Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Some of the real market leaders...
are moving this morning on good volume, that is except for GOOG.
Doing some buying on some stocks I've been stalking and waiting on for awhile. It's looking good for the Nasdaq, even though it is slightly red still. Just have to keep monitoring this action to see if it follows through.
GL.
Thanks for the tip...
eom.
One other thing I noticed...
Fishsurfer (and it sounds like you are doing well), I saw you made a good observation on the MRVL board about BRCM. I'll just refer to a Yahoo! finance page here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=BRCM
For anybody else, see the section on growth estimates: there is a lot of info there all the way out to 5 years. Compare this BRCM page to the listing say for MRVL, then check it for APKT (you're shooting in the dark on a new issue), and then for some current market leaders (and some of the absolutely huge positive percentages on these leaders). I'd recommend studying what Bill O'Neil writes about in some of his books regarding what you want to see in growth percentages.
And, regarding market leaders, personally, I still think this whole related communication networks convergence theme is a huge technology shift, and the big stuff happening right now is mostly behind the scenes. So, I like the big names in all of this, yet think there is long-term potential in some of the up and coming names as well (like APKT). Watch some related IPO's coming too this year.
And like many commentators have been reminiscing this past month - that years ago, all of the cool CES stuff was for the future. Now, like I mentioned previously what I saw the other weekend, most of this cool stuff is for sale, right now, including at the new HD home networking/entertainment section. We're at a key point of this very expansive new technology penetration into our society and the economy. We're at the part of the curve where rapid growth takes off for a large portion of the population to adopt much of this - into the mainstream. It is a revolution, and it's going on right now.
But, back to this one - I'm already in and am holding a little (I didn't sell enough of it as it popped and then came back once again to $18 / the 50ma), but, I'm waiting for a confirmation on the Nasdaq before doing much more buying in tech. I don't really like to specifically recommend anything especially on a board, because there are so many different time frames, trading styles and strategies, investing/trading objectives, other factors, etc. for different people reading (factors that would even affect how you interpret the growth estimates). But, bottom line - if I was not in, I'd personally wait and not buy.
The chart for APKT (what little there is) is broken for now, relative strength is very poor, and the street estimates are still negative for the year. Maybe that will change and maybe it won't, but, this is not a proper low-risk buy point even if it does go up from here. There are a lot of other stocks with many established quarters of accelerating earnings and that are performing great right now.
GL & GT.
Here's what else I'm still watching...
right now.
S&P 500 made new 6-year highs this past week, however, the Dow and the NYSE composite as well as the S&P Midcap 400 made all time highs, not to mention the transports ending up strong right at resistance. Partly why I like NYX too - is how well the NYSE composite continues to perform.
So what about the Nasdaq? We're still waiting.
You can study the sectors and see what's happening, but, you know what else I think - look at a historical chart of 1998. I believe had we had a fallout last year like the 1998 late-July through October LTCM-induced plunge (during the previous similar 4-yr cycle), we'd be into a stronger tech rally like what followed back then. However, with some of the other differences in the economy right now, we wait. We wait on the Fed to lower just a little (like they did in late '98 and '95) and other tech related things like Vista and all of the related industry upgrades finally going.
When we get the Nasdaq finally ramping and firing like what you see in that historical chart, I'd say jump in with the real leaders in tech (and telecom). But, right now, no one is sure if APKT is going to be a new leader or not during the next couple of years.
Since APKT is a new issue, this next conference call will have a lot riding on it. Basically, it will answer the question if their low forecast from the last call (one of the few wrenches in all this) was based on a real business scenario they saw (as well as things like the extra costs of being a public company which they mentioned), or, if they were just sandbagging a lot of it (with explanations like the extra costs of being a public company). If they start a pattern of under-promising and greatly over-delivering with this next call, that will do great things for this issue.
Having no history on them as a public listing is one of the added risks of owning a new issue. That's likely one cause of this selling pressure leading up to this week - that and that negative growth estimate.
