers.
IMHO, inflation is not an issue regardless of what the Fed is pumping in now. It's coming deflation.
All these actions will have effects. They (the Fed) can correct later based on how the plethora of stimulus operations by the U.S. govt and other countries take effect in the coming quarters.
Even NASCAR needs help now per this article! "NASCAR Hits Wall as Financial Crisis Dents Sponsorships Demand".
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aAivN03d0_mk&refer=home
Even though the effects of another 50bp move would take time, a cut would help in many ways. We don't want anything close to anything resembling Iceland next year.
One Princeton professor gets
the Nobel Prize, Paul Krugman,
while the other Princeton professor, uncle Ben, will likely get another prize - the #1 spot on AC360's Ten Most Wanted Culprits of the Collapse.
Pre-market - another wild day shaping up in the markets.
OT - Hey Metro...
You know when I heard McCain use the ole' "Obama is already measuring the drapes" line today, he seems kinda washed up.
Good luck.
OT2 - Our skies are glowing orange again tonight from the nearby fire - autumns are strange out here when the Santa Ana's start blowing.
NYX well across $30...
and now the Nikkei is up 13% tonight as we await another Mr. Market's Wild Ride day tomorrow.
Good job picking late last week Metro!
I also like what Anderson Cooper is doing on AC360 - his "Culprits of the Collapse". His tag line - "Some people say this is not the time to point fingers. We disagree. This is exactly the time."
Good job Anderson on the Ten Most Wanted Culprits!
Can't wait to see who gets #1 Most Wanted.
That close was courtesy of Hank the Hammer
Paulson and whatever nickname his public hedge fund will be called in the weeks, months, and years in the future, as he followed the lead of the European leaders Sunday.
The dollar amounts are not confirmed yet, but, big. Unbelievable.
How do you buy up here? How do you fade this, knowing that his direct investment plan will likely finally change everything.
Unbelievable.
Glad I got a lot of Wells today and a little GS.
What a huge transfer of wealth the past two weeks. And he tried, tried to get what he wanted earlier - maybe he did want to eventually buy some of the illiquid mortgage related junk, but, maybe this was his plan all along and he couldn't lay out it because of the backlash from many sides.
Unbelievable.
Thanks Hank! No more Bernanke "creative" operations messing around, just do it. We'll all understand more as the books come out the next several years about these last several weeks.
GL.
It sure looks that way,
about his buffooness, but, to give Cramer credit, the reasons from the "Why I'm Negative Now" article he wrote changed with the latest news out of Europe from the Paris summit of 15 countries unifying around the euro and guaranteeing new bank debt through 2009 as well as permission to buy bank stakes.
People are expecting to hear how much the different countries are going to pledge to put up before European markets open, as well as other details.
There is one other article he wrote in between "Why I'm Negative Now" and his switch to "Why You Shouldn't Fade This Opening" that explains his change and that was "Europe Sets an Example". The important part of the in-between piece wasn't about Europe, it was actually about the issue of what the U.S. needs to do with our banks and with GM.
And we're getting more news on WFC and WB - Ok'd by the DOJ and Fed. Every little bit helps.
And how about those Chargers tonight as well as the Dodgers!
Life goes on!
Maybe, but who knows...
I find it incredible that Cramer and other people are considering the possibility. Those are pretty extreme targets on top of last week's plunge, but, there were also lots of expectations for something more concrete to come out of Friday's G-7 meeting, Saturday's G-20 meeting, followed by hope of something today from the special summit meeting in Paris. So far, all that's been presented are some generalized Action Plan items, but, nothing else specific.
If they do have some behind-the-scenes plans then more power to them at this point. That would be a better way to do it anyway. Maybe something is announced as soon as things turn down in order to get more impact.
Cramer seems to be outlining however, that without any announced plans or interventions how more forced selling may be triggered starting Monday.
One thing he didn't mention was that trading was halted last week at different times in Russia, Iceland, Romania, Italy, Austria, Ukraine, Peru, Indonesia.
Maybe that's the default scenario if things do go south, a coordinated global trading halt. Then everyone could finalize and implement their coordinated Action Plan items (and maybe Paulson can get more money for his direct investment plans - ha!).
Rereading this before I post it, this whole thread is off the deep end; we must be near a bottom!
GL.
I did some flipping into that strong rally
Friday afternoon, at this point am glad I did.
Will have to play it as it evolves this coming week while waiting to put some more bids in.
GL.
From the IMF and IMFC...
and their Plan of Action as agreed by the G-7. Their Plan of Action states that they will take decisive action to support systemically important financial institutions and prevent their failure.
That's their words, not mine.
It's like a game plan that says the game plan is to do whatever is necessary to win the game and not lose.
That's hardly a game plan and the IMFC Action Plan is not what I would call an action plan.
I doubt that they are going to be proactive by taking decisive behind-the-scenes actions - they don't have any. More likely the markets are going to go where they need to go, with or without interventions, and later dictate some of their actions along the way.
At first glance, their approach sounds a lot like the U.S. approach so far, they plan to react at the last minute as needed.
Here's the link, see item 2. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2008/pr08240.htm
Chairman Boutros-Ghali and other members speeches didn't offer any more detail nor did they offer anything when asked questions about specific concrete actions.
Good luck.
Postscript: the next regular meeting of the IMFC will be 4/25/09. No need to meet in two weeks, or perhaps plan a special meeting in a month during this crisis, but, next spring, over six months from now.