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A Market That Deserves Promotion...
That's the title of Cramer's piece this morning on Real Money.
Notwithstanding, it highlights components of the economy that deserve promotion too.
There are many things to still watch for and be cautious of (Rule #1 never changes - to preserve capital), but, I'm with Cramer here.
This outlook on the market does not change anything, especially changing or becoming lax with one's trading plan or other rules. Nor should it lead to predictions. But it should help justify this run, especially if it continues after the next pullback.
Will have to see how this market continues....
But, my last remnants of short positions in a homebuilder and also an ex-Dow component that had to do with a dying industry may have to be covered shortly.
I think both are still going down longer term, but, if this market keeps going, the odds in any short positions are currently not in favor.
Man, am I out of sync?
This market is causing a lot of frustration to a lot of people out there.
I was just scanning Real Money and the Rev is saying he is very defensively postured right now. I really like what the Rev writes and shares in all his posts and often find myself in sync with his outlooks, but, where he says right now he can't find opportunity in individual charts my stance is just the opposite right now. I'm seeing the charts of the few stocks I've been stalking for some time (tech and financial sectors) saying buy me now or add more.
So that's what I've been doing.
The Rally continues....
I won't rehash some good info in IBD today - and I am not affiliated with them in anyway - so if you haven't already, I'd recommend checking out The Big Picture online tonight as well as Tuesday's edition. Also, there is some good info on page B14 of Tuesday's edition.
I missed one breakout today and then missed getting filled on a couple of orders for a pullback. Typically during the past couple of years this would not be a concern, as most BO's from high pivot's retraced back below buy points within several weeks time. Things may be changing here - will have to monitor recent BO's closely, and maybe pay up in the next week or so on this one.
Also have started building two core long positions this past week and did a lot of work today on one during it's pullback. My own rules have prevented me from building these too quickly to their full weights, although it appears I should have with recent action. May have to modify some rules.
If you haven't already, another great read is John Carter's "Mastering the Trade". Regarding rules, he talks at length about having a trading plan/business plan. That's what I refer to above re: rules.
Have also begun thinning out some pilot buys and narrowing the focus on the remaining names.
I don't mind sharing names, but, I do think it's better for most people (including me) to spend the extra time and find their own list per their own style. That, and I don't know if anybody is checking here anyway - so maybe this is just a thought clarification exercise.
Have to watch the market closely here, and not predict, but just go with the trend. Those two distribution days on 9/6 and 9/7 will fall off the radar later next week - if we don't get anymore by then.
Needed Sentiment for a Bull Run...
A review of the latest sentiment among market commentators and it seems many participants are jittery, nervous, distrustful, and waiting for a major market pullback sometime this fall before they put any real money to work on some long positions.
Remembering back to last spring, we had a lingering bullish sentiment from the beginning of the year, when everyone was anticipating higher moves into all-time highs, and it lasted well into the summer following the correction. People now seem wary to even nibble at their favorite stocks - some of which are now on sale from prices seen 6 months ago, because they are waiting for retests of those summer lows.
In a bull market the sentiment is bearish. In a bear market the sentiment is bullish (for the majority of players).
Spring 2000, as everyone started talking about the stock market and the new economy everywhere you went during February and March 2000 - that was the time to be selling. Climatic tops were actually beginning to occur at the end of December of 1999. And as the market started the huge gyrations that spring the mantra on the street was "buy any pullbacks". That mood persisted for much of the year and into the next.
For now the trend is up and the rally intact and the sentiment I read and hear would suggest the market is pushed higher. Who's going to do all that selling into those ready and waiting buyers down below several levels. The only group I can think of are some badly damaged hedge funds that are forced to.
But, let's watch the action. If I had to guess, I would imagine some of the those buyers will be moving into the market later just when we reach higher levels where some of the first real sellers will come out.
What I don't like about GRMN...
I've added to a couple of positions today and a couple of more pilot buys.
While doing this I was looking a little more closely into the GPS field of players. The one thing that is in the back of my mind for Garmin is it's Cayman Islands corporate address.
I just think about Tyco. And then that leads to other thoughts.
This type of corporate offshore solution is partly another reason of doubt around MRVL; that and different stories of the company's founders - it just sounds of a different corporate culture than one found at Google or Starbucks. Longterm, I prefer the cultures expoused by these later two, as well as many other companies I admire. Although I admire the business that GRMN and MRVL do.