So, let's see if they beat, and if so, by how much. Then you'll know the answer. Listen to the call to hear not only the "why" behind their numbers, but, to hear the "why" for their outlook and guidance - it's gonna have to be a great call to get this going again right now.
Good question...
We'll all find out this Wednesday.
Hey Tag,
Nice blog you set up. Good luck to you on GRMN.
I sold my remaining shares at the end of the year, and have not got back in yet. Had to sell my SIRF shares this morning into this strength.
Am going to ride my GOOG position into tonight, and then see what tomorrow brings and determine then how to re-position some funds, and how and when to get back into this GPS stuff (including possibly TRMB and some others).
I took a similar percentage loss on SNDK - and agree, it was time to move on; which it looks like it was.
GL & GT.
I'm sure there will be a recap...
of the webcast later today, along with the archive of the webcast. But, basically they didn't announce anything "new" that was already not known.
So, the beat goes on.
Will have to wait and see what they release (if anything new) in the next couple of months (maybe also possibly with China).
GL, and be careful out there.
Check out the webcast tomorrow...
morning from the NYSE. It starts live at 8:30 a.m. ET.
It could be interesting - to hear what the alliance will entail. It could be even more interesting in two years depending on what they (are expected to) announce.
GL & GT.
How about here Doctor?
Were you one of a "select few" using it already? Anybody else wait in line last night or this morning for it?
It would be interesting to hear what people think about it.
Anybody look through their...
Sunday paper ad inserts yesterday. The ones from Best Buy, Circuit City, etc.
The CompUSA ad was basically entirely devoted to Microsoft and Vista - every page in the whole catalog had MSFT on it and all of the new products that will have Vista - that, and of course big HDTV's ahead of the game.
Do you think Vista will be big? Will it be big for tech? Hmmmmmmm.
GL & GT.
That's pretty much what the IBD 100 is...
but, it's not list of stocks to just go out and buy. Take it as a good starting point - many many years ago, it first came out only once a year, then more frequently like twice a year, etc. Now with the list updated weekly, you can see how quickly some stocks fall in and out of favor.
The ranking is based on a weighted screen of different parameters - including some of their own propreitary parameters based on the William O'Neil & Co. database.
Hint: to get a better idea of what's important and how everything is weighted, get a subscription, and then download and study the xls file of the 100 list from the website for several weeks.
That's a great exercise to do, one that can improve your stock picking skills if you spend some time on it.
Out on the street yesterday...
main street that is, not wall street.
Was up visitng in our old stomping grounds in Orange County, and had to stop in our old Home Depot. Turns out they were remodeling a portion of the store - the lighting section and part of the electrical section were blocked off, and two new aisles were already open, with most of the shelves already stocked, and the rest of the displays set up and waiting to be stocked. The two new aisles were all set up for home networking - hdtv (and the equipment/stuff needed later for iptv), broadband/computers/networking, phone, cable, wireless security, centralized control and access of the home, appliances, computers, etc. from the internet. Most of what you need to do-it-yourself.
This was all stuff Bill Gates talked about two decades ago (and designed his Lake Washington home for), stuff that has been on display at CES a decade ago, and now is widely available in the mass retail market - first mainly at computer and custom home theater stores, then Best Buy, and now Home Depot.
Most of this stuff is hitting the early part of the adaption phase, the ramping part of the curve.
It's hitting critical mass.
And it's all good for this stock as well as some other related ones.
Oh, and one other observation from yesterday. Afterwards, stopped at our old Chipolte restaurant - mid afternoon. It should've been dead that time of day. Instead there was a long line wrapping around the inside of the dining area - at least twenty people long. And the people finally getting their orders at the front of the line were picking up large to-go bags, one after the other. The kitchen staff was working furiously, and everybody in line stayed there and waited patiently, to get their order - and people just kept coming in. Also, last Friday evening, it was packed - as always. Hmmmm, very interesting.
