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Check Fintel
I just looked at my spreadsheet and Vanguard reported owning 8.122,225 on 9/30/23 as well as their 12/18/23 filing. We will have to wait to see any changes as of 12/29/23 until Feb 15, 2024.
Looking at level 2, there were about 10,000 on the offer side at $5.31 and $5.32. They were gobbled up right away.
Poor choice of words on my part. The company has a terrific culture and is a great place to work. They are going to get very rich.
That is a very good question and one that has bothered me. However, he seems happy with the organization chart. He came out of retirement to teach foundries the unique patented procedures developed by the scientists at LW. I am sure he gets awarded stock options, but isn’t required to file a Form 4.
Tomorrow is the last practical Tuesday of the year.
Stock based compensation is what caused the GAAP vs non GAAP reporting requirements.
Very reasonable and also reasonable to assume LW donated Perk as a R&D expense. After all, if the speedometer red lines at 120, you can’t prove you are really going 180.
There has never been any recorded revenue from this successful collaboration.
Does SilOrix have their own foundry?
If I am long 1,000,000 shares at my account at Schwab and short 1,000,000 shares at RBC, I can’t lose money on the stock fluctuations, however if the cost to borrow is .25% on a $5,000,000 loan, if will lose $34.25 per day. What a brilliant strategy!
I disagree Nrdc,
Lebby will advertise their 4x200 PIC chip when they are ready to ship prototypes for testing. Until they have their own product to sell direct (sales prong #3), they have no control over the marketing decisions of their licensees.
Maybe it was the new December presentation
We want new buyers to get their shares from short sellers. If the total short interest increases as the price moves higher, and then big news hits, we have a squeeze.
This volume is very strange. Huge block followed by 100 share trades. Is this related to the Roth event in Park City? Only thing I can think of. No option volume
I already tried that. As expected they could not comment on it even though I prefaced by saying everything in the projections was derived from my interpretation of comments made by you and Jim over the last two years.
Someone posted a few days ago that the web site had an updated December Investor Presentation. I remembered to look this morning! Nothing new, but the look and feel is much improved and is perhaps a little easier to understand. Anyway, I like it.
Actually I believe Fred Leonberger is exercising some warrants today the expire 12/31/23. This might have happened yesterday though.
The thing to watch is how many shares does Marcelli put to Roth from the shelf. He issued very few new shares in Q3 and with the price at the low end of the range, I suspect he held off in Q4 as well. With so much getting ready to happen, Marcelli is doing the right thing by waiting until after the news events and subsequent stock price rally to tap the shelf. When the 800g PIC is ready to ramp, LW will need cash to pay the foundries for their front end work.
PP, I would agree there are too many time frames and sometimes it gets confusing. The calendar year is the period used to determine the variable compensation of the executive officer’s bonus program. Then there is the time period between the ASM that has been used to discuss accomplishments with the stockholders. Most recently, there is the first licensing agreement that has four one year periods in which minimum royalties are due at the end of each year. Is that a June through May year? A minor detail since it falls well within the 2nd quarter. But at least we are talking about revenue nowadays!
https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_95707/conference_home.html
In the past, these one on one meetings with analysts have not resulted in any immediate buying of the stock. No doubt the analysts will be pressing Lebby for more insight into his statements made in the corporate update letter. Lebby set the expectation for new milestones as well as signed licensing agreements over the coming weeks.
It is possible that analysts will gain a greater sense of urgency from this week’s meetings in Park City. The stock isn’t likely to get significantly cheaper than it is today.
Yes! That must be their thinking. There really isn’t any other explanation as to why they would assume the risk/reward ratio shorting at today’s pricing.
I was pointing to this last sentence, although I like that one too!
“At no time in history have I been more confident of Lightwave Logic's potential, and I look forward to sharing exciting new milestones during the balance of this year and in the next year to come.”
So what “exciting new milestones during the balance of this year” (that is not dependent on negotiation details) are possible? Is a milestone defined as another licensing deal? Not in my book!
What are some examples of potential milestones as opposed to the closing of licensing agreements that could be coming by the end of the year? There is some interesting discussion offline about the last sentence of the corporate update.
Is that your wish?
Oh sheeet. I sounded exactly like Ted and all the naysayers!
He hoped to have it done by year end. I embellished and gave him an extra month.
There is the theory that the big institutions believe the optics of a huge short position will keep investors from buying into the story. I do not believe this theory that there are institutions that are both long and short the same number of shares simply to create negative optics.
Short sellers are vicious. They short stocks with low floats and long timelines and then drive the price down hoping to cause capitulation selling by retail and institutional ownership! Yes, institutional investors can panic sell also.
The playbook is not working with LWLG. As Proto and others have observed buying volume has increased when the stock has been pushed down near $4. The shorts want selling volume to pick up at $4 driving the price to $1 or $2. This was Ted’s goal representing the short seller’s playbook.
Lebby stated there will be additional licensing deals signed within two months. I believe that will happen, but I can only hope the licensees will permit more detail to be released in the press releases. At some point “marketing” will become more important than confidentiality.
Good post!
The short interest number is fairly accurate, however I see no value in the days to cover number. One can say it is a relative measure of the volume leading up to the short interest total. True, but irrelevant. There will never be a scenario where the only volume in the coming weeks will be short covering.
There are too many variables that will influence how and how fast the short interest will be covered.
Hahaha! Too many traders say gaps always get filled and I have to admit I have observed that over my 50 years of investing.
I do want to avoid a huge gap up.
Perhaps a typo!
Walter, we know from the ASM that Marcelli would love to fire a taser into the groin of the shorts. If the deal is big enough and comes with details in the PR, we can certainly suggest a late Friday announcement. It will be up to us to make that suggestion because the MZ Group has no imagination and would never think of that on their own!
Lebby will not grant any company a first mover advantage, however the first licensee from May has a seven month advantage over the second licensee. I think you are saying that Lebby announced to the world that they are in the final stages of negotiating additional licensing agreements so don’t get too far behind your competitors.
If you have Hulu, be sure to watch “Reporting for Christmas”. When the credits start to roll at the end, watch to see if you recognize anyone!!
Long term investors are far more preferable than traders. The corporate update letter brought both to the market. The traders are taking profits and the long term investors have put their newly acquired shares “in the vault”. To say it another way, there are fewer shares available to buy. When another deal or two is announced within the next 8 weeks, the move higher will be sharper.
A short squeeze happens when almost all of the trading volume is shorts capitulating (buying) at the same time new shorts are establishing new positions (selling).
When the buyers are covering their short position and the sellers are less sophisticated short sellers establishing new positions, the price can rise while the short interest stays very high. Usually this happens when the smart money is also buying and covering a short position becomes increasingly difficult. Buy stop orders are triggered causing short sellers to drive the price higher as they try to limit their losses. Because the buyers/owners strongly believe in the integrity of the management, they are not willing to sell. As the price of the stock vaults higher, the only way for the shorts to limit their losses is to buy at the market which drives the price even higher. It becomes a frenzy!
X, my hope is that several analysts will start following LW once enough licensing deals are signed and Lebby feels comfortable issuing revenue guidance.
The format will evolve over time and will conform to Generally Accepted Accounting practices.
I couldn’t agree more!
I wonder if the shorts will ask Jim Cramer for help again this year? It didn’t work out for them last year for more than a few days. They have got to use every trick in the book because they don’t have much time left before additional licensing deals get signed. The next one will be a much bigger deal because it will likely involve a foundry. Skywater is a good guess because they have recently installed ALD equipment.