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it was so eloquently stated
IF he said this (I haven't verified), i would have to agree here, that is not a good look for the good doctor. even if you are convinced that he is right, this tin-foil hat comment potentially de-legitimizes him and taints anything else he says.
he's attacking the very core of our entire food and drug regulatory system, without which, as flawed as it may or not be, things would melt down.
can you imagine what would happen to our healthcare system if for some reason the fda was proven to be a political minion? come on.
My little bucket of biotech/rx names are getting a nice bid today, across the board. Been recent chatter about the space being oversold. VIRX, AVXL, ALT, even my speculative bucket NWBO and CVM having a good day. Almost all of these are 2022 catalyst heavy names. Bet the field!
Fwiw (I have no real theory other than sector rotation, but that's a wild guess): Bunch of my small cap drug names had similar closes, volume coming in and pushing up into the close. Some were still off highs of the day, but closing patterns were similar.
AVXL, VSTM, PASG, PSTX. Some more pronounced, but definitely change in action in the last 10-15 minutes.
I added more Friday and today. Science is playing out as expected at this point.
Not sure how all those shares short are going to get covered in a name that trades this thinly.
We get more buy side analysts that are discovering the name pitching it to their pm's, and the buying could create a pretty uncomfortable situation for the those needing to cover.
Volume on sell-off has been pretty light. The strong hands are not letting go. Pfizer and Janssen know what this trial data means for the science.
Remind me: Did he say the journal article has been submitted, or that they were in the journal selection process?
Let’s take inventory. Our current “sell-side” analysts. AF, Joan Lapin, SmithonStocks, and Insiderfinancial (whoever is their author).
Oh yeah, and I get the joke. There is no coverage on the name. None reported on Factset, I have it pulled up as we speak on my other screen.
Also per Factset: 982mm shares, 0.12% Institutional ownership, and 3.27% Insider ownership. There are 2 mutual funds that own .001%.
We can probably all agree this stock is left for dead, it's a CALL OPTION. Only reason I stepped into it last month when I showed up on this board. I think there are enough signals of legitimacy to warrant a position, especially at these levels, so I went long the option.
But the Street has ZERO interest in this name. If I brought this one up as a sell side biotech/Rx research analyst, to my team...actually I'm not sure what they would have done, but I know I'd have lost a ton of credibility. And maybe my job eventually if I were that irresponsible. It's naive to think it belongs in ANY form in a typical institutional portfolio (40 Act fund, pension, bank/insurance co's etc).
This stock has no business in an institutional portfolio AT THIS POINT. Maybe a hedge fund looking for the cheap optionality. But with no institutional coverage, OTC status, 96.6% retail ownership of almost a billion shares....this thing is a total piece of crap. I stepped in because its a xx-bagger if there truly is something approvable, and enough oncologists have shown interest to convince me it's at least north of 1% probability of success.
But don't make it what it's not. Right now their legitimacy as a going concern is in question, and should be.
Combo (with Pfizer's enzalutamide) patients hit PSA90 (a 90% reduction in PSA levels) within 3 MONTHS. By comparison, in enzalutamide's mono trials less than half of patients attained PSA90. Pfizer already owns 4% of EPIX.
Early combo looks terrific. And the mono is doing what they expected, they KNOW they have to adjust trial to focus on AR-driven disease, and they've done that. So going forward mono is till clearly in the game. And combo could be crazy.
No volume on the open, nobody is selling. Strong hands. I'm showing 75% Institutional and 16.65% Insider, including Pfizer with 3.8%. Per Factset.
Yeah. I was a buy side analyst, we were buying the stocks for our funds, the sell side analysts we talked to (at JP Morgan, Jeffries, Morgan Stanley etc etc) were selling us the research and stocks. Thus sell side.
Although we did have two LP's (hedge funds), so when we shorted a stock did that make me a sell side analyst? Hmm. :)
Dr. Ashkan only was allowed 10 minutes to present. Funny.