Another consideration about stocks...
in general. Just basic stuff like this Nuance situation this morning - sure they might have some new product, but, if the support is not there and/or other problems, you have to consider it.
As another example, this VPRT is running this morning, but, I am not participating. Again, it has a beautiful chart set up, and accelerating earnings, and I even picked up some pilot shares earlier in the week in anticipation of today, bought low 36.
However, I sold them all just under 38, after seeing all of the consumer complaints about them. That, and their Bermuda corporate address. I mentioned last fall I don't like this type of corporate offshore solution.
And who knows, maybe all the complaints are just from general public looking for free business cards and then getting charged too much for shipping - I didn't see other business customer complaints. However, I never tried out their higher-end services, and since I didn't, I'm not chasing the stock today because I don't intend to be an investor.
I put a bid in this morning after the open - just for a trade, it missed by $.05, so, it's on to other plays.
GL & GT.
A follow-up and poor grade...
for Nuance.
I tried opening the new software this morning, and got an error message. The user file I spent many hours creating (training the software) was now listed as incompatible or invalid.
So called tech support, no 800 number - so called on my cell, on hold for 9 minutes. Annoying phone menu and repeated instruction menus, loud music, almost hung up.
Finally someone answers, however, my product registration info was not in their database, so had to re-enter it by phone very first thing, including finding the serial number from the CDs.
Went through it with tech support and found another road block error message - that the user file we were trying to open cannot be accessed because it was created under another version of DNS9.
I remember seeing an automatic Nuance update launch actually this morning before the problems started.
So after 40 minutes on the phone, the solution: uninstall it and start over.
That includes the several hours of training I had already put in.
Overall grade for Nuance - their product and auto-updates, website, and support:
"F" (for failing to make it right)
Word of mouth may not help them.
Thanks guys...
regarding paid content.
I hope you keep posting mentions, info, recaps, and links of any good articles and info you find on NYX.
Good luck and good trading!
Thanks for the informative posts...
and sharing good articles. I know it's appreciated by others looking and this is sometimes common practice on a lot of other board sites, but, please try to limit the posting of paid content. Let's keep a good clean board here, regarding intellectual property/copyright.
I frequently mention good articles on RealMoney and IBD, because I think those are about the two best investing sites for your dollar (the Journal is great too). These are also mentioned partly to encourage others who aren't familiar, to subscribe to them, in order to get their full worth from them (not just particular articles). If effect, to try to help level the playing field at least a little bit.
You have to spend money to make money, especially in this field. And this is even more true I think for ongoing education (books, sites, classes, seminars, etc.).
IHub also requests users to respect the intellectual property of others in the Terms of Service. If you see something really good from any [$$] source, I hope you mention it and provide a recap and/or try doing a CliffsNotes job on it with some key quotes - if anybody remembers those.
Thanks guys.
A little more research...
is warranted for a company like this. What a great space they are in. And, yes, they are in a great position in this space - for now.
Yet, this is an important space for many applications in the future, so you have to think about competition right now.
Microsoft and IBM are investing heavily in speech recognition, and Vista has a new feature, Windows Speech Recognition, that sounds basically like a very similar product to Nuance's, however, it also lets you control the operating system. http://www.microsoft.com/windowsvista/features/foreveryone/speech.mspx
On that alone, I think some caution and patience is warranted, before buying shares of Nuance. And I think with Vista's release, this may be one reason why NUAN shares might be a little soft for a little while (aside from market action).
On the flip side, speech recognition software needs faassst processors in order to work seamlessly, and with the release of Vista, new dual core chips, and new machines, as well as faster networks, there will be more people ready for it later this year - ASR. Will have to see if people eventually end up using Microsoft or Nuance, and whether businesses (call centers, mobile, banking & medical apps, etc.) use Nuance, MSFT, Big Blue, or others like Phillip's SpeechMagic, etc.
