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Happy birthday
Exactly
But are you confident enough to short more?
The next deal is likely to be with a foundry. Not sure which one and there are several that are intimately familiar with Lightwave’s PIC designs and Perkinamine. Which one made the components pictured in the slides? More than one? Likely.
I just can’t bring myself to take him off ignore. I know what he is saying anyway. He is going to continue to question the foundry’s ability to scale in volume. Once again, Lebby addresses that issue today.
Purchasing teams who are charged with deciding what equipment should go into their data centers will not be able to ignore testing LW’s technology. They don’t have an ignore button!
Can you afford to do without this technology? That is a career decision!
I will let Lebby do the talking. Forwarding the YouTube video is all that is necessary. People can make their own decisions and it is best to have a stockholder base that thinks long term.
Clearly the licensing agreements are close, but it’s the minor details that seem to be the cause of the lengthy negotiations.
Lebby is an eye witness in these negotiations and he has never been more confident in the future. I believe him. I understand there are a few frequent posters who clearly don’t believe him. Thanks okay by me because someone has to supply the shares to buy.
I see no reason to change my long term price forecast of $300 per share. A buyout within a year is the biggest risk, in my opinion.
That is why I have him on ignore! He doesn’t waste any of my time unless he replies to a message. He is having a hard time trying to devalue the importance of the new job postings.
Ted, I thought about taking you off ignore for a while. But I decided against it because you add no value and are so fargin obnoxious!
I see Ted responded to a post by KCCO so I saw it. As Ted has said many times, it is not what Lebby says, it is what he doesn’t say that provides the truth.
Lebby is hiring people to handle day to day transactions in their expanded space - Senior Accountant, Senior Purchasing agent, etc. What Lebby DIDN’T say (and this is the most important bit of information according to Ted) is that he is hiring these transactional people just ahead of needing them.
Just checked to see if any posters wanted to clarify their thought process as to why they are bearish on Lightwave Logic.
Specifically, do you think the addition of lab space, Phd level engineers, senior accountants, and a Senior purchasing agent are a diabolical plot by Dr Dr Michael Lebby to maintain a paycheck/bonus at the expense of low information retail investors? Is this a scam? Who thinks so?
1) Pumpkin
2) Ted
3) ?
Which is worse, selling at the bottom or never buying because you think it is going lower? Both can always reconsider after the deals start to roll in. After all, the first analyst to initiate coverage will likely do so when the stock is above $10.
Is there any way we could get a list of posters on this message board who believe Dr Lebby is hiring engineers, accountants, purchasing agents simply to fool investors into thinking commercial activity is forthcoming? In other words, who thinks these new employees will come to work and sit around all day because Lightwave Logic will not have anything to sell next year or if ever?
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Come on, don’t be shy! You never have been shy so why start now.
The $50,000 is non refundable! If they make their products with Perkinamine and cannot sell them, then they would still be required to pay the minimum royalty at the end of each contract year. If they can sell their products, then LW will receive a royalty above the minimum.
This is the contract language in the 10Q.
The $50,000 fee was booked as revenue upon shipment of Perkinamine to the licensee in October. The licensee will then coat their photonic chips and sell them. We will receive a royalty from the sale of the licensee’s product sales. I don’t know how to make it any clearer to you. Lightwave Logic is NO LONGER a pre revenue company.
Eh em! The company booked $50,000 in revenue in the month of October. It is 100% incorrect to claim no revenue!
I sent it to him. I don’t know if he changed it in Dropbox.
How about Nokia? Isn’t that the better guess?
All we know about that first licensee is that they have received a jar of Perkinamine in October. That unnamed company is licensed to use the Perkinamine to manufacture polymer based photonic devices. The projected unit sales from that agreement are 7,000 of the 800g PICs and 900 of the 1.6T PICs.
This first licensee is clearly a small company, but is expected to grow rapidly to over 3,000,000 PICs in 2030. There are going to be a lot of winners in this space riding Lightwave’s coattails!
Oh there is a lot of competition, just not from other EO polymers. The incumbent transceiver suppliers are large companies and do not want Lightwave Logic to make their products obsolete. They will do whatever they can to protect their business and that will include pricing. I have often wondered if we are misjudging the naysayers on this board. Are they short sellers or working for short sellers? Perhaps they are working for the incumbent suppliers in an effort to undermine Lightwave’s product introductions.
Dan, my EPS forecast calls for selling prices to decrease every year by 10% as volumes ramp. To get price increases, new features need to be added.
Thanks Pro_V, this is the type of information I used to speculate that LW’s royalty income from an 800g transceiver would be $1,000 and the 1600g would be $1,500. Actually, it was me who asked the question at the 2022 ASM about what portion of the transceiver’s cost is represented by the modulators. Lebby’s answer was up to 80% depending on the overall value proposition.
Lightwave’s value proposition includes data transmission speeds of 800g (like all of the other 800g products being developed) but with only .6 volts to power the modulation. In the WSTR interview, Lebby states that the driver chip required by the competing products costs more than 50% of the transceiver. Since Perkinamine eliminates the need for a driver chip, Lightwave’s transceivers Could be sold for 50% less than the competition. However, that would be stupid to give away all of that value for free. For this reason, my EPS projections for gross margin is 85%.