Sorry BB but I have to agree, had same reaction to the prestigious comment. I mean it's cool and everything, but not like front page of NEJM or all over the nightly news circuits.
I DO think that it further legitimizes the possibility the drug is approvable. It's too uncertain imo to even handicap with a percentage, but having oncologists discuss it publicly and "winning" anything at all like a headline at a conference (e.g. top scoring oral abstract) means there is definitely smoke.
Really hope to see some fire though. And soon would be nice.
Yeah, he point blank said "by the end of June you will see everything that we have". And he emphasized "everything".
If they don't, not sure what that means. But he was VERY specific. I think you can go back and watch the Bloom Burton replay if still out there, I know I'm not crazy. :)
Lol, alright then. Appreciate the conviction.
So you don't think he should take the helm at NWBO then. :)
At least ALT is making me feel better today.
Have to admit, I am getting a bit tired of the silence on NWBO. Also hit CVM recently, and it's interesting how much more the CEO gave us about journal and submitting to RA's for approval.
I remember listening to him thinking "why can't NWBO talk like this". They are in very similar positions. He straight up said to expect things on both fronts over the course of the remainder of the year.
Anyway, still long NWBO though I also have to admit I've been eyeing it as a potential source of funds if I get the entry I've been wanting on another name.
Sigh.
Well, we've got 4 days to see some news.
They definitively said at Bloom Burton "you will see everything we have" (speakinng to monotherapy data).
Wish they would just get it over with at this point.
anybody out there??
involved in the name in its past life, involved again now that it's an obesity/liver name.
In/out of KTRA, currently out. But really want to be in. Have some reasons I don't want to play a Q4/2023 name right now (when their trial data is due to be released). They do have a Ph1 15 person trial due out before then, which could move the stock too of course.
CVM I got back into recently, it's hard to resist a 20% OS short name! And I like the CEO, he reminds me of Musk in some ways.
Let me know if I'm overthinking KTRA and need to roll back in at these levels.
Look up catalyst. Journals, filings, approvals are all potential catalysts on the table, and even if you think it's only a 1% chance, the probability is not zero. Sooo....catalysts?
Also very interested in the valuation work behind $.375 target. Why do you think it's a $350mm market cap company? That's a substantial number at the end of the day, if there are "no more catalysts" and they are no longer a going concern.
Please share with us, for our education and edification, how you arrive at at $350 MILLION MARKET CAP for a company you think is worthless, with no more catalysts?
Or maybe you are Chartered Market Technician, and would like to share the technical analysis behind the price target?
Not holding my breath. Maybe you should move over to Yahoo. The depth of knowledge and expertise on this board is impressive, you are clearly an outlier.
Irrelevant price action jdheart, and if you actually had any market knowledge or experience you would know this.
Most public companies are revenue generating companies, with existing products or capabilities that a target market exists to purchase.
So all else being equal, in the absence of news, the general direction in the vacuum of catalysts will be UP. Which makes sense, as population growth, GDP etc will generally trend upward, lifting (i.e. inflating) everything with it. Part of why stocks are a natural inflation hedge.
BUT Development stage Rx/Biotech are VERY different. Most of them are BURNING cash as they invest in R&D, moving toward what we hope are positive trial results/regulatory decisions. So, imo, these smaller development stage names will often tend to trend sideways or even down, all else being equal, in the absence of any news catalyst. Or at least be more subject to volatility and "trading" action as compared to an Industrial, Staples, Discretionary etc type name. Which makes sense, they are actively deteriorating their capital every day they burn cash without anything to show for it. Then you get the catalyst and they rip, as the market bakes in this new information.
So the immaturity, silliness and stupidity of people that pop up on the board every time this stock sells off is OBVIOUS. They get some serotonin release akin to getting "Likes" on a FB/Instagram post, a quick rush of feeling good because they can say "I told you so". So comical.
So brush the cheeto crumbs off your pj's there champ, your mom will vacuum them up later I'm sure.