That said, Nuance has had some key acquisitions, and seem to be heading in the right direction. I'd also however, look more into their business solutions, such as mobile applications - they need some wins here. Without these, I think it says speech products are not ready for these types of uses (due to background and other noise/different microphones), not quite yet. Maybe it's a little early still on uses like this.
Also, although their consumer products are available at certain retail locations, it's not like they command a lot of shelf space, in fact, only very little. And I just noticed, Cramer said triple sell on this one just last week and said no, no, no to speech recognition - but don't know why.
I'll be watching this close and doing more research. People who have used NaturallySpeaking like the product (I think word of mouth / internet will help). Nuance already has many partnering relationships. The weekly and monthly charts are setting up nice, and it already has good institutional support, and triple digit percent earnings acceleration. Whenever it crosses the $15 mark, it will have already started running, however, at that point it will show up on more screens that monitor larger issues trading over that level - thereby adding more interest.
May have to attend SpeechTEK West next month to see some related stuff.
GL & GT.
Okay Check this out!
I've been doing some other research and I decided to purchase the latest software from Nuance Communications. They make speech recognition software. In fact, I'm composing this message through my headset.
I'm still training the software, and there are still some errors and it definitely takes some time to set up and get it working properly, but it's pretty cool. Hopefully with more training time, there will be little to few errors.
Besides the dictation software, Dragon NaturallySpeaking also lets you work in Outlook and Internet Explorer. It's actually very easy to open up many windows for different applications and work between them all and surf the web with your voice.
Again, I've done pretty much this whole message including editing, by voice. Here are some links of some other sites that I found regarding this.
I also put a link in for Staples and Best Buy. However, Staples has an instant rebate and you can buy the home version software for only $40 right now. This is the package I bought and am using right now and I will probably upgrade to the preferred or professional package later.
I will mention more on the stock, chart, and recent action later.
Good luck and good trading.
http://www.nuance.com/talk/ Dragon NaturallySpeaking software. Good demonstration.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1213/p17s02-cogn.html
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/silverman/4395319.html
http://www.staples.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/StaplesSearch?keyword=dragon+naturally+speaking&....
http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp;jsessionid=4L4HJYYJMDQCHKC4D3NFAHQ?_dyncharset=ISO-8859-1&am....
http://www.law.com/jsp/legaltechnology/pubArticleLT.jsp?id=1165869433797 some other good stuff.
These are all good comments...
Good posts Metro.
The only thing I could add is to get some good investing books, like Bill O'Neils'. He has many good buy and sell rules oultined.
Then with some practice and discipline, when you start setting in place these rules and more importantly then begin following your rules, it takes the emotion out - and then you naturally perform better. Check out his chapter just on selling in How to Make Money in Stocks.
And check out this Monday's IBD - see page B20 for a recap of some sell rules.
And, one more note here; from the main breakout on 11/3/06, NYX ran from the previous day's close of $77.00 up to $108.96 on 11/22. That is a 42% gain in three weeks. He also outlines some special rules for moves like this - in that chapter and in the mentioned article.
Good luck.
Stephen's Bears & Balls...
from the Colbert Report. http://www.comedycentral.com/motherload/player.jhtml?ml_video=80831&ml_collection=&ml_gatewa...
A great little history piece at the end of this clip about Cingular / AT&T!
Stephen's wrap-up: "AT&T is the T1000 of corporations - no matter how many pieces you break it into, it always comes back together."
Do your DD on any of these picks!
GL today!
Just reading a little...
this afternoon. Here's one: "Video Emerges as Key to Cisco's Growth".
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070115/cisco_video.html?.v=3 also talks about JNPR, RBAK, ALU, CMCSA, etc.
It talks a little of the convergence that is going to start getting more press eventually. This article is good - points out some basic changes in the marketplace and in related network infrastructure products and business cycle.
A couple of mentions...
There is a good article in IBD on pg B20 on buying stocks at the 10-week moving average. I mention it because it help explains the powerful move NYX had off of this moving average on 1/5/07.