Frankly, I am a bit conflicted on the 1/30th the space taken up in the pluggable transceivers. Because LW’s slot modulators are so small, there is a lot of room left for designers to add other features in the final packaged transceiver. To me, this means that the modulators would no longer be 80% of the BOM, but that percentage could drop to 50% of a more expensive full featured pluggable transceiver. More on that in a year or so!
2023 years ago, a cult began and look how that turned out.
Proto, if you listen closely to what Lebby said at the ASM, the unit sales projections are based on their “Current Resources”. In other words, this is the expectation of the first and only licensee. As additional foundries sign agreements, those resources increase.
Global Foundries makes a million chips per day. They are the largest foundry focusing on photonics. There is ample capacity amongst the foundries Lightwave has been porting their production processes into.
X, that is not the most recent one. I’ll send the new one to you in a few minutes
X, that is the first iteration. It was updated on November 11th.
My post referenced Ted’s post #152988. I took a screenshot of the post for use in the coming years.
Sadly, you are correct.
The risk/reward ratio is easy to calculate for those investors who are long as well as those who are short. What is not possible to calculate is the return on one’s time spent while trying to decide whether or not to invest.
The most frequent poster on this board is Ted. He has made the statement that he thinks LW is worth a large investment if the stock can be purchased below $1.00 and even closer to $.50. Because LW has been very active discussing licensing agreements with companies ranging from innovative startups to multinational corporations, a game changing event could happen at any time.
If Ted is not comfortable buying LW unless it is below $1.00, then he will find it impossible to pull the trigger with a large investment after the stock pops to the high single digits after a big deal is announced. What is the risk of spending 18+ months trying to justify purchasing LW and never making a decision. The mental pain of watching the stock go to $300 and not owning any after such a large investment of time would be excruciating.
Ted is not alone. Many people suffer from the inability to make a decision.
They need to sell out. They have a great product that isn’t selling. Why? Because customers fear they won’t survive.
Jeunke, the 7,000 unit sales forecast was released at the May ASM, then a few months later the AI frenzy started. Lebby may have to revise his sales forecast for the 4x200 PIC that will be ready in 2024.
X, I think the real unknown about a short squeeze is at what price will the current stockholders start selling. There are many frustrated owners that will be the first group to sell. Frustration leads to poor decisions.
Lightwave Logic has been called a battleground stock where neither the bulls nor the bears are winning. Neither side has a clear understanding of the progress being made during this lengthy quiet period. It won’t be long now before Lightwave and their foundry partners will be able to produce 800g PICs for testing in the data centers. Testing has been going on now for a few years, but I don’t believe the tests mirror the actual data center performance. Once the expected new world records are achieved in the data centers, the multimillion unit orders will be placed.
The next move above $10 will happen as a result of quantifiable information. In my opinion, if the stock goes above $10, then there will be enough validating information for the technology to eventually be worth $30 billion. The question will be how much should I give to the shorts at $10, at $20, at $50 knowing that the unit sales growth will take the stock price to $300?
Replacing all of the transceivers in ONE large data center is over a million units. Then that data center becomes the standard for which all other data centers aspire. That’s the goal here!
My Social Security statement says 1970 was my first earnings year. It was less than $600
I must be a year or so younger than you as my first job paid $1.65/hour.
Lurker, I said that I do not think there has been a partnership agreement directly with an end user such as Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, etc.
However, it is FACT that Marcelli is a close friend with Tim Cook, CEO of Apple. When I say close friend I mean Tim Cook has had Jim and his wife visit at his personal residence. Also, Marcelli is a longtime friend with the guy in charge of Meta’s data centers. I don’t know his name though.
I do believe that some end users have asked their foundry and packaging suppliers to work with Lightwave Logic. Yes! This end user PULL has been mentioned by Dr Lebby a number of times. Do I believe that qualifies as a partnership between LW and an end user. I think that is a stretch of the definition, but I certainly could be wrong about that.
I am fine with your definition of deal and partnering. I think there has been a whole lot of partnering going on over the last several years with foundries and packaging companies. I do not think there have been any partnerships developed with end users, however I could be wrong about that.
If you equate a deal to ONLY a licensing agreement, then you are correct. Others have a much broader definition of the word “deal”. That would include agreeing to work with each foundry or packaging partner.
Thanks! I don’t see this speaker divulging anything about PDKs involving Perkinamine. That is unless there is a joint press release prior to the 29th.
Frankly, every speaker’s presentations are saying the same things. Everyone knows the pain points. The industry is not interested in small incremental improvements in speed, bandwidth, lower power, etc. The jump to 800Gbs and 1600gbs solutions is the minimum qualification for the next generation transceiver replacement cycle that begins in the 2nd half 2024. Lightwave Logic’s initial guidance was 7,000 800g transceivers and 900 1600g transceivers in 2024. That seems very doable to me. The first shipment of Perkinamine was last month to our single licensee. Remember John Zyskind telling KCCO that 3 ounces of Perkinamine can make 10,000 PICs.
I can’t find any source for the November 29th Fotonix discussion. I guess having a few on ignore has its drawbacks, but still worth it.
Can someone post evidence of this Fotonix event on the 29th?
I forgot to add that in order to sell naked puts, you have to also have a margin account which means your broker can lend out your shares to short sellers if there is any demand.