In the vacuum of news, we keep bringing up things that don't matter. The FDA argument, whether either side has merit, means zilch here.
Look at dozens of other Rx/biotechs that rip on good data, approvals, sales etc. That go on to either succeed solo, or sell at a much higher price to big Pharma.
That video means nothing, doesn't mean the whole thing is a big conspiracy to screw the little guy. It's all this guy's opinions and views, and technically some of what he said is factual, there IS a lot of money generated by pharma. So what. But the spin is just spin.
I guess if one TRULY believes that the FDA is going to screw NWBO because someone at big pharma wants them out of they way, just sell the stock and move on to something inside your risk tolerance. In fact, if you believe that, you should load up on MRK/PFE et.al., because the game is rigged in their favor.
Dr. Timothy Cloughesy, GCAR, Glioblastoma trial, KTRA
Hope it's ok to ask this here, given overlap w/Glioblastoma. So I was in/out of KTRA some years back, but kept it on my watchlist. Given the topical overlap with NWBO, anyone here have any $.02 on the name or know it at all?
insert-text-here
"VAL-083, is a "first-in-class" small molecule DNA-targeting agent that is currently being evaluated in a biomarker-driven Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of Unmethylated MGMT recurrent glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), the most common and aggressive form of brain cancer. We are also exploring VAL-083 in a Phase 2 trial as a therapy for front-line Unmethylated MGMT GBM and we may study other solid tumors, including ovarian cancer and pediatric CNS tumors."
I've been hearing that the monotherapy data coming this month is less than exciting, and the bigger event will be combination therapy data, which we are 6-12 months away from.
In the meantime, it seems the spreading of this expectation for mediocre monotherapy data has driven short interest through the roof. Hate to say it, but I'm expecting a sharp sell off on the data release. Will likely buy into that drop, unless something concerning in the data.
Regarding emails to IR (& DI's responses)
Agree about phrasing. One of they key skills we developed as buy side equity research analysts was figuring out how to sit across from C-suite guys and have meaningful dialogue without crossing lines. Lots of "what if this or that happened", evaluating probabilities etc, always probing but always giving them all the protection they needed while still talking.
EVEN THEN, with all the access that retail (me included now that I'm out of the game) will NEVER have, it was still VERY hard to do, and that was face-to-face w/CEO/CFO/COO's, in a much higher trust environment (their offices, conference rooms) and speaking with them as large institutional investors in their companies, than we are presently as retail investors pinging the IR guy's email inbox.
FWIW, I don't see anything in any of the responses from DI that I would read ANYTHING into, either good or bad. His job is to be responsive and disseminate what is appropriate and (only) when appropriate. And when it's not appropriate, you ain't getting jack. Which is where we are presently it seems.
Some of the back and forth here is like listening to Vizzini the Sicilian in the Princes Bride poison scene.
Caveat that virtual social connectivity and ecosystems (iHub et al) is a game changer for sniffing things out. Which is why I'm here, there is potential value. But as it relates to DI, all this bickering is over nothing. IMHO.
Agree. I don't see how this doesn't get approved. I'm an old insitutional buy side equity research analyst, biotech/rx on long and long/short funds, CFA charter etc etc...I may be a little rusty, but this would have had my attention front and center back in the day.
I want to know what AF's bear thesis is. The presentation was pretty straight forward. Is it the "small" increase in benefit, or what exactly is his problem with CVM at this point? I'd love to get a recap of his version of his meeting with GK, which is apparently on his website.
LD Micro conference
So serious question, just getting re-involved with the name, what is the consensus of this group as to what could be talked about tonight, and why the timing?
I've read that Geert has been off the radar (in person) for some time now, so is this a big deal for him to be back in the "spotlight" again?
And if there is material positive news, any guesses on what we think happens given that Factset is telling me over 20% of outstanding shares are short? Does this turn into a meme stock?
Hey, me too, over fewer years though. Had sold both, just got back into both recently. Recognized your handle from the NWBO board. Also own PASG and EPIX, but can't get any iHub or SeekingAlpha interest going in them for whatever reason.