Also, in Tuesday's edition, NYX is listed #23 on the 100 list and put in a black border, so I checked the previous Monday's list, it was at #29 and also in a border (check out the paper for an explanation).
So, had to look back further, in the 1/2/07 edition, featured on B2, and listed at #41.
12/26/06 - listed at #30.
12/18/06 - #25.
12/11/06 - #26.
12/4/06- #23.
and it keeps showing up for many more weeks prior to this.
There are other watch lists to monitor more than the 100, as well as just price and volume action / charts. I got interested in NYX back in late Oct/early November (it's main breakouts were on 11/3/06 and 11/10 with a previous breakout on 9/22). But, the upmoves have been very powerful since. So, along with some other factors, it looks like a lot of continued buying interest.
And if you haven't already, I recommend getting a subscription to IBD and RealMoney, at the minimum. Why do I keep mentioning and referencing only these? Because they offer some of the best info on the market for your money. I subscribe to a lot of other newsletters, sites, and services, but, many just to keep a feel on the marketplace. However, if you are just beginning, you don't need or want information overload. Keep it simple - just work on your trading discipline & rules.
And get some of Bill O'Neil's books too, and Cramer's. Again some of the clearest info on trading stocks (and trading rules) for your money.
All for now.
Time to start thinking...
about T, if you haven't already.
Adding more long-dated calls recently to a little bit of stock I already had.
Yes, a slower moving mega-cap, but, they sure are getting well positioned in this all-things network related that I like so much.
All around the world.
Good article today in IBD...
on Micron and Apple. Also, look at the Weekly Review list, the types of companies in the top 20 of that list - more on this later.
GL & GT.
I was going to say...
great post, and then I saw it on RM. This is a good follow-up to Cramer's piece last week about Riding the Virtuous Cycle, and as it turns out, looks like another good call that's happening sooner rather than later.
Great post.
What about yesterday?
it finally did something different besides sitting there.
I've got some calls making some money.
Great article...
on the market's emotional state right now, posted by Cramer on RM this afternoon, titled "This Isn't Complacency but Raw Fear".
What does his piece tell you about this market?
It tells me (and I agree), along with other signs, it's just what this market needs.
I'm glad you got in...
Mel, and Metro too.
Also, check out the news that NYSE and TSE might be close to an "alliance", although Tokyo denies it.
Japan's finance minister was also on the floor visiting earlier this week.
Other rumors are circulating regarding other deals with LSE, the Deutsche Boerse, ASX, and the news on India's NSE stake the other day, along with the Euronext OK... Things are heating up.
I think this lawsuit...
only helps CSCO, in many ways, including a lot of free publicity for CSCO's iPhone technology and products thanks to AAPL.
Trademark protection / Intellectual Property is very important, not "silly" as Apple spokeswoman Natalie Kerris called Cisco's lawsuit.
AAPL's Kerris was also quoted: "We believe that Cisco's U.S. trademark registration is tenuous at best," she said. "Apple's the first company to use the iPhone name for a cell phone. And if Cisco wants to challenge us on it, we're very confident we will prevail."
I'm surprised CSCO isn't with L&W, or Knobe, etc (or other trademark specializing law firms out here in CA) but, Baker Botts in NY will earn a nice fee for this.
Here are some related links and very interesting opinions and commentary:
http://blogs.business2.com/beta/2007/01/cisco_sues_appl.html
http://blogs.cisco.com/news/2007/01/update_on_ciscos_iphone_tradem.html
http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/2007/corp_011007.html?sid=BAC-RelatedNews
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070111/23959_id.html?.v=1
http://www.salon.com/wire/ap/archive.html?wire=D8MJ5AV80.html
Been buying LVLT June
and Jan08 calls the last several days to add to my common.
However, volume really fell off across the Nasdaq after that initial good open; may have to wait awhile longer for this market to run.
GL & GT.
Let's see how we end up...
after the first 30 minutes this morning, and then at 10:30, but, the Nas is trying to breakout here.