Doing some more DD and watching recent price/volume action to see which of these GPS plays to look to focus on when the time is right.
Nobody Trusts this market...
And haven't trusted it for some time, so it keeps going on it's run.
There seems to be much money on the sidelines right now. And many players are or have already scaled out recently around these levels.
Trading acumen would say we prepare to go lower here, but, look at some of the different market internals especially today.
Everyone is waiting and wanting a correction (a major seasonal/cycle plunge) to load up on. Everybody it seems. Hello?
One thing about this rally, there has been quiet buying action going on since the July low. The Nasdaq did not roll over, but worked very quietly, casting doubt along the entire re-building process since then.
With all of the program trading and hiding of larger orders, signs of real buying in the charts during periods like this are more subtle. Remember, you're not trading stocks, and you're no longer trading people in many cases now, you're trading computers, or more specifically programmed markets running on programs prepared by the best minds out there backed by almost unlimited resources. And you have programs trading against programmed-driven setups. And the programs and counter-programs are constantly tweaked for better performance and more efficient use of funds. And the programmers come from places like MIT, etc. and in some cases they are making more than their colleagues on the trading desks from what I hear. Profits are up on the trading desks, but, is it because of the trader's or the programmer's work? Things to consider.
Chart patterns of different kinds are more frequently negated and sidestepped or seem just overlooked - by these programs? And that may include the seasonal, four-year presidential cycle pattern. What about different TA patterns? No matter how much you learn about the markets, if you do not have funds to move a market or connected to entities that do, you are then at the total mercy of those who can move markets, and much of that money is being better managed by programs all the time and getting better every month. More to consider here.
Nobody trusts this market, well, except for maybe some programmers and their employers and also Cramer. Have you been listening to his calls for a little over the past week now? I just mention it, because I mentioned a defensive call of his several weeks ago (on Yahoo! Goog board), which has since changed.
There may be still good reason to not trust this market, especially during the next month, but, for now I have to keep proceeding with caution in this confirmed rally (talk about a wall of worry!).
Helloooooooo?
Anybody here?
Hmmm.
Here is the link for the market board:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=6828
I'll try to keep more stock specific info on this board, and the market info on that one.
Posted this general market note here:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=13388269
Interesting Market...
Since July for the Nasdaq. Since 7/21 low, the Nasdaq had been in really what could be termed a stealth rally. It never followed-through within the first 10 days from that low as one would expect, but, even with the distribution days it also never rolled over to new lows during that time. There were buyers down there quietly working. And then it finally followed-through on day 21.
The leaders and leading sectors of the August & early Sept rally have not altogether been what you would normally like in a new bull run, and some breakouts like TRMB etc. have not acted well. But there has been a slow rotation the last couple of weeks (again quietly going on).
But, now the transports are finally breaking their downtrend and the data behind the scenes for them is good for the coming months - another positive for this market.
And if you watched Larry Kudlow last Friday at the opening segment of his show "The Greatest Story Never Told", you would know all of the postive aspects of this economy that I also like right now.
So, now lets see if this rally is going to continue and cause more people pain who have been waiting for a major fall correction, or if it does correct shortly.
Don't try to predict anything, but, if you are still long like I am, try to anticipate what would cause the most participants pain at this point (to try to help protect your position profits). I have some ideas, and I'll try to share later.
Watch the new potential market leaders you should have already noted and made a list of. And watch some other big caps' action. If this rally is for real, the new leaders will start breaking out on strong volume (i.e. I'm watching ANEN and a couple of others today) and that volume is going to carry over into the indices. That has really not happened yet en masse, so another reason to remain extra cautious. But, maybe that's just more stealth action going on.
More stealth is seen when I look at some other big caps and how they have been acting lately (again buyers quietly working).
The nagging problem still for me is all of these new hedge funds - how badly were they damaged last summer? That's going to be a big factor for this market in the next month. And one that could help it turn ugly. I know I do not feel like a "strong" long holder in too many of my positions right here because of these nagging thoughts and some other indicators. These are mostly swing and/or pilot positions as I have not loaded up on anything yet because of the action this summer. I'm still waiting for proper buy points in my list of stocks I'm stalking.