I'm looking at CVM as a call option. Low dollar cost, and insane short squeeze would make it act like an option if it works, right.
Anyway, good luck, appreciate the views and opinions on both names.
So is there anything fundamentally new on the name, I'm still catching up. A blind ASCO trade (the recent move, not your trade, hah), or is there truly something potentially finally happening/moving forward.
I've been out of the name for awhile, just bought back in again yesterday. So did you just initiate a new position again as well? Remember reading your posts from when I owned it before. Hope things are well.
I also just stepped back into NWBO. :)
I concur. Absolutely nothing in the way of shares going lower. Really there is no logical explanation for why they leveled off around 70 cents, is there? Why not 80, or 50...
What we do know (like practically every small cap biotech/pharma name) is that the name is not worth where it is now. It's worth a nickel or worth something well north of here measured in dollars (not opining on multiples), but it sure ain't 70 cents.
So there is absolutely a fully reasonable chance that "disappointing" (relative term) ASCO, journal timing etc could see this thing half of where it is.
If it does, I'll double down my position, because ultimately I do think it gets approved.
I'm also objective enough to realize that dilution, timing, or even a "we like the data, now go do a trial designed this way" could take the stock far south of where it is now. But it's like a call option at this point (unless you've been holding this thing for a long time, my sincere angst for you if so). Super cheap premium for huge potential upside.
Just my humble musings and beliefs.
ihub event
Nothing really to do except same ole banter while we wait for significant event.
So a positive distraction: once we get a significant event that triggers the stock to really start discounting in drug approval, are we having an ihub NWBO dinner somewhere? NY, London, Atlanta, Chicago...wherever is easiest for everyone to get to. Or Baltimore/DC (near Bethesda), have a drink outside NWBO HQ?
Also, we should all wear nametags with our ihub nicknames on them so we know who's who.
"The entire thought of allowing shorting stock and the resulting destruction is reprehensible."
I think the same thing is about to happen to EPIX, just 4 weeks from now. Small cap low volume name, and short interest has gone from basically zero to 12.5 days to cover in just the last few weeks. They are releasing data on monotherapy in June, likely to be "ok" with the more important combo data not for another 6 months. I feel a short attack coming like what we got in NWBO. We'll see if I'm wrong. Disclosure, owned the name since 2019, my largest position.
Difference is institutional ownership, NWBO has very little and EPIX is heavy, with PFE owning about 4% of the company. But it's pretty thinly traded imo, so subject to being screwed with?
love hoffman's endings, i laugh ever time i read them...
my new life's goal is to get a "have a good one catinhat, bye!"
So I fell a little behind here (likely not alone): can you put this recent back and forth in more simplistic terms, i.e. 1) the question/problem, 2) likely theories to explain said question/problem, and 3) impact based on these theoretical answers?
Would appreciate it much.
That is a really old article...
Only two green numbers on my watchlist today: the VIX and NWBO. Been awhile at these price levels that the S&P put up a 4% down day!
Agree with what both bull/bears have said today about NWBO, we're kind of sitting around conversing amongst ourselves until journal/filing/approval, the meaningful things that move a stock, and for good reasons. Today just wasn't new/unexpected. Nice validation though, I take it as NWBO still having a pulse. So I remain long.
That's what I was thinking...
Reddit
So don't blow me up, I'm old school biotech analyst and we didn't have meme stocks back in the day. Long NWBO.
The strength of this board is impressing me quite a bit. What kind of impact if any would this board have if all the activity was taking place on Reddit?
No offense, but I stumbled across Investorshub by accident really. What about taking it more mainstream, in addition to what is happening on TWTR?
Just got involved recently. Plenty of cash and upcoming catalysts.
Anything new on this:
The company announced they completed enrollment in Part A of RAMP 201 of VS-6766 +/- Defactinib in LGSOC. They anticipate report results from Part A in Q2.
"Changing endpoints at gov is not going to do a damn thing"
Agree.