Watching some key leading stocks that are poised to go right now.
Goog already going after that GS forecast upgrade.
Interesting article...
regarding brand names the other day, http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/08/news/companies/brands_winnerslosers/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote
So, I'm thinking if the stock market takes off this year, which will turn out to be the bigger household brand name - NYSE or Nasdaq?
It should be a rally centered around tech and a lot of those Nasdaq names, but, NYSE has a lot of exciting developments (and some names) right now too.
Offhand, I'd almost have to guess NYX with all of the changes happening and with it's history. But, I wouldn't put any money on that bet either.
Just musing this morning.
That AP story yesterday...
was interesting and important news in my opinion. Not just for LVLT, but for all plays IP network related.
The government has had different issues with public & business critical communications switching from PSTN's and cell to a converging IP based network, alot around security and monitoring traffic (eavesdropping/surveillance). Now they will be a bigger part of the transformation (maybe also partly because of their concerns), including the departments of Treasury, Defense, Homeland Security, Energy, etc.
Also, a lot of interesting (IP & LVLT) related articles the past couple of days, especially surrounding CES and the AAPL release yesterday (copied some links from the IH AAPL board since they are posting a lot of info there), here's a few:
http://www.channelweb.com/sections/allnews/article.jhtml?articleId=196802398 csco
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,128474-c,tradeshows/article.html aapl iphone
http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/09/live-from-macworld-2007-steve-jobs-keynote/ macworld
Lots of cross-currents too yesterday and today in the market surrounding AAPL.
GL & GT.
And buying it back as...
it closes that gap.
Watching the market however, it's still soft, so, going slow.
GL & GT.
Actually, I started trading this...
back in 1999 and 2000. That and DITC I remember, as they both IPO'd in June '99 and both screamed higher that year - two of many growth stocks back then.
I had visited the Exodus Communications data center in LA (they later opened another closer to me in Irvine) and saw the F5 boxes, and talked to the F5 guys at Internet World in LA (which was big back then), CES, etc. over the years. Maybe write more on EXDS some other time.
I still have a hard plastic F5 red ball (like a desk or shelf ornament), F5 pen, etc. that I got from those shows.
I sold my last shares from that period as everything was coming down the next spring; I remember getting out around $90. Must have been March as the markets started to collapse.
I've been trading it again since 2003, and now we're almost back to where I left off seven years ago.
Here's a link for you...
from one of my favorite news commentators, Joe Scarborough, on MSNBC. An ex-congressman from Florida, he also adds a lot of good insight on a lot of issues in Washington.
No matter which political party you are in, your outlook and views on other issues in society, Joe really tackles and talks about a lot of issues and usually has a common sense, open minded, and down the middle-of-road view that many people seem to have.
This is from last week, http://video.msn.com/v/us/msnbc.htm?g=9c853934-3cb2-4e40-a986-f71b6d9c7e79&f=00&fg=email
If you haven't watched him before, this segment may seem a little heated, and it is compared to what he usually does. But, if you have watched him, you have to see the very end of this clip, and his commentary at the end of this segment.
I've been watching more news I want to see on the web all the time.
I'm starting to really warm up...
to this market again.
The Nas is the first to turn green again this morning and a bunch of leading stocks are showing some interest again.
Let's look for some real strength to show shortly (volume).
GL & GT.
Yep,
I was looking through my IE history, because I found a couple of new really great sites offering more VoD, and other TV and misc content. Sorry, but I can't find it again and I didn't save a link.
While doing a new search on Google just now, I found this - http://www.itvdictionary.com/iptv.html FYI on terms.
But, back to content, I've been finding some fascinating and otherwise great videos lately on the web, I'll share some links later when I have some time. Basically, it's already begun - just need to raise the quality and get more content online (addressing more copyright issues, distribution, etc.)
GL & GT.
Still nobody here...
that's too bad.
It's heating up here...
but, let's first see what this market is going to do, the indices are still red this morning.
Good Luck and Good Trading.