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Say what?
Oh Yea of little faith!
Ted,
Just a few questions about this post of yours.
!) The only comments I have ever heard Dr Lebby say about yields coming back from the foundries described them as "excellent". Granted that was a number of presentations ago. Are you trying to create FUD by stating, "for all we know the wafers could have terrible yields!
2) I have heard of single lane, PAM 4, 4x25, 4x50, 4x200 and 8x100. I don't understand your suggestion that multi-channel might mean there is something between single lane and four lane? You could very well be right that the industry is working on a two or three lane PIC. Until your post, I was sure that "multi-channel" meant 4 lanes or 8 lanes.
3) I am a little confused as to why you didn't refer to the guidance given at the May 2023 ASM. Lebby only referred to 800G and 1600G product sales in 2024. I can't imagine they are working on anything else. The unknown is how far along are they as of March 24, 2024. I also find it hard to believe that the product demonstration at the May 2024 ASM would be anything other than the 4x200 PIC. In my opinion, trying to suggest the demo will not be on the 4x200 PIC is simply an attempt to spread FUD.
You have made your hopes and dreams known to all on this board. Your hope is that OFC will come and go without any announcements and that you will be able to load up on shares at a much lower price. Excuse me if I don't say good luck with that.
You portend to have inside knowledge with every one of your posts. But, you never are correct when talking about current events.
You are the scam! I know it and so do several others here.
You will be humiliated within a few days and disappear. That is the scam because everyone on this board hides behind a fake name.
Keep listening to yourself.
Shhh! Don’t tell Pumpkin.
That is the most intellectual post you have ever made!
Sorry, I should have been more specific. Lots of due diligence is kept off of ihub for obvious reasons.
They have reported it, just not on social media!
Did you short some more today?
The correct description is “peer reviewed” world record performance.
You have no facts about the company’s 4x200 PIC except that multiple foundries are capable of producing it on 200mm wafers including application of Perk and poling. You doubted that until proven wrong.
Nobody has any facts about the marketing progress of LW’s 800g PIC. Lebby has stated they are in deep negotiations with Tier 1s as well as smaller companies and startups. I will speculate that the smaller companies will beat the Tier 1s to the market and that you will love to post about that.
Hey Luther! Will you be at the ASM again this year?
X, what do you suppose all those newly hired advanced degree employees do each day at work? I don’t think Marcelli would let them play chess all day.
Every trade includes a buyer and a seller who have opposing views.
The technology is real, but it is very disruptive. Yes, it can be added to the existing technology to improve it, but that really isn’t the goal. There are companies that do not want this polymer technology to replace their business. Perhaps we should alert Merrick Garland to the issue!
Wasn’t Kevin Bacon the one who said, “thank you sir, may I have another?”
If the commercialization ramp begins late this year, there most likely will be no reason to ever sell other than to enjoy life. If nothing happens by late this year, then I would conclude the majors have been successful in squashing this disruptive technology.
Dan, it is taking longer than expected, but it is happening. Hang in there! When I started buying in May 2021, I was focused on a big payoff in 2026 and I still think that.
Yes, it has taken much longer than expected. That is the source of great frustration for sure. However, there is no evidence of any showstopper news. All of the potential flaws brought up by Pumpkin and many many others have been solved.
It is my suspicion that the continuous request for more reliability data is a stall tactic by the tier 1 purchasing teams. Back in the day there was an industry saying, “nobody ever got fired buying from IBM.” In that same cautionary spirit, today’s purchasing teams need to evaluate the newest product offerings from all suppliers of 800g. They need to evaluate the spec sheets and prototypes before they place an order.
The ASM meeting PR was strategic, in my opinion. It was a way of telling shareholders they have a PIC to demonstrate. The details will be announced as soon as it fits the strategy. Prototypes of this PIC have been in test mode with potential customers for some time now.
The due diligence being conducted by the major players today is all about high volume supply. It doesn’t matter which sales prong gets the order. “They” are interested in tens of millions of transceivers to retrofit their data centers.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought the dark pool volume was limited to institutions trading stock amongst themselves with the net change being settled with the market makers at the closing trade. Dark pool volume averages about 45% of the total so institutions are trading this stock quite a bit.
What do you think tier one means?