The IBD Mutual Fund index is also something to follow and it is still below it's 200 dma also. More on this later also.
So for now, I'm proceeding, but with extra caution.
Started a small position today, more as a pilot buy.
The transports acting well, UNP, CSX, FDX, XPRSA, etc. A very good sign and a lot of what I'm focusing on for the moment besides a few other plays like GS, etc.
Maybe tech's time is about here...
Have to look at all of the sector action tonight.
A great book on the events at Ground Zero on 9/11.
Last Man Down, by Richard Picciotto.
One of many powerful stories from that day.
More on the 1993 World Trade Center bombing...
The FDNY was credited with fast response time and command decisions for getting firefighters w/ small hand lines down into the lower levels of the parking area /substructure and extinguishing all of the fires throughout the structure.
This ultimately led to saving the site from further damage by fire such as subsequent collapse of the structures around the blast crater. Consequently the remaining mechanical equipment serving the entire complex was also saved as well as less smoke damage into the superstructures and less hazards for all of the complex occupants during the evacuation.
More on the Man Who Predicted 9/11...
Rick Rescorla presumably stayed aware of the 1993 bombing investigations not only by the FBI, PA, ATF, NYPD, FDNY, FEMA but also by other outside engineering and other committees, such as the American Society of Civil Engineers, etc. as well as following the later trials.
Many strongly believed the 1993 bombing was intended to bring down the north tower with hopes that it would fall into the south tower. The explosion was also supposed to disperse a large cloud of cyanide gas in the area, killing more people, however, the flash fire from the blast also burnt the lethal gas thus making it ineffective.
Some of the people who concluded that the intent was to topple tower 1 into tower 2 included structural engineer, Leslie Robertson, of Worthingto, Skilling, Helle & Jackson, the original engineering consultant for the towers who also worked during the 1993 repair. In Yousef's trial, Secret Service agent Brian Parr also testified that Yousef himself told him of his plans on the flight back to the U.S. in 1995. U.S. District Judge Kevin Duffy also believed this as stated during the trial by the U.S. attorney(s).
I wish I had more reference material available today, but, I don't. I had my old computer hard drive crash and wasn't diligent with backing up some info like on the WTC.
Here are some links if you're interested in the first failed attempt to bring down the towers:
There is one report I refound on the web that shows the damage in a schematic diagram (see page 6). Basically, the epicenter of the blast was in the substructure just outside of the SE corner of the perimeter columns of the north tower, 1 WTC. Also look at the photographs in the Appendix A - of the unsupported columns in the 4-level high crater in the basement.
http://www.firetactics.com/wtc-93.pdf#search=%22world%20trade%20center%2C%201993%20bombing%2C%20engi...
The actual columns to tower one were reported basically undamaged as they were part of a massive steel grillage and heavily reinforced shear wall below the concourse level. But, part of the Vista Hotel almost came down in 1993 which could've led to further damage.
After 1993, with the PA finally addressing security concerns for the underground parking at the WTC (as Rescorla had pointed out to them when he started at Morgan Stanley), he then thought that the next probable mode of attack would be by air. This was maybe more credible as more info came out about Ramzi Yousef's previous plot to blow up eleven U.S. commercial aircraft over the Pacific as well as the bar where early plans were made. That info was obtained from information found on his computer.
http://www.fas.org/irp/world/iraq/956-tni.htm
http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1099927167821
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/correspondent/2978948.stm
Never Forget.
A Tribute to a 9/11 Hero
In Monday's edition of IBD, Rick Rescorla's life is highlighted on the Leader's and Success page (A3).
In case you haven't seen it already, there is also a 2005 TV documentary on Rick called "The Man Who Predicted 9/11". I imagine it will be playing on different cable stations this weekend; it is highly recommended.
Also check out this book if you haven't read it: Heart of A Soldier, by James B. Stewart.
http://www.amazon.com/Heart-Soldier-Story-Heroism-September/dp/0743240987
And just found this on the web, the last photo taken of Rick in the south tower on 9/11/01 shortly before it collapsed. http://www.medaloffreedom.com/RickRescorla1.htm
Hang or display at least one flag on Monday.
After a day like today, it may be a long while.
Have to see what else this market has in store right now - I'm growing more cautious again.