Don’t know what gave you that impression? All of my information comes from the company and the industry publications. Like everyone else, I learn more from the industry than I do from the company that is still deep in stealth mode.
Yes! That was the strike price and date for the fat finger boo-boo!
Your June $6 calls could work out very well. The stock went over $9 after the first deal until Marcelli dumped a bunch of shelf shares on those institutional buyers. The next deal(s) is supposed to be with a bigger name and could drive the price even higher. Good luck with those calls.
I do own 370 Jan ‘25 2.50 calls, which is rare for me. I much prefer to sell puts. However, I believe Lebby is going to land some major commercial deals in the next few months so the timing should work out. I plan on exercising my calls and picking up another 37,000 on Jan 17, 2025 regardless of the price of the stock.
Polariton issues a lot of PRs especially as we approach OFC. Their web site lists various product offerings.
Under Description, it says:
By choosing Polariton, you buy into the most advanced technology platform based on organic non- linear materials that will boost your application to the next level. The product name is: MZM-P110-2024 110 GHz Plasmonic MZM Module
BTW this is not new info. People have posted about this product on this board not long ago. There was some speculation that Polariton’s customer is Nokia.
Polariton has a booth at OFC
lol. I saw you bought them for $.35. I sold 250 of those puts a while back at $.43 average.
Last year the ASM date was announced on April 3rd. This year it was announced 16 days earlier and included a tour of the expanded facility and a product demonstration. No details about the product being demonstrated were included because there has not been a product announcement. I find all of this curious as today’s PR came just ahead of OFC instead of in early April. Coincidence or strategically planned?
Either way, I like the timing.
The Hilton Resort is sold out. The Homewood Suites is next door and is way cheaper. Direct number is 303-706-0102 or you can call the main Hilton Honors number.
Act quickly! Expecting a record attendance this year.
I think it will be a finished transceiver with Perkinamine series 6 inside.
The specific device to be demonstrated was not identified in today’s PR. There will be a product announcement at some point prior to the ASM. Hopefully, it will be next week at OFC.
The company has announced their 4x200 PIC will be ready in 2024 and they have included a slide showing what it looks like in the last several versions of their presentations. It really doesn’t make any sense to demonstrate a lesser PIC.
I’ll buy my ticket today!
It appears to me that ALL of the naysayers and critics posting on this board are actually stockholders frustrated to the hilt. I get that as everyone is frustrated by how long it has taken to be ready for mass commercialization.
I hope all the complaining is out of frustration because the highest probability is that the ten or so disgruntled stockholders that post many times everyday will sell as soon as they get into the black.
If the company can sign just one deal with a tier one, the potential revenue would value the stock at least at $50. My advice is to never sell more than 10% per calendar quarter.
I just watched “Oppenheimer” yesterday. That was a science experiment that became a commercial success (at least at the power generation application).
Every claim you have made against the success of Lightwave Logic’s technology has turned out to be wrong. You have one or two chances left to redeem yourself, but your track record remains at zero until you are right about something. Timing is not being right. As with The Manhattan Project, money made things happen.
How ‘bout those 200mm wafers being produced at multiple foundries including applying Perk and poling.
Batting zero again!
#pumpkin is the scam
The infrastructure is in place today AND IT IS FULLY DEPRECATED. I got that from the article and I understand what that means in terms of ROI. The foundries want photonics to run on their fully depreciated capital equipment.
The value proposition is so great that everyone in the ecosystem will benefit. Having said that, there are incumbent suppliers who will incorporate Perkinamine or suffer the consequences. Lebby had a quote for that scenario.
That is how a fundamental technology becomes ubiquitous.
Thanks for that article, KCCO!
Ted, InP foundries only use 3” and 4” wafers. Smart Photonics is the prime example. The 10-k wording is correct. It includes working with InP on 4” wafers up to 8” wafers at the larger foundries. I don’t understand your confusion over this. I do know you love to beat dead horses!
I guess Pumpkin is still batting 1%
I’ll tell you a story about a real grifter! My brother in law has never had a job in 35 years. My sister is a college professor and has worked her ass off and raised some great kids. They even think he is a grifter!
No it would have been included
I got put 300 shares at $5 last night. The rest 8,200 shares will be put to me today. The discounted net price of $3.88 is a big discount, but the timing should be very good. Plan to hold all my shares for as long as the company remains independent.