Longterm, I still like all of these related GPS plays, TRMB, SIRF, etc. but, really have to wait for better signals from this market. And then decide which issue is going to be the one to focus on.
I actually only had a small long position in one of the others and got out of most of it the last couple of days.
Thanks for the reply.
I don't spend too much time on the boards as well, but, will make a suggestion (over at Yahoo) of several boards at Investor's Hub. The moderator oversight is a great tool. I'm not going to allow any nonsense on my boards either.
Hey Phil (Bullrider)
I was just checking back and noticed you are the moderator!
You have a good board here, and you definitely stay on top of it.
Just wanted to let you know that there are some really experienced and helpful people with far more years than many people have, at least more than I have, over at Yahoo.
I think some of them trade Google positions and would enjoy it over here. Hope you don't mind that I'd like to suggest to people to come over here, as well as a couple of boards I just set up. It just may mean more moderating for awhile.
Welcome all.
Lets see if this develops into something worthwhile and more on the professional side.
I found there were some very experienced people posting occasionally on the Yahoo! boards. However, without the moderator feature, most of their boards were overrun with spam and other abuses and the quality posters were simply buried.
More thoughts later for this new board.
Good trading!
Good to have you here.
Hopefully enough people will eventually show up and contribute to make it a worthwhile place to visit.
May have to wait a while longer until this market and GRMN get through this seasonal period.
Yes.
Welcome all. I had to set up a couple of boards as the Yahoo! boards are basically turning into zoos. Garmin should be a storied stock once the markets get through this fall seasonal and cycle stuff.
Will let you know in the next day or two when I get a separate general market board set up as well.
.
I wouldn't expect anyone here to attempt to review any previous threads on Yahoo's GOOG message board - it appears to be a zoo somedays, although there are some knowledgable people presenting helpful views buried amongst everything else.
In any case, it seemed some retail and newer investors had growing concerns especially after some of the media stories regarding the "huge" slowdown in housing and stories of a possible recession. Here is one I relocated that came out shortly after the Commerce Dept report: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060901/construction_spending.html?.v=2
So, you will have to consider for yourself if any institutions and/or large funds that have the power to move a stock like GOOG have research departments and buyside analysts that look at data like all of the reports released last week which I was mentioning.
My post simply offered a different (hopefully more objective) view of the same numbers than what the views of the media presented which often seemed biased to me.
And more directly related to Google, if you briefly looked over their last 10-Q, you would have probably at least noticed their capital expenditures for the last six months (which mirrors the trend I mentioned in the last post) which came in slightly above their previously estimated $700M, if I remember correctly.
Look at the numbers...
Hey everyone, I have posting on the Yahoo! boards, but this seems much better over here. Copied this over from my earlier post this morning on yahoo: goog.
I was looking through numbers this morning, and the census bureau info confirms what I see going on out here in CA.
ISM indexes mostly as expected and indicated manufacturing economy grew for 39th consecutive month. The recent numbers also indicate a corresponding 4.5 increase in GDP based on past relationships.
Regarding the Commerce Department numbers: the headlines are "construction spending plummets" - but look at the numbers. The media points out that estimates on construction fell 1.2% from June to July, but fail to mention that it is a 5.1% increase from a year ago. The decline as everybody knows - comes from residential.
But look also at the Nonresidential numbers (yearly)- lodging +79%, office +29%, manufacturing +27%, commercial and healthcare +14%, , etc. ( I loosely refer to all of this as commercial). The GDP report on Wednesday also confirmed this (+22% for private nonresidential "structures" item).
Also, construction payroll #'s are +17,000 jobs (after five months of little change).
So if you want to worry over the housing slowdown, also try to remember the shift going on to commercial, manufacturing, industrial, as well as infrastructure, and heavy construction and what that means for a broader issue - jobs. Capital projects are an area that cash rich businesses will likely continue to be looking to spend for awhile (besides share buybacks, etc).
And if/when the administration starts getting more heat about Iraq, the pentagon will coincidentally at some point thereafter release news about favoring stable conditions and surprise - significant troop drawdowns.
After that, I'd imagine federal transportation, corps of engineers, and other spending will also greatly increase once congress is not funding so much on Iraq, thereby adding to the trend mentioned above.
More on the housing issues later.